Will John Lackey Tip the Balance of Power Northward in the AL East?

Let’s set the debate aside for the moment over the Red Sox's shift in philosophy.

Volumes were written this winter (here and elsewhere) about the front office’s desire to transition the team more towards pitching and defense.

What can be said with near certainty is that once Theo and Company decided to head in this direction, it was clear the club should spend its $80 million on pitcher John Lackey instead of hitter Jason Bay.

The acquisition of Lackey did several things.

It extended the rotation. It gave the club three potential aces atop the rotation. It provides the front office with the luxury of including Clay Buchholz in a deal for 1B Adrian Gonzalez at the trade deadline IF the front office determines the offense to be wanting as the season progresses.

But did it tip the balance of power in the AL East?

Over his career, Lackey is just 5-7, with a 4.66 ERA, against the New York Yankees—a stat line that does nothing to suggest he will make a difference in the two teams' head-to-head matchup. For the sake of this particular discussion, it’s important to remember that each game against the Yankees represents a two-game swing in the standings.

But over the last five years, Lackey is 4-2, with a tidy 3.38 ERA, against the Evil Empire in 10 regular season starts. Juxtaposed against the record of teammates Josh Beckett and Jon Lester (who own a collective 4.87 ERA against the Yankees), we understand a little more about his importance in the middle of the rotation.

Add Lackey’s postseason success against New York to the equation (he has a 3.04 ERA against them in four career playoff appearances), and we can deduce that there are several levels on which the big righty may help the Red Sox play late into October.

Lastly, in consideration of MLB’s unbalanced schedule, it is also important to take note of his success against the other teams in the East division—the clubs he will now face in a majority of his starts. Over his career, he has posted the following stat line against the other three AL East opponents:

Baltimore: 8-3, 3.16 ERA, 1.210 WHIP
Tampa Bay: 9-2, 3.07 ERA, 1.106 WHIP
Toronto: 3-3, 3.31 ERA, 1.105 WHIP

That’s not to say this level of success will continue. Division opponents will invariably get more familiar with his tendencies as they see him more frequently. But based on what we know now, it appears he could be a guy who CAN tip the balance of power in the East towards the Red Sox.

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