Since Elijah Dukes’ release a few weeks ago, one of the main questions coming out of Viera Florida was just exactly who was going to be part of the team’s platoon in right field in 2010.
It didn’t take long for manager Jim Riggleman to announce that veteran utility player Willie Harris would be the left-handed component of the platoon.
For a time, Justin Maxwell seemed to be the logical choice to be the right-handed bat, but a 5-for-49 spring pretty much ended that possibility before it even began.
Than Mike Morse, who is as natural a hitter as I’ve ever seen, seemed the heir apparent, and his .304-2-7 spring did nothing but reaffirm his status as a solid major leaguer.
But no, he’ll be a backup.
On Thursday, the question was answered when Willy Taveras was named the right-handed bat that would platoon with Harris.
Now remember, the whole idea of releasing Dukes was that the Nationals believed that they could field a better hitting, better fielding right-fielder from among the spare parts currently on the team’s roster.
So whoever they chose would obviously be better—or at least as good—as the departed Dukes.
Let’s see what kind of numbers they need to beat as Dukes’ replacement. Here are Dukes’ career statistics based on a 162-game season:
Average
.242
Hits
134
Doubles
26
Triples
5
Home Runs
21
RBI
83
On-base Percentage
.350
Slugging Percentage
.421
Other than the batting average (brought down by an ugly .190 effort in his rookie year with Tampa), those are certainly upper-level major league numbers.
Add his quality defense, and Elijah Dukes—at least on the field—will be difficult to replace.
Defensively, both Harris and Taveras have the speed to play right field, but interestingly, they never have. Of Harris’ 2,780 career innings in the outfield, just 10 of them have come in right. And Taveras has played right in just one inning out of 4,297.
So, the Nationals replaced a natural right-fielder with two guys who have combined to play 11 innings there.
I’ll wait for a moment to let that sink in.
Here is Taveras’ defensive scouting report from armchairgm.com:
“His defense can best be described as inconsistent. His outstanding speed allows him to get to balls most other center fielders won't even try for, but his routes often leave a lot to be desired. He struggles going straight back for fly balls, and will take odd routes on balls hit into the gaps.”
TSN.ca calls Harris’ defense “inconsistent,” adding that he makes more errors than a player of his speed and agility should.
So the Nationals defense certainly hasn’t been improved by Dukes’ release.
Offensively, Willy Taveras doesn’t hit left-handers nearly as well as a right-hander should. Here are his career splits versus lefties based on 239 at-bats (about the number you would expect a platoon right-hander to get in a season):
Batting Average
.262 (63/239)
Doubles
10
Triples
1
Home Runs
0
RBI
10
Steals
10
Strikeouts
39
Walks
34
On-base Percentage
.309
Slugging Percent
.326
And here are Willie Harris’ career splits against right-handers (assuming 400 at-bats, about right for a lefty platoon bat):
Batting Average
.255 (102/400)
Doubles
15
Triples
4
Home Runs
5
RBI
33
Steals
19
Strikeouts
70
Walks
49
On-base Percentage
.340
Slugging Percentage
.361
Usually players who platoon hit pitchers who throw from their opposite side extremely well while being unable to hit the same-side pitchers.
Nyjer Morgan, for example, would be an ideal platoon player. He has a career .330/.380/.420 line against right-handers, but hits just .200/.302/.284 against lefties.
But Harris’ batting average is just 54 points higher against righties, and Taveras actually hits 18 points worse against lefties than he does against right-handers.
Based on their career averages and the proper number of at-bats, this is how a platoon of Willie Harris and Willy Taveras should hit for the Nationals this season:
Average
.258 (165/639)
On-base Percentage
.321
Slugging Percent
.339
Doubles
25
Triples
4
Home Runs
5
RBI
43
Steals
31
When the Nationals released Dukes, I assumed that the team believed that they had two players already on the roster who could at least come close to replicating what the talented, but troubled, player could have provided.
But instead the team chose the two players who were least able to do that. Dukes had power and a solid on-base percentage. His replacements have no power and embarrassingly low on-base percentages.
Both Harris and Taveras have shown that they are not capable of playing every day at the major league level. I worry that one—or perhaps both—will show that even as part-time players they bring no real assets to the team other than their speed.
It is obvious, then, as to what has happened. The Nationals were content to replace a gifted malcontent with two solid citizens who won’t help the club on the field.
The problems in the clubhouse, it would seem, were so divisive that the team gladly gave up 15 or so homers and 60 or so RBI (the difference in production between Dukes and Harris/Taveras) for a little peace and quiet.
I have never met Elijah Dukes so I cannot speak to the type of person he is, or the problems he may have caused.
I can say with certainty, however, that Willie Harris and Willy Taveras can’t come close to replacing Dukes, and the team may come to question their decision if the Nationals play well in 2010 and end up being just one power-bat short of 82 wins.
I am not saying the Nationals made a mistake by releasing Dukes, but the choice of Taveras and Harris as his replacement may haunt the team all summer long.
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