After a dominating sweep of the Chicago Cubs in the National League Championship Series, the New York Mets are the early favorites to win their first championship since 1986, according to Odds Shark.
The Mets narrowly edged the Kansas City Royals in the most updated odds, released before the end of the American League Championship Series.
One team is assured to snap a lengthy title drought. The Royals and Mets last won championships in the 1985 and 1986 seasons, respectively.
The Mets entered the postseason 11-26 in the regular season against fellow playoff teams, but that seems like ages ago. They won their first two playoff series against the favored Los Angeles Dodgers and Cubs in convincing fashion behind outstanding pitching and a rejuvenated offense.
The Mets have averaged 6.1 runs per game these playoffs against the likes of Jon Lester, Jake Arrieta, Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke.
But now comes the most monumental test yet.
They'll face a Royals team hungry and experienced after losing it all last year in Game 7. New York went 4-1 on the road in the first two rounds but will go into the hostile confines of Kauffman Stadium for Games 1 and 2 and possibly Games 6 and 7.
With the World Series just days away, here's a guide to the Fall Classic.
Pitching
The Mets might not be here if it wasn't for their sensational pitching staff. Matt Harvey, Noah Syndergaard and Jacob deGrom are a combined 6-1 with a 2.36 ERA over 45.2 innings this postseason. In that span, they've allowed just 12 hits and struck out 63. Steven Matz, reliable but not among the dominant trio, rounds out the four-man playoff rotation.
Mets pitchers allowed 3.2 runs per game from the Dodgers and Cubs. What's scary is that they're improving as the postseason progresses. In the NLCS, the Mets held the Cubs to a .164 batting average, a .225 on-base percentage and a .297 slugging percentage—a team that had homered 10 times in four games during the National League Division Series.
By sweeping the Cubs, the Mets were afforded a full five days' rest, which allows manager Terry Collins to keenly set his rotation—which could feature Matt Harvey more than expected, per Anthony DiComo of MLB.com:
As DiComo indicates, it's interesting that deGrom is the pitcher who may be limited. Harvey is in his first season back from Tommy John surgery and was the center of speculation when he wouldn't confirm nor deny he'd even pitch in the postseason in September. Harvey's doctors set a 180-innings high mark for the right-hander, yet he's at 202 innings, fifth-most by a pitcher in his first season back from Tommy John, according to Kristie Ackert of the New York Daily News.
Marc Craig of Newsday reported deGrom and Harvey will start Games 1 and 2 though the order isn't yet determined, while Syndergaard will start Game 3.
Regardless, manager Terry Collins is confident in anyone he sends out, per Ackert:
These guys are going to be really good and this experience is going to make them that much better. The extra rest we're gonna get right now I think is going to benefit us more than it's gonna hurt us. That's who we're going to ride. I don't care who we play, you gotta like our pitching. ... You name it, we've pitched good. These guys are good. I have a lot of confidence in them.
The Mets will have the starting pitching advantage. The Royals have had muddled starts from the top of their rotation, highlighted by an eight-run outing from Johnny Cueto in Game 3 of the ALCS. Overall, Royals pitchers had a combined 5.98 ERA this postseason entering Friday’s Game 6.
Offense
The Mets have pitched comfortably this postseason in large part to consistent offense that has averaged 6.1 runs per game and never trailed once in the NLCS. As great as the pitching has been, Bernie Pleskoff of MLBPipeline.com noted their success is rooted in balance:
Yet in the final week of July, the Mets were second in the NL East, and their offense ranked dead last in scoring. Not many envisioned a turn-around, particularly ESPN.com's Jayson Stark.
"Who could have seen this?," Stark wrote. "Who could have known? Who could have envisioned that three months later, the New York Mets would be heading for their first World Series in 15 years?"
It took a midseason makeover to get the lineup to championship caliber. The Mets called up Michael Conforto, activated Travis d'Arnaud and traded for Juan Uribe and Yoenis Cespedes. Over the final two months, the Mets averaged 5.4 runs per game, a massive surplus to the 3.5 they posted prior to the trade deadline.
There's little doubt they might not be here if it wasn't for their complete offensive reconstruction.
The Royals, meanwhile, entered Friday's Game 6 having scored 58 runs this postseason and 33 in the series alone. Perhaps what's most impressive is their efficiency; they put the ball in play an MLB-high 74 percent of the time while striking out an MLB-low 15.9 percent of the time, according to Jay Jaffe of Sports Illustrated.
The Royals have proved all postseason they can manufacture runs when needed.
On the brink of elimination in Game 4 of the ALDS against the Houston Astros, the Royals scored five runs in the eighth inning to shift the series back home. In Game 2 of the ALCS, they padded five in the eighth inning against Blue Jays ace David Price in a 6-3 win. Even in an 11-8 loss in Game 3 of the ALCS, they churned in four in the ninth to make the score respectable. And then, of course, there's Game 5 of the ALCS, in which they smacked in 14 to take a commanding 3-1 series lead.
Given the balance each team possesses and the potential to counter each other's attack, this series has the shape to go deep.
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