There's a sadness that comes at the end of September because Major League Baseball's regular season is coming to an end, but it quickly gives way to excitement knowing the World Series will be decided in October.
This year's postseason is especially enticing than ever because there's not one dominant team clearly playing better than everyone else. The National League Central has arguably the three best teams in baseball, but one of those teams will be sent home after the Wild Card Game.
Toronto is the trendy pick in the American League, but Kansas City still has the best record, and Texas is 30-17 since the start of August.
As was proven last season, the wild cards are not to be taken lightly. This has already been a strange year for MLB, so October should be insane.
2015 World Series Schedule
Bold World Series Predictions
St. Louis Won't Play in the World Series...
Since the 2015 season started, the Kansas City Royals and St. Louis Cardinals have been the best teams in their respective leagues. It seemed a foregone conclusion that the I-70 series would be renewed to determine baseball's champion for months.
A funny thing has happened along the way, though: Other teams have caught up to them.
The Cardinals, despite being the first team to clinch a playoff berth, only have a four-game lead over Pittsburgh. Those two teams play a final three-game series from Sept. 28-30 that will determine the division winner.
By the way, per ESPN's Buster Olney, the Chicago Cubs have been the league's best team by record for nearly two months:
Aside from playing in a division with those two teams, the Cardinals have been able to thrive despite key players missing a lot of time this year.
That doesn't even include the two stints Matt Holliday spent on the disabled list due to leg injuries, or Randal Grichuk's three-week absence due to an elbow problem earlier this season.
There is some hope in St. Louis that Adam Wainwright can return to pitch out of the bullpen this season after he was cleared for baseball activities, per MLB.com's Jenifer Langosch.
"I think I'd have a much higher confidence level to have him throw in-season before you put him on the [playoff] roster," Cardinals general manager John Mozeliak told Langosch. "If you recall the last time he was in the bullpen, he was pretty good."
That would be a huge boost to the Cardinals' pitching staff, but St. Louis is 9-10 in September and has been outscored by 26 runs (93-67) entering play on Tuesday.
Granted, recency bias can lead to a lot of problems, but looking at how deep the NL is, the Cubs, Pirates and Dodgers all look better built to play in October because of how dominant the top of their rotations can be.
The Dodgers and Cubs can beat a pitching staff into submission, ranking sixth and ninth in home runs, respectively, so St. Louis' once-dominant run in the NL doesn't look like it will have a happy ending.
...Neither Will Kansas City
The Royals are going to cruise to an AL Central title, but they look as flawed now as they have at any point this season. Johnny Cueto hasn't been the ace they traded for, posting a 5.12 ERA with just 6.4 strikeouts per nine innings in 10 starts.
By comparison, Cueto had a 2.62 ERA and 8.3 strikeouts per nine innings in 19 starts with Cincinnati before the trade.
That once-vaunted bullpen is not the same as it was last year. Something has happened to Greg Holland, as his drop in velocity is getting harder to ignore, via ESPN Stats & Info:
Kelvin Herrera's ERA in the second half is 3.90 in 27 games. Wade Davis remains spectacular, but it was the way Royals manager Ned Yost deployed all three of his weapons last year that got Kansas City within one win of a championship.
Kansas City still has the AL's best defense, with FanGraphs crediting it with 56 runs saved. But with so many questions in the rotation starting with Cueto and late in games with the bullpen, how do you trust this team to make another deep October run?
Canada vs. Hollywood
The Toronto Blue Jays are the AL's best team, regardless of what records say, right now. They are also the most dangerous team because no one can match their offensive firepower.
Entering play Tuesday, the Blue Jays had scored 103 more runs than any other team in baseball. They are on pace for 891 runs scored, which would be the most by a team in a season since the 2009 New York Yankees.
Unlike the Royals, who are trying to figure out what's gone wrong with their big midseason acquisition, the Blue Jays have gotten more than they could have hoped for from David Price since acquiring him from Detroit.
Just as important as Price's individual performance for the Blue Jays is how the rest of the pitching staff has followed his lead. Toronto leads the AL with a 3.21 ERA and .664 OPS against in the second half.
It was hard enough to beat Toronto knowing it would take at least five runs every night to do so, but adding one of the sport's best pitchers to an otherwise solid staff took the Blue Jays from interesting novelty to AL pennant favorite.
With Kansas City not looking as strong, Texas still lacking pitching depth behind Cole Hamels and New York being dominated by its division rivals this season, the Blue Jays have a clear path to make the World Series for the first time since the franchise's last title in 1993.
Their opponent in that series could be any of the NL Central teams, but this feels like the year Los Angeles finally gets over that St. Louis-sized hump that's stood in its way the past two years.
I will admit that part of me just wants to see the Dodgers win the NL so that the ridiculous narrative of Clayton Kershaw not being a good playoff pitcher dies. He had three consecutive starts allowing a total of one earned run with 23 strikeouts in 19 innings against Atlanta and St. Louis in 2013, for example.
Has Kershaw had bad starts in the playoffs? Absolutely, but the sample size is so small that no one can definitively say he's terrible in October. Did Alex Rodriguez suddenly find his clutch gene during the 2009 postseason when he hit .365/.500/.808 in helping New York win a World Series?
But aside from getting rid of the Kershaw narrative, he and Zack Greinke are operating on a different level than any other NL pitcher with the exception of Chicago's Jake Arrieta. L.A.'s aces rank first (Kershaw) and third (Greinke) in FanGraphs' wins above replacement among NL pitchers.
The biggest concern for the Dodgers in October is offense. They rank 27th out of 30 teams in runs scored since the All-Star break, but the addition of rookie shortstop Corey Seager has provided a spark. He may not continue to post a 1.086 OPS in October, though it would be hard to do worse than Jimmy Rollins' .630 mark.
Seager isn't a good defensive player at shortstop, but when Kershaw is almost a lock to strike out 10 and Greinke can punch out hitters with the best of them, defense doesn't become as critical as it would if a pitch-to-contact ground-ball guy is on the mound.
The Dodgers don't have a deep lineup, but with those two starters able to go at least three times in a five-game series and four times in a seven-game series, they don't have to score much to win.
That's why the Blue Jays and Dodgers will meet in the World Series to determine MLB's champion for the 2015 season.
Stats via Baseball-Reference.com and ESPN.com unless otherwise noted
Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com
- Login to post comments