For the most part during Friday night's contest at Rogers Centre, the red-hot Toronto Blue Jays had the New York Yankees in the same place they had them last weekend: right where they wanted 'em.
That is until, all of a sudden, there was a loud bang. And right now in the aftershock, it's clear that what's left of the AL East race is going to be all sorts of fun instead of a one-sided romp.
If you missed it, the Blue Jays were leading the Yankees by a 3-0 score heading into the eighth inning Friday night. But then there were back-to-back one-out singles by Mark Teixeira and Brian McCann, and an RBI ground-rule double by Chase Headley. In came Aaron Sanchez to relieve starter David Price, and stepping to the plate to pinch-hit was Carlos Beltran.
On a 1-2 count, he proceeded to do this:
That, folks, is a go-ahead three-run dinger. And quite an unlikely one at that.
For one, the Blue Jays bullpen had been riding a 25-inning scoreless streak right up until Beltran's blast cleared the fence. For two, Katie Sharp of River Ave. Blues notes that Beltran's not in the habit of crushing hard fastballs like that:
For three, that was only the second pinch-hit homer of Beltran's 18-year career. But then again, credit goes to him for knowing the score.
“You’ve got to be prepared, because you never know when the manager is going to use you in a game,” Beltran said after the contest, via Billy Witz of the New York Times.
Regardless of how unlikely that homer was, it definitely happened. And with a 4-3 lead in their hands, the Yankees turned to Dellin Betances in the eighth and Andrew Miller in the ninth. Though Miller made it interesting, they both did their jobs to seal the deal.
And just like that, the AL East race no longer has the Blue Jays at the head of the pack. They went from eight back to a half game up in a span of just 15 days, but now it's the Yankees who are back on top by a half game.
Of course, this is a lead that could be gone for good as soon as Saturday. And maybe it will be. But for now, it stands as an excuse for the Yankees to make like O-Ren Ishii and ask: "You didn't think it was gonna be that easy, did you?"
To fully appreciate the comeback the Yankees pulled off, we need to understand just how doomed they seemed to be.
It wasn't just that they were getting beat by a formidable opponent. They were getting beat by an opponent whom they knew all too well to be formidable. When the Blue Jays and Yankees hooked up last weekend in the Bronx, Toronto allowed New York just one run en route to win Nos. 6, 7 and 8 in its 11-game win streak.
Oh, and there was also the fact that David Price was on the mound. This would be the same David Price who held the Yankees to just three hits in seven scoreless innings in a 6-0 victory last Saturday. And yes, this is also the same David Price who has a shot at a second Cy Young in four years.
Double-Oh, there was also the reality that Price was going up against a cold offense. The Yankees entered Friday's contest having scored just 17 runs over their last eight games, seven of which resulted in defeat. Opponents held them to one or fewer runs five times in that span.
Triple-Oh, there was also how the setting the Yankees were attempting to wake up in was no normal setting. A crowd of 46,689 showed up at Rogers Centre, and Wallace Matthews of ESPN.com was one of many to note that nobody was mistaking the stadium for a library:
According to FanGraphs, at one point victory was a 95.4 percent certainty for the Blue Jays. That's a big number, to be sure. But most who were watching the game would have put the number closer to 100 percent. The Yankees were capital-D Doomed.
Until, of course, they weren't. But though that was surprising in the moment, should we be so surprised in retrospect?
There's no question the Blue Jays are the flavor of the month in Major League Baseball, but let's not pretend like they took the AL East lead from a sinking ship. The Yankees went into Friday night's contest as losers of six of eight, yes. But before that, they had won 19 out of 27.
And if any team was going to come back and win a game like that with a clutch bomb and late-inning relief pitching, shoot, why not the Yankees?
The home run has been New York's primary means of attack all season long, as only the Blue Jays and Houston Astros have hit more dingers than they have. The same goes for late home runs, as the Yankees rank third in MLB in dingers hit from the seventh to ninth innings.
Then there's that late-inning duo. With a combined 1.60 ERA and 157 strikeouts in 101.2 innings this season, there may not be a more dominant relief duo in the game than Betances and Miller. If the Yankees can get a lead to the eighth inning, it's pretty much over.
This is the formula that's been working for New York all season: Get a lead via dingers, and then use Betances and Miller to nail it down. The Yankees proved it still works on Friday night.
And there are few reasons to think it can't keep working in the final weeks of the season. The only real gripe to be made about New York now is that its starting pitching doesn't measure up, but that's not news. The Yankees rotation has been volatile from Day 1, but homers and relief pitching have been more than good enough to pick up the slack.
With the Yankees lineup, Betances and Miller still at full strength, that's as good a bet as any to continue.
Mind you, none of this is to suggest that the Blue Jays should be shaking in their boots after losing Friday's game. It's only one loss, and one loss after 11 straight wins doesn't look so bad.
But make no mistake: The picture has changed. The Yankees don't get to be called the team to beat just because they're in first place. But the odds do reflect how the AL East now looks like anyone's race. Per FanGraphs, the Blue Jays' 48.7 percent chance of winning the division puts them just a hair ahead of the Yankees and their 47.2 percent chance.
In other words: Buckle up. Thanks to Beltran's clout, the AL East race just got a hell of a lot more interesting. And with a little under two months to go, it figures to stay that way.
Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and Fan Graphs unless otherwise noted/linked.
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