Some expected the Texas Rangers to address their pitching need on the free-agent market. Instead, they've dipped their feet in the trade waters, acquiring Yovani Gallardo from the Milwaukee Brewers on Monday.
Yahoo Sports' Jeff Passan reported the news as well as Milwaukee's return in the deal:
Jeff Wilson of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram noted one interesting financial point of the deal:
Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports noted on Tuesday that the Rangers weren't planning on letting Gallardo simply be a one-year rental acquisition:
Gallardo, 28, has spent each of his eight MLB seasons in Milwaukee. A second-round pick in 2004, Gallardo quickly made his way through the organization's minor league system and has become one of the game's most consistent starters.
In his seven full campaigns, Gallardo has put up an ERA between 3.51 and 3.84 in six. The lone exception was a lost 2013 season when he set a ton of career worsts as his strikeout rate dropped.
While his strikeout rate is still alarmingly low—Gallardo's 6.8 strikeouts per nine innings in 2014 is nearly two fewer than his career average, per Baseball-Reference—he's gotten better at pitching to contact.
It'll be interesting to see what version of Gallardo shows up with a full-time move to the American League. His wins above replacement (FanGraphs' formula) has dropped in four straight seasons from a career-best 4.5 in 2010. His Steamer projection expects it to drop again in 2015, though that's yet to be adjusted for his move to Texas.
The Rangers will have to hope a location change sparks a rejuvenation. Gallardo might not cost as much financially as a big-name free agent—Spotrac indicates he'll make $13 million in the final year of his current deal—but he does come with other, more concerning costs.
Giving up prospects for a veteran is always a calculated risk that could either wildly backfire or look like genius within a couple of years.
Gallardo will not only have to avoid continued regression but also help lead Texas back to the postseason to make the cost worth it.
The Rangers finished with an AL-worst 67 wins last season, a campaign in which everything that could go wrong did. They lost Prince Fielder, Shin-Soo Choo, Yu Darvish and others to long-term injuries and had perhaps the worst pitching staff in baseball.
Texas had the fewest quality starts of any team, was 22nd in starter wins above replacement and was a bottom-five team in ERA, WHIP and batting average against. Nick Tepesch, who finished 5-11 with a 4.36 ERA, was the team's best starter other than Darvish.
Expectations are far higher heading into 2015, when the Rangers expect everyone to be healthy and back to their previous performance level.
But if Gallardo doesn't perform as expected, they'll be right back where they were: a one-man band of a pitching staff that cannot possibly sustain itself.
Gallardo is certainly an interesting bet to say the least. He's still relatively young and has made at least 30 starts in each of the last six seasons. That's the good side.
The bad side is that there isn't a real elite ceiling here. Gallardo at his best tops out as a pretty good starting pitcher. Given the way his strikeout rate has declined without a real downtick in walks, it's likely we've already seen the best of him.
With that said, it's certainly a smaller risk than offering nine figures to a free agent.
Unless otherwise noted, statistics courtesy of FanGraphs and Team Rankings.
Follow Tyler Conway on Twitter @tylerconway22.
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