And we’re off.
The trade market for starting pitchers has already started establishing itself at the MLB winter meetings with the Oakland A’s continuing their busy offseason by trading Jeff Samardzija to the Chicago White Sox, a move reported by Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com. Whether more moves come during the meetings or later, this is likely just the kicking off of big-name starters being traded over the next two months.
Two arms less likely to be moved are also two of the best and most intriguing. Los Angeles Dodgers right-hander Zack Greinke and Detroit Tigers lefty David Price have gotten the rumor mill churning because both could potentially be going into contract years. And any deal for them would be a major rotation upgrade for whatever team landed either pitcher.
Andrew Friedman has spoken with Zack Greinke but not about Greinke's opt-out after 2015. Friedman willing to let year play out
— Eric Stephen (@truebluela) December 9, 2014
About trades, Dombrowski said he doesn't anticipate the team trading a starting pitcher for a corner outfielder.
— anthony fenech (@anthonyfenech) December 5, 2014
Again, neither pitcher is anything close to a safe bet to be traded. The Dodgers are about winning a World Series, and they know Greinke is a major reason for those expectations. The Tigers are already losing out on Max Scherzer and need Price to be at the top of their rotation if they are going to fend off the Kansas City Royals and Chicago White Sox in their division.
Still, both teams would be willing to listen to offers. But with everything considered—current contract situations, cost in trade, age, etc.—which front-line pitcher would be the better target?
There are two reasons the Dodgers might consider trading Greinke, an idea first brought on by the team’s quest for free-agent pitcher Jon Lester and told to Chris Cotillo of MLB Daily Dish.
The first is that Greinke has a clause in his six-year, $147 million contract that allows him to opt out and become a free agent at the end of next season, essentially making 2015 a contract year. Greinke will make $23 million next year and will be owed $71 million in the final three. If Greinke pitches as he has the last two seasons—a 2.68 ERA over 60 starts—he can likely get more than a three-year, $71 million deal as a 32-year-old ace on the open market.
The second reason is that the Dodgers are still raking over the free-agent market to fill out their rotation, and they have already made a play for Lester. Even if they don’t land him, Scherzer and James Shields would be options. If they get Lester or Scherzer and Greinke does not opt out after next season, the team will have committed more than $400 million to Greinke, Clayton Kershaw and Lester or Scherzer.
“I think we definitely want to figure out how to add at least one more arm from the outside, whether that be via trade or free agency,” Dodgers President of Baseball Operations Andrew Friedman told reporters at the winter meetings Monday (via Dylan Hernandez of the Los Angeles Times.)
If the Dodgers do entertain trade offers for Greinke after signing Lester or Scherzer—they likely would not want to trade Greinke if they sign Shields—the cost will be, and should be, astronomical for the buying team. Greinke would be a legitimate ace, and if he does not choose to opt out, he would cost less than market value at that point.
The obvious risk for the buying team is Greinke opting out. A trade for him would most likely have to come with an assurance that Greinke would play out his current contract. If the buying team gets that, the Dodgers would be justified in asking for the other organization’s top young talent.
Price wins this debate when it comes to immediate cost and age. He will turn 30 in August and will cost the Tigers, or another team, between $18-19 million.
Price has not been as productive as Greinke the last two seasons, but he has proven to be durable and is still a top-of-the-rotation arm. He led the American League in innings pitched, strikeouts and starts in 2014.
The Tigers are already losing a huge piece of their rotation in Scherzer, so they clearly don’t want to lose another in Price. That is why teams asking about his availability are likely to be handed a huge price tag, especially since the Tigers’ farm system is among the worst in baseball.
So far, that hasn’t scared teams from at least asking.
Sources: #Tigers drawing strong interest in Price, Porcello. Both entering FA years, as are Zimmermann, Samardzija, etc. All still in play.
— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) December 4, 2014
As of the middle of October, the Tigers had not discussed a contract extension with Price, but it is assumed they will at some point before next season. If the club gets the indication that Price will definitely test free agency, a trade becomes more likely. But Price could elect to stick it out in Detroit since the free-agent market for starters next season could be ripe with the likes of Jordan Zimmerman, Doug Fister and Johnny Cueto among others.
Based on impact, Greinke is a better play on the trade market. He is also slightly less of a risk since Price is in a definite contract year and Greinke has the choice to play out his current deal, which would give a team four years of his services. Greinke has also pitched in the American League, the better offensive league, so that would not be a concern for an AL club looking to acquire him.
Both teams will probably hang onto each pitcher, but that knowledge won’t stop teams from peppering the Dodgers and Tigers with inquiries at these winter meetings.
Anthony Witrado covers Major League Baseball for Bleacher Report. He spent the previous three seasons as the national baseball columnist at Sporting News and four years before that as the Brewers beat writer for the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. Follow Anthony on Twitter @awitrado and talk baseball here.
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