Opting out didn't surprise anybody.
Not the Los Angeles Dodgers decision-makers, not the team's fans, not the media that covers the organization and entire industry, not the man’s teammates, and not rival teams.
No one was stunned when ace Zack Greinke left $71 million and three years in his wake by opting out of his deal with the Dodgers. With possibly double that dollar total available in free agency after Greinke's outstanding and historic 2015 season, it was the right-hander's best option.
However, just because Greinke is on the open market and available to virtually any team he wants to play for does not mean he should leave Los Angeles or his co-ace, Clayton Kershaw. And according to Jon Heyman of CBS Sports, the team has made convincing Greinke of that its top priority this offseason.
That would be wise, because without Greinke, the Dodgers rotation suddenly becomes thin and questionable after Kershaw. But for Greinke, signing up to be a Dodger for what will likely be the rest of his career makes just as much sense, as he can be part of the game's best 1-2 punch with Kershaw.
There have been almost no reports about Greinke's thinking since the Dodgers' season ended in the National League Division Series. All we know for certain is that Greinke had nice things to say immediately after the playoff run ended.
"That would be nice," Greinke told reporters last month when asked if he wanted to return to the Dodgers. "I guess that is my whole response."
That was not the whole response, though.
"It's got to be the best franchise in the game, I would think," Greinke added. "They're in a great situation."
The comments might be enough to get Dodgers fans to think Greinke, who had a 1.66 ERA and 225 ERA+ last season, will re-sign with the team before next spring training. Then again, it is common baseball knowledge by now that Greinke chose the Dodgers in the first place mostly because they were able to offer him the most money.
The Dodgers are still in position to be able to do that this winter, but there is going to be competition and possibly just as much money offered by other clubs. For instance, the rival San Francisco Giants are reported to have serious interest in Greinke, who finished second in the National League Cy Young Award voting and was the league's Player's Choice Outstanding Pitcher. The Giants could make him their No. 1 target this offseason, significantly boosting their rotation while weakening the Dodgers, who have won the NL West in three consecutive seasons.
rivals giants seen as threat to steal greinke away from dodgers. https://t.co/uKo2R2JiCo
— Jon Heyman (@JonHeymanCBS) November 20, 2015
The Giants are not the only big-money team with potential eyes for the ace. The Boston Red Sox are being speculated to have real interest by Ken Rosenthal (h/t CBS Sports), and despite their mantra to not spend big in free agency, it would be negligent to not believe the New York Yankees could jump into the fray.
For Greinke, the problem with those places could be the clubhouse atmosphere and media coverage. While Los Angeles is a major world market, the traveling media corps is relatively small and far less critical than ones in Boston or New York, where every misplaced fastball might be chronicled as the end of good times and evidence of Greinke's nine-figure contract being a busted one.
In October, Scott Lauber of the Boston Herald quoted a source close to Greinke as saying he "definitely wouldn't want any more stress or additional media attention" with a new club. Greinke, who has discussed his social anxiety disorder and clinical depression in the past, would be walking into exactly that if he ended up with the Red Sox or Yankees.
This is another reason why Los Angeles seems like the place for him, because even in San Francisco, another relaxed media market, he would enter next year being looked at as the reason the Giants should win a fourth World Series in seven years. While the Dodgers seem to need him to win their first since 1988, Greinke is already comfortable with the expectations and media there.
He is also comfortable as the team's No. 2 starter. Kershaw is the all-world ace of the team, and much of the pressure of the team winning a title lands on his left arm. Despite Greinke's historic season, he was able to pitch in Kershaw's shadow most of the year even when he was the team's best pitcher for months at a time. For Greinke, that seems ideal.
According to Molly Knight, author of The Best Team Money Can Buy, via Yahoo Sports' Jeff Passan (h/t Fox Sports), there have been clubhouse issues involving Greinke and Yasiel Puig, but that is likely not enough to scare him into the arms of another organization. That is especially true if the Dodgers are indeed prioritizing Greinke, 32, as their top free agent and are willing to pay him as such.
The rub is the Dodgers might not be willing to overextend. Team president Stan Kasten does not like to extend pitchers with a certain number of innings on their arms, and the front office, led by president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman, has said in the past he does not want to be handcuffed in the future by huge contracts to a group of players in their mid- or late 30s.
"They'd certainly like to retain [him], but...the Dodgers know that he's going to command a lot of money on the open market," Los Angeles Times writer Bill Shaikin said on MLB Network on Monday. "They also know they don't want to get into six- and seven-year territory with a guy who is going to be pushing 40 years old at the end of the contract."
This comes down to how badly Greinke would like to remain with the Dodgers, who will pay him market value but maybe just not for six or seven years. It also might be decided by Greinke's comfort level with the organization and clubhouse, and if that is the case, he should realize he might not find a better situation for himself and his wants and needs than the Dodgers.
Greinke has already had lots success with the Dodgers as the No. 2 guy to Kershaw's ace, and he can continue to pitch as one of the best in the majors within that setup. It works for him, as does the cash the Dodgers are going to put on the table.
Now, it is up to Greinke to make the call.
Advanced statistics courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com.
All quotes, unless otherwise specified, have been acquired firsthand by Anthony Witrado. Follow Anthony on Twitter @awitrado and talk baseball here.
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