The trade that send Zack Greinke packing benefits both the Royals and Brewers
When the Milwaukee Brewers traded four prospects for CC Sabathia in 2008, they knew they were getting a player who could propel them into the playoffs but also one who may elect not to sign an extension.
At the press conference announcing the deal, Milwaukee Brewers General Manager Doug Melvin said he was “going for it.” He put all of his marbles in the big left-hander’s pot, hoping the move would pay short-term dividends—and it did. Sabathia, then 28, dazzled to a 11-2 record with a miniscule 1.65 ERA, seven complete games and three shutouts.
After propelling them into the postseason he left, signing a very lucrative deal with the New York Yankees during the free-agency period.
Two and a half years later, Melvin is going for it again. A blog post on the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel‘s website by Jim Breen citing unnamed sources had Milwaukee close to acquiring Kansas City Royals starting pitcher and 2009 American League Cy Young Award winner Zack Greinke. ESPN wasn’t reporting the deal, nor was any other major outlet.
But the deal, which had the Brewers parting with four prospects, came to fruition. Those sources knew what they were talking about, seemingly a rarity in this day and age, as the report was soon confirmed.
It was time for Greinke to move on: Kansas City wouldn’t have had enough money to keep him around after the expiration of his contract, and he deserved to be in a bigger market with a better chance to contend.
The 27-year-old was the Royals lone attraction, a member of a team locked in the American League Central’s basement. In 2009, he earned the Cy Young with extraordinary numbers: a record of 16-8, an ERA of 2.16, six complete games, three shutouts, 242 strikeouts, and only 11 home runs allowed.
He could not build upon this success in 2010, however, finishing 10-14 with a 4.17 ERA. To put the difference in perspective, he allowed 47 more runs, seven more homers, and struck out a startling 61 less hitters in only nine less innings.
Despite this decline, the Brewers acquired an ace who could change their fortunes in the NL Central and take them back to the playoffs for the first time since the short Sabathia Era.
In acquiring Greinke and shortstop Yuniesky Betancourt, the Brewers parted with center-fielder Lorenzo Cain, 24, shortstop Alcides Escobar and a pair of pitching prospects, Jeremy Jeffress, 23, and Jake Odorizzi, 20. This is a very solid return for the Royals and a farm-depleting loss for the Brewers.
Cain, their minor-league system’s eighth-ranked prospect entering the 2010 season, is the centerpiece. He hit very well in the minor leagues before getting the call to the big club. In 43 games with the Brewers he batted .306, fifteen points higher than his average on the farm. Speedy and disciplined, he figures to slot in as Kansas City’s everyday center-fielder.
Escobar, who hit .293 with 142 stolen bases throughout his minor league career, has struggled to adjust to major-league pitching. In his first full season with Milwaukee he hit only .235 with a measly .288 On Base Percentage and 10 stolen bases. Yet, though he committed 20 errors, he showed flashes of brilliance defensively. And despite his down year at the plate, there is little doubt Kansas City thinks he will not only hit but fill a hole as their present and future shortstop.
Jeffress has a live arm and plenty of promise, but enjoys smoking weed a bit too much, as two suspensions due to marijuana use suggest. If he can abide by Major League Baseball’s drug problem, he could easily turn out to be the package’s best player. Coming off a 100-game suspension, the six-feet right-hander started the 2010 season in low-A ball and moved all the way up the ladder to make 10 excellent appearances with the Brewers at season’s end.
His location, which was previously poor, improved greatly as he progressed through the system. He could slot into a rotation lacking much vigor, or given his ability to hit triple digits on the radar gun, Kansas City could elect to groom him as their next closer.
If they don’t have him start 2011 in Triple-A for more seasoning, I see them using him as a reliever–whether as a closer or middle-reliever–then gradually move him into the rotation.
To work out his off-the-field issues, he was taken under the wing of future Hall of Fame closer Trevor Hoffman, which improved his stock in Kansas City’s eyes. I’m sure Hoffman, the all-time saves leader, taught him a thing or two about being a closer too.
Jeffress may be major-league ready, but Odorizzi is a ways away from making an impact with the Royals, as he finished this past season in Single-A. But, as the Brewers ninth-ranked prospect, he could blossom into a middle-of-the-rotation starter and perhaps an ace.
“One scout who saw Odorizzi, the Brewers’ supplemental first-round pick (No. 32 overall) in the 2008 First-Year Player Draft, in the Midwest League this season, said he was the best pitching prospect he’d seen all summer,” as written by MLB.com’s Jonathan Mayo.
I may have jumped the gun: Since Jeffress moved swiftly to the big show, Odorizzi could do the same.
The Brewers chose to go for the win, but their loss is the Royals gain. Kansas City has amazing flexibility now, without a player locked up past 2012.
This, of course, excludes the control they have over minor league talent, which they have a lot of, they bring up to the big club. Helped by the acquisition of Cain and Escobar, they will field a offense built around prospects very soon.
Their infield, specifically, could feature three former first-round draft picks come opening day: Eric Hosmer, the third overall pick in the 2008 draft, at first base, Cristian Colon, the fourth overall pick in June’s draft, at second base and Mike Moustakas, the second overall pick in 2007, at third base.
The two teams are going in entirely different directions, but both are content: One looks to contend, while the other looks to rebuild around an immense crop of young talent.
Greinke for prospects is clearly a win-win.
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