I’ve seen lots of speculation about how effective Zack Greinke will be in the National League.
Many point to his only having one truly dominant season in the American League. Others bring up his bout with social anxiety disorder. If you sort through the different comments and the sources of those comments, you’ll see that none of them are coming from people inside of Major League Baseball. American League players, managers and front-office people know that Greinke is a special talent who could be as good as any pitcher in the game.
Greinke will be dominant this year for the Brewers, and he’ll be effective for three key reasons.
Run Support
Greinke made 33 starts in 2010. In 15 of Greinke’s decisions in 2010, the Royals scored three runs or less. In those decisions, Greinke was 3-12. In five of his no-decisions, the Royals scored three runs or less. In those games, the team was 1-4. Combined, the Royals were 4-16 in Greinke’s starts when the team scored three runs or less.
Out of 33 starts, he gave up more than four earned runs seven times. The Royals were 2-7 in his no-decisions.
What we can get from all of these numbers is that Greinke’s record of 10-14 is very deceiving. With only reasonable run support, he would easily have been a 15-game winner.
Electric Stuff
Greinke’s out pitch in 2009 was his devastating slider. Early in the 2010 season, American League hitters seemed to lay off the pitch, which may point to his reduced strikeout total. The ability to lay off the pitch, however, only came after seeing it the two years Greinke was a full-time starter after 2006. Hitters in the National League will be unfamiliar with the pitch and Greinke, which should be an advantage to the right-hander.
He’ll also be able to work up in the zone with his four-seam fastball, which he can run up to 98 mph. More importantly, he changes speeds effectively with the two- and four-seam sinking and running fastballs. While his command wasn’t as sharp in 2010 as it was in 2009, he’s always been known as a guy who can throw it where he wants to.
Early in his career, Greinke was known to throw his curveball at ridiculously slow speeds. He still changes speeds with it, but he uses it more to freeze hitters in fastball counts. When he needs to, he can make it bite.
After working on it for two years, his changeup has become a dangerous pitch, as well. It was better in 2010 than it has been his whole career.
There are probably pitchers in the major leagues with better individual pitches than Greinke, but it’s rare to find a young pitcher who can command four pitches, with such poise and mound command.
Competitiveness
Greinke was criticized last year for his comments that suggested he lacked motivation to pitch for the woeful Royals. This was another example of Greinke’s well-known honesty.
He thrives on competition. He wants to be the best at everything he does. Rather than being a character flaw, this is one of his greatest assets.
Anyone who has seen him dial it up when a runner reaches third base can attest to this. In Milwaukee, he won’t have to take the mound thinking that it’s going to take a shutout to win.
He’ll be able to make good pitches consistently, rather than having to make perfect ones.
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