Since they acquired the pitcher in a blockbuster trade in December 2010, there has been much speculation that the Brewers have a good shot at keeping Zack Greinke long term.
The reasoning is simple. Unlike CC Sabathia, fans and some media have said, Greinke is not a good fit for a big market club like the Yankees, Dodgers or Red Sox. In addition, some took his four year, $38 million extension with the Royals in 2009 as a sign that money is not his top priority in picking a team.
The reality is that when Greinke signed that contract, it was a very lucrative deal for a player of his service class. He remains one of the highest paid players in that class. Given that Greinke stands to make upwards of $15 million per year should he hit the open market, taking a "discount" would likely mean remaining at his current pay level, which just would not make any sense for a 28-year-old with a Cy Young to his name.
But a more important discussion than whether the Brewers can sign Zack Greinke is whether or not they should.
Though he will command top-starter money with a repeat performance in 2012, Zack Greinke has not pitched like one for nearly three years.
Coming off of that magical Cy Young season in 2009, Greinke posted thoroughly mediocre numbers (10-14, 4.17 ERA). In 2011, his first year with the Brewers, he struggled mightily coming off of a freak basketball injury before having an exceptional second half and ending up with significantly improved numbers (16-6, 3.83 ERA).
Still, those are not elite numbers. And as they learned from the Jeff Suppan catastrophe, the Brewers cannot afford to pay top money to an undeserving pitcher. That is not to say Greinke is anything like Suppan, but more that if the Brewers are going to spend ace money, it should be on an ace.
While Greinke was certainly not the only Brewers pitcher to struggle in the playoffs, his implosion against the St. Louis Cardinals in the National League Championship Series certainly should not make Mark Attanasio more willing to open his wallet for a major extension.
Complicating the situation is the status of prospects Taylor Jungmann and Jed Bradley. The Brewers front office believes the pair can move quickly through the system and be ready for big-league play as soon as 2013. Whether that happens remains to be seen, and it would be a risky proposition betting that even one of them can help fill out the rotation next year.
Additionally, Greinke is not the only Brewers pitcher up for free agency after 2012. Shaun Marcum, their other prize acquisition before 2011, and Randy Wolf are also in contract years. The Brewers need to decide which, if any, should be brought back.
Neither Marcum (age 30) nor Wolf (35) stand to make as much on the open market as Greinke, despite the fact that both had comparable performances in 2011. Bringing back the two of them on short-term deals is perhaps much less risky than trying to lock Greinke up for the five-plus seasons it would likely take to get a deal done.
With Prince Fielder now terrorizing American League central teams, the idea of letting another key piece of the best Brewers team in nearly 30 years walk is probably enough to make most fans cry into their beer. But in this case, as with Fielder, it might be the smartest move.
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