Fantasy

It seems like at this time for the past few years we’ve had the same discussion about the potential breakout candidacy of Justin Masterson. 

The underlying metrics scream that he could be a successful, under-the-radar option for fantasy owners, yet he has consistently failed miserably. 

The 2010 season was no different, having posted the following line:

I would be hard pressed to find anyone who doesn’t think Adrian Gonzalez landed in the perfect place for the 2011 season.  He moves out of spacious PETCO Park to the friendly confines of Fenway, a ballpark perfectly suited to his inside-out swing.

You would think that a player with over 7,500 plate appearances would be fairly easy to evaluate, but Adrian Beltre may be one of the more difficult players to project going into 2011.  This is a guy who has hit as high as .334 and as low .240, has hit as many as 48 home runs and as few as 19 and has driven in everywhere from 60 runs to double that number.  To say he has been inconsistent would be an understatement. 

Over the past year, Ian Kinsler has been steadily falling down people's wish lists and deservedly so. He has never been able to shake the injury bug as he has only played in more than 130 games once in his five-year career. Most recently, Kinsler is coming off an injury-riddled campaign where he only amassed nine home runs and 15 steals. Those number are not really meeting the expectations of the top 20 player that we all envisioned him to be.

Obviously, when you are drafting for a keeper league, things are a little bit different than if you are drafting simply for one year.  You need to think not just for 2011, but potentially 2012 and beyond (depending on your format).  Let’s take a look at how that changes things for our rankings:

Jose Bautista hit 54 home runs in just over 550 at-bats in 2010. The Seattle Mariners couldn’t even double that total in over 5,400 at-bats last season. The Mariners offense was historically bad, so bad that four teams had more home runs at the All-Star break than the Mariners had by the time they’d earned their AL-leading 101st loss.

Really? Kelly Johnson hit 26 home runs?

Chris Johnson burst onto the fantasy baseball scene in 2010 for the Houston Astros.  Playing 3B, among the shallowest positions, he caught fire in the second half helping to carry many to fantasy glory.  Overall, he had the following line:

362 At Bats
.308 Batting Average (105 Hits)
11 Home Runs
52 RBI
40 Runs
3 Stolen Bases
.337 On Base Percentage
.481 Slugging Percentage
.387 Batting Average on Balls in Play