Stats

Southpaw Jon Lester has evolved into the ace of the Boston Red Sox pitching staff. 

Two winters ago, there were many fans who urged the Sox to trade a package of players including Lester and Jacoby Ellsbury to Minnesota in exchange for then-Twins lefty Johan Santana. Potential, they argued, was not as valuable as production. Many of us pleaded with Red Sox GM Theo Epstein from afar to hold onto Lester in the belief he would develop into an ace. 

Ths is one of the happiest days of the year, as Spring Training opens. It makes all of us kids again, remembering the snap of ball into mitt and the unique sound of a well struck ball off a wooden bat.

As has been so often said, "Hope Springs Eternal."  Even the fans of perennial cellar dwellers can find some invigoration in Spring Training as we look to the future.

When the New York Yankees won their 27th World Series crown in November, they did so with a 35-year-old designated hitter, a 36-year-old left fielder, a 37-year-old catcher, and a closer who would turn 40 just a few days after the Series ended.

Two of those guys are gone now and two return a little older.

For any Red Sox fans out there, you'll love to take a look at the PECOTA predictions for the 2010 season. 

According to the Player Empirical Comparison and Optimization Test Algorithm, the Boston Red Sox are projected to go 94-68 next year, the best record in MLB. They are favored to win the AL East by two games over the New York Yankees. 

The month was January 2009. It was a simpler time, when unemployment was only in the single digits, Michael Jackson was still alive, and baseball awards were still predicated on RBI totals and Wins.

We can thank the latter of all that for the mistake that occurred: Jim Rice, in his last Hall of Fame ballot, was elected into the Hall of Fame.

He of magical, feared 128 OPS+ glory, like other feared players Ryan Klesko and Jimmy Wynn.

(Originally posted on 4SportBoston.com )

Just how obvious is it, Terry Francona?

Anytime the Oakland A's deficiencies are brought up, the first thing that tends to come up is "They need a shortstop."

Why?

Cliff Pennington hit .279/.342/.418 last year. Shortstops as a whole hit .271/.328/.393.

He ranked 12th among shortstops in OBP and OPS. That places him in average to above-average starter territory, and Pennington is only 25.

His UZR last season wasn't incredible (-7.3 UZR/150), but that knocks him only from a bit above average to average.

Twins left-handed relief pitcher Jose Mijares has long been a highly-rated prospect, with a low-90s fastball and an excellent slider. He appeared to live up to the hype as a rookie in 2009, posting a 2.34 ERA.

Ah, but wait.

Mijares' FIP was 4.01 last year. His xFIP was even worse at 4.43.

Those numbers suggest that Mijares was one of the luckier pitchers in baseball last year.

So, is Mijares a very good pitcher, or is he just an average pitcher who benefited from good fortune in 2009?

Are you an owner in a two-catcher format who likes to wait until the last few rounds to fill out one or two of your catching spots?  While it’s not a strategy that I’m in favor of (which we’ll discuss soon), here are two players that are worth eyeing who are going in Round 18 or later of 12-team formats:

Jesus Flores - Washington Nationals

So the Bay era is over in Boston. Probably a lot sooner than many Red Sox fans, myself included, had hoped.

Jason Bay, while no Manny Ramirez with the bat, provided the Red Sox with a very solid power stroke in a very walk-happy lineup (second in the AL with 659), hitting 36 home runs, and providing a very nice line of .267/.384/.537.

It will be interesting to see how Bay's style plays at Citi Field, as it is a very young ballpark, and while Fenway Park is noted as a hitter's park, it also can depress HR totals. Particularly for a right handed hitter.