The other day, we wrote a post looking at the “10 Breakout Candidates for 2011.” Today, we are going to look at five players who potentially could bounce back from relatively poor seasons in 2010.
These are guys who looked like they were headed for fantasy stardom after the 2009 season, but for some reason or another, had a down 2010. These are also guys that you might be able to get later in the draft because some of the other owners in your league are down on them. But you shouldn’t be.
Here are five bounce back candidates for the 2011 season.
1. Justin Upton, Arizona Diamondbacks
2009: .300/26/86/.366 with 20 SBs and an .899 OPS
2010: .273/17/69/.356 with 18 SBs, and a .799 OPS
2011: Well, there is good news and bad news concerning Upton. The good news is that all signs point to Upton being healthy heading into spring training. A lot of Upton’s down season could be attributed to a shoulder injury that nagged him all season.
The other good news is that the Diamondbacks will not use a humidor in 2011. That means the balls should continue to fly out of Chase Field. I fully expect Upton to get back to the 25-30 HR mark in 2011 and have an OPS nearing the .900 mark.
Now the bad news.
The Diamondbacks’ offense will take a step back in 2011. Gone are Mark Reynolds and Adam LaRoche and in are Melvin Mora and Xavier Nady. I could see Upton having another down year in the runs scored and RBI department.
Look for Upton’s average, HR, SBs, OBP, and OPS to increase in 2011.
2. Pablo Sandoval, San Francisco Giants
2009: .330/25/90/.387 with a .943 OPS
2010: .268/13/63/.323 with .732 OPS
2011: 2010 was a complete disaster for the “Kung-Fu Panda.” He came into the season out of shape and by the end of the season he was a complete non-factor in the Giants’ World Series run.
According to reports, Sandoval has done a complete 180 this offseason, has been working out with Barry Bonds and is supposedly in the best shape of his career. He will get every chance in the world to prove himself in spring training and I think Sandoval delivers.
Do I think Sandoval will hit .330 again? No I don’t. He won’t have a .350 BABIP again.
I would predict a .305/20/88 season for Sandoval, which would make him a top-10 fantasy third baseman in 2011.
3. Ben Zobrist, Tampa Bay Rays
2009: .297/27/91/.405 with 17 SBs, and seven triples
2010: .238/10/75/.346 with 24 SBs and two triples
2011: Zobrist went from fantasy darling in 2009 to a second-rate player in 2010. He saw a massive drop in average, HRs, RBI and OBP. The only thing keeping Zobrist from being a complete disaster was that he qualified at three different positions, which is always a plus in any fantasy format.
Zobrist will still qualify at three different positions in 2011, but if he wants to improve in 2011, he is going to need to make some adjustments. Pitchers figured out the easiest way to get Zobrist out in 2010 was to throw him offspeed stuff. He was below replacement level on curves, sliders and changeups last season.
We’ll see if Zobrist makes the necessary adjustments in spring training. He will be the “key” to the Rays’ offense in 2011 and I think he makes the adjustments and enjoys a bounceback season.
4. Gordon Beckham, Chicago White Sox:
2009: .270/14/63/.347 with an .808 OPS in 103 games
2010: .252/9/49/.317 with a .695 OPS in 131 games
2011: After impressing in just 103 games in 2009, everyone thought Beckham was going to break out in 2010. As a matter of fact, he was a candidate for “Fantasy mancrush” along with Carlos Gonzalez of the Colorado Rockies. Unfortunately for Beckham, he went in the complete opposite direction as Gonzalez.
Gonzalez was an MVP candidate and Beckham really stunk it up in the first half. Beckham hit just .216 with three HRs in the first half. He also had a pathetic .277 OBP.
But Beckham really turned it on in the second half, hitting .310/.380/.497 with six HRs. I like the odds of Beckham taking that second half over to this season and I also like the odds that he won’t hit .224 again against left-handed pitching like he did in 2010.
5. Aaron Hill, Toronto Blue Jays
2009: .286/36/108/.330 with 37 doubles and 103 runs scored
2010: .205/26/68/.271 with 22 doubles and 70 runs scored
2011: Hill had one of the all-time great seasons for a second baseman in 2009 to having one of the unluckiest seasons of any player in 2010. Hill’s .196 BABIP was the lowest of the past decade and it beat Tony Batista‘s .225 by almost 30 points.
That won’t happen again in 2011.
But I also don’t think he will hit 36 HRs again either. I would expect a .271 average with 31 HRs, and with a solid offense surrounding him, Hill should drive in between 90-100 runs in 2011.
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