A late round first base option? Is that really necessary?
Well, for those in deeper leagues, or for those who want to wait and take advantage of the depth of the position, it certainly is.
Let’s take a look at a few of the options that should be available after Round 18.
Ike Davis, New York Mets
Davis opened 2010 at Triple-A, but when an injury to Daniel Murphy opened the door, he never relinquished the opportunity. He finished the year hitting .264 with 18 HR, 71 RBI and 73 R in 523 AB.
While he spent significant time hitting fourth (.262, 11 HR, 40 RBI in 229 AB) and fifth (.256, 3 HR, 15 RBI in 156 AB), that isn’t likely going to be the case in 2011. The return to health of Carlos Beltran and Jason Bay will ticket Davis for the sixth spot in the lineup, but that should still offer significant RBI opportunities.
While Citi Field scares many people off, Davis showed that he has the power to hit the ball out of any ballpark. Of his 19 HR, eight of them came at home. He also posted a modest 12.0 percent HR/FB rate, meaning that, at just 24 years old, the potential is there for him to continue to develop his power stroke. While it shouldn’t be expected to see him jump into the 30 HR range, approaching 25 over a full season is likely.
He also has the potential to improve on his average. While the BABIP (.321) is realistic, seeing him improve on his 26.4 percent strikeout rate would not be surprising. A decrease there should mean an improved average.
Davis should be viewed as a hitter that easily could hit .275 with 20-24 HR and 80-plus RBI. While that may not be an ideal first baseman, would anyone shy away from those numbers from a corner infielder? Not to mention he has the potential to significantly outproduce them.
Davis’ current ADP is around 260 according to Mock Draft Central.
Gaby Sanchez, Florida Marlins
He took over as the Marlins' regular first baseman in 2010 and responded by hitting .273 with 19 HR, 85 RBI and 72 R over 572 AB. He showed an impressive contact rate (17.7 percent) and easily brings the potential for a significantly better average (.299 BABIP).
The problem with Sanchez is that, at 27 years old, can we really anticipate a significant boost in the power production? Over 1,753 minor league at-bats he hit just 62 HR. In the Pacific Coast League in 2009 he hit just 16 HR over 318 AB. Unfortunately, that is one major knock against his potential.
Still, with the average upside and a spot in the middle of the Marlins lineup, he should have plenty of opportunities to produce. Think .280-plus average with low-20s home run potential. Those are fine numbers when you will be able to draft him.
Sanchez’ current ADP is about 232 according to Mock Draft Central.
Matt LaPorta, Cleveland Indians
I discussed him recently as part of a Wild Prediction, saying that he would hit at least 30 HR in 2011 (click here to view). While that type of number may be a bit of a stretch, we should be in store for improved production from LaPorta.
The 2007 first-round draft pick has shown power in the past, hitting 20 HR in 302 AB at Double-A in 2008, though injuries and adjustment appear to have slowed his progress. In 376 AB for the Indians in 2010 he hit .221 with 12 HR and 41 RBI.
Of course, we cannot overlook his .250 BABIP. Yes, he may have been trying a little too hard to hit home runs (45.3 percent fly-ball rate), but with a full-time job his entering 2011, one has to think that he might not press quite as hard. He has experience, and this easily could be the year that he puts it all together.
Is he worth a high round draft choice? Absolutely not, but in the later rounds he certainly is worth the flier given his tremendous upside.
LaPorta’s ADP is currently around 396 according to Mock Draft Central.
What are your thoughts on these three players? Which would you target at the tail end of your draft? Is there another option that you are eyeing?
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Make sure to check out our previous late round articles:
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