In 2010, it was definitely the year of the pitcher. But early injuries so far have it looking as if the 2011 season may be the year of the injured pitcher.
During a normal spring training, I would be sitting here telling readers to go ahead and take a chance on someone like a Dontrelle Willis because, worst case scenario, you drop him two weeks in and you’re still fine.
But this season hasn’t been a normal year. In the first couple weeks of spring training, three quality No. 1 starters—Adam Wainwright, Zach Greinke and Chris Carpenter—have already found their way to the DL, and I am expecting more to follow in the first couple months.
When drafting your team, it is more important than ever to make sure and grab quality pitchers early on. Even if it means having to overpay or take them earlier than you would like, all indications are that this year will not be a good year to cycle your pitchers.
Pitching is possibly the single most important aspect in fantasy baseball, because of how few starts each week you are going to get from your starters. If you look back at past years' results, the teams who tend to do well and win the league, normally have pretty deep pitching staffs.
For those of you who already drafted your leagues and had these injured players, like myself, you’ll just have to wait it out. For those of you who haven’t drafted yet, look to try and take three or four potential No. 1 starters instead of one or two. Your offense may struggle, but it will be easier to find a quality outfielder midseason than a quality starter.
Below are some players that I expect to find their way to the DL at some point during the season and are probably worth avoiding this year:
San Francisco Giants Starters
Normally I don’t lump staffs together, but in this case I would avoid them all. In 2010, Tim Lincecum, Jonathan Sanchez and Madison Bumgarner all threw career-high innings. With them still being young pitchers, their arms can’t recover as quickly.
Factor that with the fact that the Giants' offense normally has problems giving them run support, and I expect their numbers to drop this season—even if they can stay healthy.
John Lackey
Lackey has an injury history and, while there is a lot of hype this year around him, I’m not sold. The Red Sox have problems keeping their entire starting staff healthy at the same time, so I expect at least one DL stint from Lackey.
Also, while the improved Red Sox offense could increase his numbers, he has always had problems pitching against the AL East—especially at Fenway Park. His numbers are not going to be as good as people hope.
Chad Billingsley
Billingsley has had some past injury problems, but showed signs of returning to his old form toward the end of last season. However, the Dodgers' bullpen has a lot of issues this season, which I think will lead Mattingly to try and get extra innings out of his starters. This could lead to injury problems for Billingsley, and I expect him to land on the DL probably around mid-June to early July.
A.J. Burnett
Burnett is one everyone should avoid this season. Burnett always has problems staying healthy and, even when he does, his ERA is sky high. Also, in a shaky Yankees rotation, he will be the first one to lose his spot if he struggles out of the gate. Overall, the upside is just too small to justify the risk of using a roster spot on him.
By Trey Nelson
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