Third base hasn’t been one of the deeper positions in a while, and 2011 is no different. There are a number of questions coming into the position including what David Wright will show up? The power hitter who was back last year, or the guy who hit ten homers in 2009?
Will Jose Bautista get anywhere near 50 home runs again? Can Adrian Beltre produce at all if he isn’t playing for a contract? Will the Kung Fu Panda hit for any power? Can Mark Reynolds hit over .200?
There are a few young options this year that could become reliable fantasy starters to make your choices at third base even more interesting. You can email me with questions or comments at ryan@fantasyalarm.com and I guarantee an answer in 18 hours.
(2010 Final Statistics in Italics)
1. Evan Longoria, Tampa Bay Rays
.294 average, 22 homers, 104 RBI, 15 SBs, 96 runs
My heartthrob at the position, Longoria caught my attention from the day he stepped foot on the baseball field. There just isn’t anything this kid can’t do. His batting average has gone up each year in the league, he hits for more than enough power and his stolen bases have also increased every season he has played.
Sure his power numbers declined last season and he lost Carl Crawford and Carlos Pena, but it doesn’t matter. Longoria is just a guy who can get it done regardless. Look for him to hit around .300 with 28-30 homers and another 105 RBI. His stolen bases might fall back, but he still should stay around ten.
2. Alex Rodriguez, New York Yankees
.270 average, 30 homers, 125 RBI, 4 SBs, 74 runs (135 games)
A-Rod has missed 25 or more games in three straight seasons, but there is another interesting stat linked to him. He has also had at least 30 home runs and over 100 RBI for 13 straight seasons.
I know he is 35 years old and no longer on any performance enhancing drugs (probably), but A-Rod is still a masher. 125 RBI in 135 games? That is nasty! And I hate the Yankees.
You might have to deal with some time without him in your lineup, but overall he is still one of the best fantasy players in all of baseball. I have witnessed him being drafted in the second round, and that would be an absolute steal for a guy capable of his production and at a position that is pretty shallow. It might not be a popular pick, but A-Rod still gets it done.
3. David Wright, New York Mets
.283 average, 29 homers, 103 RBI, 19 SBs, 87 runs
Wright was an amazing all around fantasy player until 2009 when his power seemed to disappear and he started striking out more than the dorky kid in high school. Well, those who kept the faith in 2010 were rewarded, as even though his batting average dropped, Wright’s power stroke returned in a big way and he nearly stole 20 bases.
Even with the cavernous dimensions of Citi Field, expect Wright to continue to top 25 home runs a season and run enough to keep you happy. I believe his batting average will get even closer to .300 and Wright will have another big year for the Mets. He should be drafted in the first two rounds and should pay big dividends for his fantasy owners.
4. Ryan Zimmerman, Washington Nationals
.307 average, 25 homers, 85 RBI, 4 SBs, 85 runs
Zimmerman has somehow been in the majors for six seasons now and has been a pretty solid contributor throughout, but somehow seemed to get more fantasy respect in 2010. His batting average is great, and he hits for a solid amount of power. The Nationals lineup continues to improve a little bit at a time and he is the heart and soul of the team.
I would like to see him steal a few more bases in order to be a top flight fantasy player, but he is still one of the best at his position and you can feel comfortable drafting him in the first four rounds. At age 26, there is still room for him to improve.
5. Kevin Youkilis, Boston Red Sox
.307 average, 19 homers, 62 RBI, 4 SBs, 77 runs (102 games)
Youk is a nice fantasy option even though he seems to miss 15-20 games a year due to injury. He missed 60 games in 2010 due to injury, but in 2008-2009 Youk averaged 28 homers and 105 RBI.
He will go back to third base with the addition of Adrian Gonzalez, and considering the current state of the position he is a great option for fantasy at the hot corner. He should be healthy in 2011, and given the way he has been performing the past three seasons there is no reason you can’t expect a .300 average with 25 homers and 95 RBI.
6. Adrian Beltre, Texas Rangers
.321 average, 28 homers, 102 RBI, 2 SBs, 84 runs
Beltre had an MVP caliber season for the Red Sox, and kept them in contention even with all of the key injuries they had in 2010. He hit for the highest average, the most homers and RBI since his (likely steroid induced) career season of 2004.
I have a hard time believing that he will match his .321 average from last year, considering most of the rest of his career he has consistently been in the .260s and .270s. But he has always been around the 25-28 home run range and there is no reason to think that he won’t be back there again.
He now goes to Texas so he will be in the middle of a very impressive offensive lineup and his home ballpark is a hitter’s dream if you want to hit home runs. I think he will hit around .290 and be between 27-30 home runs on the season and is a fine option as your starting third baseman.
7. Jose Bautista, Toronto Blue Jays
.260 average, 54 homers, 125 RBI, 9 SBs, 109 runs
From 2004-2009, Bautista hit 59 home runs in his career. Somehow, and I won’t speculate how, he managed to hit 54 in a single season. Based on that, and his career .244 average, I have to say that I don’t expect him to get anywhere near the numbers he had last season.
In fact, I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised if the home runs and RBI numbers were slashed by half. Guys just don’t usually break out when they are 30 years old, and while he might be better than what he was previously in his career, I can’t see Bautista being a monster masher again.
Based on the position he plays he still should be a viable fantasy option, but if you pick him in the first three rounds you will be very disappointed by the value you get out of him by the time the season is over.
8. Pedro Alvarez, Pittsburgh Pirates
.256 average, 16 homers, 64 RBI, 42 runs (95 games)
This is the guy that I expect to take the biggest jump this year. Alvarez was one of the top rated prospects for the past couple of years, and outside of his batting average, he delivered big time when he came to the pros. He showed all the tools we have heard rumors of all this time, and outside of the strikeouts he went through early, there was nothing to complain about with this kid.
He isn’t going to run, but other than that he should help you out across the board and be a great fantasy contributor in 2011. I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised if he hit 30 homers and drove in 100 runs.
9. Casey McGehee, Milwaukee Brewers
.285 average, 23 homers, 104 RBI, 1 SB, 70 runs
McGehee had a respectable minor league career, but he didn’t put up numbers that suggested that he would be this good in the major leagues. After a more than solid rookie season, McGehee took the next step towards fantasy stardom with a breakout year in 2010.
Not only does he play a fairly shallow position, but he put up numbers that would get him drafted no matter where he played. I am not sure that I expect him to do quite this well again, but I would be surprised if his numbers dropped by more than say ten percent. He still should be a solid contributor and a guy that you can feel comfortable with as your starting third sacker.
10. Pablo Sandoval, San Francisco Giants
.268 average, 13 homers, 63 RBI, 3 SBs, 61 runs
The Kung Fu Panda waddled his fat ass to a horrible season where his stats dropped across the board and frustrated fantasy owners like few others have in quite a while.
His average dropped over 60 points and his home run numbers were nearly cut in half. Sandoval was always a very good hitter in the minors, but I don’t think he is quite as good as his 2009 suggests. However, I do see a nice bounce back from Sandoval this year as he should be near a .300 average and 20 home runs.
Unless catchers in the National League go blind or lose their throwing arms, I don’t see him stealing bases even though he reportedly lost 20 pounds in the offseason.
11. Mark Reynolds, Baltimore Orioles
.198 average, 32 homers, 85 RBI, 7 SBs, 79 runs
You have to love Reynolds for his power numbers, but the batting average and strikeouts are just downright embarrassing. In points leagues where you lose points for strikeouts his value falls even farther. However, you can’t argue with the number of baseballs he parked in the seats in the past two years.
You have to figure that he will hit for a better batting average this season, but .240 is a reasonable expectation. I think that there are better options than Reynolds, but he still at least is a guarantee to help you in home runs and RBI.
12. Ian Stewart, Colorado Rockies
.256 average, 18 homers, 61 RBI, 5 SBs, 54 runs (121 games)
Stewart was a dynamic hitter in the minor leagues, and in short spurts in the majors he has shown some brilliance with the bat. He is a little fragile and has dealt with nagging injuries throughout his career, but if Stewart ever puts together a full season and stays healthy he could be a lethal hitter.
I really like Stewart and think that he is a guy that I am definitely targeting if I fail to get a top third baseman early in drafts. His batting average will likely never be in the .300s but he has a real shot at 25 homers and 90 RBI which would be an incredible value coming from the hot corner in the middle rounds of drafts.
13. Chone Figgins, Seattle Mariners
.259 average, one homer, 35 RBI, 42 SBs, 62 runs
Figgins’ average has been all over the map in his career, from a high of .330 all the way down to his career low of .259 last season. His value really depends on that batting average.
Figgins is always going to steal about 40 bases, and he is always going to hit about three home runs and drive in 40 runs, so that you can write in the books. But how many runs he will score and his batting average could be a huge spectrum.
If you have no other speed on your team you can live with Figgins as your starting third baseman, but I would much rather have him as a corner infielder or utility player on my team.
14. Chris Johnson, Houston Astros
.308 average, 11 homers, 52 RBI, 3 SBs, 40 runs (94 games)
Johnson came to the majors just before the All-Star Break and gave Astros fans something to cheer about. He hit for a great average, which could have been even higher if not for a three week rough stretch. And while he wasn’t Babe Ruth, he hit with enough power to keep you happy.
Based on what he did in the minor leagues there is no reason to think that Johnson’s success was a fluke and he should be a good fantasy player again in 2011. There is a chance that he will be very good and worthy of being a starting fantasy third baseman, but I would feel better about him being on the corner or the bench.
15. David Freese, St. Louis Cardinals
.296 average, 4 homers, 36 RBI, 1 SB, 28 runs (70 games)
Freese was having a pretty decent rookie season before an ankle injury cut it short. He wasn’t hitting for the power that the Cardinals were expecting, but as usual his batting average was pretty good. Freese did have a season of 26 home runs in AAA so there is a chance that his power numbers will improve.
He was a .308 career hitter in the minors, so the average he was hitting last season was no fluke. He will likely still be more of a doubles hitter than a home run hitter in 2010, but he should have an opportunity to drive in more runs with the caliber of hitters in front of him in the lineup.
He should hit .300 this season with about 15 home runs and 85 RBI. He is supposed to be ready for Spring Training, but keep your eye on his work as he did come off multiple offseason surgeries.
16. Scott Rolen, Cincinnati Reds
.285 average, 20 homers, 83 RBI, 1 SB, 66 runs
If you look at Rolen’s numbers for the year you would say that it looks like he had a pretty good year for a guy at this stage of his career. However, if you note that 17 of his 20 homers came before the All-Star Break, as well as two-thirds of his RBI, suddenly it doesn’t look so hot.
He is 35 years old and has an injury history a mile long. Rolen has been a great player in his career, but he is certainly coming to the end. He is still a very good defensive player, but for our purposes that doesn’t matter much. He is another guy that it is when he gets injured, not if so if you draft him be sure you have a competent backup.
And if he gets off to another good start, trade him like there is no tomorrow, because it is guaranteed that it won’t last.
17. Dayan Viciedo, Chicago White Sox
.308 average, 5 homers, 18 RBI, 1 SB, 17 runs (38 games)
Viciedo defected from Cuba at age 19, and now looks like his best shot to grab a starting job with the Pale Hose. He got his first audition late last season and did pretty well with the at-bats he was given.
He isn’t a big speed guy, and while he isn’t a power monster, he does hit enough long balls to keep you pretty happy, as he could be in the 20-22 range with a full season in the majors. He is going to have to battle Brent Morel for the job at third or find a home in the outfield or DH (although they all seem filled), but if Viciedo gets regular playing time he will earn this ranking.
Keep a close eye on him in Spring Training to see where his fantasy fortunes lie at the beginning of the year. My guess is he will play well enough to force himself into the lineup somewhere.
18. Chase Headley, San Diego Padres
.264 average, 11 homers, 58 RBI, 17 SBs, 77 runs
Headley actually put together a pretty decent season last year for those of you in roto leagues with the modest power and decent speed. He could possibly improve in the power department as he continues to mature and get more experience in the league, but there is absolutely no way I see his base stealing improving for the third straight year.
His 17 swipes from last year NEARLY equaled his total from the rest of his major league career and ALL of his minor league career combined. I have always expected him to hit for a higher batting average in the majors, but it appears he has forgotten all of his plate discipline.
If you are drafting him expecting a repeat of 2010 with hopes for a little bit more power you could be OK, but if you are expecting a larger increase in home runs and counting on him for speed, I think you need to look in another direction. Headley is a decent guy to put at your corner infield spot, but he is not someone that should be starting in standard sized leagues.
19. Matt Dominguez, Florida Marlins
.252 average, 14 homers, 81 RBI, 61 runs (in minors)
The 12th overall pick in the 2007 draft appears to be poised to be the starting third baseman for the Marlins this season and could make an early fantasy splash. He likely won’t hit for too much power at age 21, but the tools are there for him to grow into being a decent power hitter.
He has awesome gap power right now, and over time those balls could easily clear the fences. He didn’t have a ridiculous strikeout rate in the minors, but many players struggle in the jump from AA right to the majors. Dominguez is a guy that I could see you taking later in the draft for a guy with a high upside.
20. Danny Valencia, Minnesota Twins
.311 average, 7 homers, 40 RBI, 2 SBs, 30 runs (85 games)
Valencia wasn’t a highly touted draft pick back in 2006, but he has been pretty successful every step that he has made. He isn’t a huge power hitter, but Valencia has always hit for a pretty good average, and his gap power is very impressive.
He finished last season very strong as he hit .310 with five taters and 17 RBI after September 1, and goes into the year all but a lock to be the starter at the hot corner for the Twinkies.
He is a very intriguing player this season and could be a good sleeper for those of you looking for value late in drafts. He’s never really going to run enough to help you in the stolen base categories, but the batting average should stay strong and the power numbers should improve as he gets more experience.
21. Aramis Ramirez, Chicago Cubs
.241 average, 25 homers, 83 RBI, 61 runs
This guy has had an amazing career and could have been so much better if it wasn’t littered with injuries in what seems like every season. His .241 batting average was the worst since he left the prison known as Pittsburgh, but he still was able to mash 25 homers even though he played just 124 games.
I have lost faith in Aramis a few years ago, and I think at this point of his career I would just avoid him. He does bring some value in the power department, but it isn’t worth the risk of him going down for an extended period of time.
Having Ramirez as a corner infielder or injury insurance (ironic, don’t ya think?) is a much better plan.
22. Alberto Callaspo, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
.265 average, 10 homers, 56 RBI, 5 SBs, 61 runs
He has shown the ability to drive in some runs over the past couple of seasons in Kansas City, and now he goes to a much better situation in Anaheim, but don’t expect him to all of a sudden be a solid fantasy contributor.
He has more doubles power than actually being a home run hitter, but if he can get his average up another ten to fifteen points he could put up decent fantasy numbers. Callaspo will turn 28 right when the season starts, so he is just entering the prime of his career, but if you expect his stats to improve greatly with the move to Anaheim I think you are setting yourself up to be disappointed.
23. Casey Blake, Los Angeles Dodgers
.248 average, 17 homers, 64 RBI, 56 runs
Blake has been pretty consistent throughout his career…..consistently average. He has generally hit between .270 and .280 with 17-23 home runs just about every season.
However, last season his batting average dropped to an alarmingly low .248 and his RBI total was his lowest since 2005. He still should be the started in Los Angeles, but he is now 37 years old and definitely in the twilight of his career.
At this point Blake is not someone that you want in any prominent role in your lineups, but could get you through if you have an injury hole that you need filled.
24. Kevin Kouzmanoff, Oakland Athletics
.247 average, 16 homers, 71 RBI, 2 SBs, 59 runs
I have always loved Kouzmanoff’s potential, but he has played in the two worst hitter’s ballparks in the major leagues in San Diego and Oakland. Even more alarming, his batting average has dropped every season that he has been in the major leagues and his homers have dropped the past two seasons.
He had some great numbers in the minors, so the potential is there, but until he learns to take a walk and stop swinging at every pitch that comes his way he will never be a viable fantasy player. He could improve on his 2010 numbers, but at this point I have given up on him being a big time talent.
25. Brandon Inge, Detroit Tigers
.247 average, 13 homers, 70 RBI, 4 SBs, 47 runs
Inge has had a couple of big seasons in his career, however 2010 was not one of them. People will look at his 2009 season when he hit 27 home runs, but 21 of them were in the first half of the season and he hit .230 that year.
Inge is capable of having great spurts of production in small doses, but over a full season he is never going to carry your team. He will turn 34 years old in May and has had a good deal of injuries throughout his career. Unless it is way at the end of the draft and you aren’t counting on him for much, I would just stay away from Inge.
26. Chipper Jones, Atlanta Braves
.265 average, 10 homers, 46 RBI, 5 SBs, 47 runs (95 games)
Oh Chipper, Chipper, Chipper. Let me count the ways that I loathe you. Always disappointing us when we need you most. Jones missed 67 games last year after suffering a knee injury that required surgery, and the worst part is that he will turn 38 shortly after the season starts.
He has missed a good chunk of nearly every season of his career, and his once proud batting average (he won the 2008 batting title), has shrunk to a mediocre level by his standards. His power has been declining over the past few seasons as well and his fantasy value is as low as it has ever been.
Someone will draft him based on his name and the news that he should be ready for Spring Training, but he should also be ready for his first trip to the DL by the middle of May. Steer clear of Jones and I guarantee you that you will be happy you did.
27. Jayson Nix, Cleveland Indians
.224 average, 14 homers, 34 RBI, 1 SB, 32 runs
For the first time in his entire career, Nix looks like he is in line for regular at bats in the major leagues.
His batting average has always been a huge concern, but Nix has put up decent power numbers in the majors and minor leagues. He should see a good number of pitches to hit since most games that the Indians will be in will be over by the third inning.
Nix isn’t someone I would even consider drafting, but keep him on your radar in case he gets off to a fast start.
28. Melvin Mora, Arizona Diamondbacks
.285 average, 7 homers, 45 RBI, 2 SBs, 39 runs
Since a career resurgence in 2008 when he hit 23 homers and drove in 104 runs, Mora has absolutely fallen off a cliff. Of course, he is 38 years old so this should be no surprise, but the severity of the fall is still a bit unnerving.
He now goes to Arizona which isn’t the best lineup in the majors by a LONG shot, so the chances of Mora being successful are even more strained. And I still haven’t even taken into account that he has played more than 125 games just once in the last four years.
You are grasping for straws if you expect too much from Mora, and he is no better than a guy to fill a hole for a week or two if you are desperate.
29. Placido Polanco, Philadelphia Phillies
.298 average, 6 homers, 52 RBI, 5 SBs, 76 runs
Polanco has never really hit for power except for a couple of seasons where he got near the 15 homer mark, but he has generally hit for a pretty decent average and driven in his fair share of runs.
I have never been a Polanco fan as I have never really been big on guys who just hit for average and never really help you in either power or speed categories. There is something to be said for a player like him in roto leagues, but I still feel you need to hit about .325 for it to be really worth it if you aren’t driving in at least 80 runs.
Polanco will likely be drafted because of the team he plays for and the ball park he plays in, but I suggest unless you are looking for some depth at third base, I would look in other directions.
30. Wilson Betemit, Kansas City Royals
.297 average, 13 homers, 43 RBI, 36 runs (84 games)
I really can’t believe a major league team is going into the season planning on starting Wilson Betemit in their infield. I mean the guy is ok and isn’t a total drain on your lineup, but he is not someone that should be starting on a daily basis. Hell, he spent over 70 games in the minors just last year, and he turned 29 in the fall.
The good news for Royals fans is that Betemit is likely only keeping the seat warm for a mid-season call up for Mike Moustakas, so you shouldn’t have to put up with him for long. Oh, and fantasy players you can avoid him.
31. Brent Morel, Chicago White Sox
.231 average, 3 homers, 7 RBI, 2 SBs, 9 runs (21 games)
Morel is more of a defensive player than he ever will be swinging the bat, but he could be starting at third base for the White Sox this season. He did have an impressive year in 2009 in the Arizona Fall League with 16 home runs, but that is by far the best pace he had ever been on.
His batting average in the minors was always fairly impressive, but I wonder how his bat will carry over to the majors. There is no reason to consider Morel unless you are in a deep AL-only league to start the season.
32. Brooks Conrad, Atlanta Braves
.250 average, 8 homers, 33 RBI, 5 SBs, 31 runs
You might not have ever heard of Conrad, but that doesn’t mean he is a young man. He just turned 31 and might be getting his first real chance to get regular playing time in the major leagues.
He has been a pretty good player in the minor leagues throughout his career, but three different organizations have decided that he hasn’t been worthy of a regular position. He is behind Chipper Jones on the depth chart, which means he could be starting soon. He could be someone that could gain value as the season moves along.
33. Jeff Baker, Chicago Cubs
.272 average, 4 homers, 21 RBI, 1 SB, 29 runs
Baker had a .300/20/100 season in 2006 at AAA and that made people slightly excited about his prospects as a major league hitter, but he has never been given a full time chance or really performed at a level that suggested he deserved a full-time chance.
However, he sits behind Aramis Ramirez on the depth chart which means he could be in line for fairly regular time at the conclusion of any play so keep a wandering eye on Baker. He does have a little bit of power and could be an intriguing guy to watch if something were to happen to Aramis.
34. Brandon Wood, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
.146 average, 4 homers, 14 RBI, 1 SB, 20 runs (81 games)
I think we are all sick of waiting for this guy to pan out by now, but that power is still oh so inviting. Wood can’t seem to hit major league pitching, but wears out guys in the minors giving him that dreaded 4A tag.
We will forever be longing for Wood to replicate that one season that he had in the minors, but it was so long ago now that it is hard to hold on to. Keep him on your radar always, but don’t expect him to ever pan out.
35. Mat Gamel, Milwaukee Brewers
.309 average, 13 homers, 67 RBI, 3 SBs, 54 runs (82 games at AAA)
Gamel is a total trainwreck with a glove, and with Casey McGehee establishing himself as a solid offensive weapon, his history at third base could be a thing of the past.
Gamel played some outfield and first base in the minors and could be anticipating the departure of Prince Fielder if it comes to that. He has shown the ability to hit 20-25 homers in the minors with a strong batting average, but it is his defense that has kept him out of the majors.
2011 will be a big season for him as he needs to find a place in Milwaukee or perhaps his bags will be packed for a team that can find a place for him. Don’t think about drafting him, but it is a name that you need to know.
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