It could be a "Freeway Series," between Los Angeles and Anaheim for two southern California teams. Or it could be a (New Jersey) "Turnpike Series" for two teams in major cities in different Mid-Atlantic states, just off the one turnpike.
Or the two league rivalries of one Los Angeles-based team and one east coaster could reduce to a final contest featuring one of each.
What are absent from the pennant races this year are "small market teams" from the interior of the United States. No Minnesota Twins or Tampa Bay Rays. Not to mention Cleveland Indians or Pittsburgh Pirates.
The four teams competing in the current round all had payrolls of $100 million or more this year. Which is to say that they have more than their share high-paid stars.
Torii Hunter, Vladimir Guerrero, and Gary Matthews Jr. for the LA Angels; Manny Ramirez, Jason Schmidt, Jim Thome, Hiroki Kuroda, and Vicente Padilla for the LA Dodgers; Ryan Howard, Brett Myers, Brad Lidge, and Chase Utely of the Phillies; and A-Rod, Derek Jeter, Mark Teixeira, Hideki Matsui, Jorge Posada, Johnny Damon, plus three pitchers of the New York Yankees, all earned over $10 million this past year.
Three "low budget" teams, the St. Louis Cardinals, the Colorado Rockies, and the Minnesota Twins did make it to the Division Series, but that's all. And as discussed in a previous article, the high-budget Boston Red Sox's early demise was foreshadowed by their weakness against similar teams outside their division and on the west coast.
So far, the playoff results have rung "true" to the season results, which is to say that the team with the stronger season record has won each division series. There will be no team with an 80-something win season record winning the world series (as was true with the 83-win Cardinals in 2006).
On this basis, the Yankees ought to beat the Angels for the pennant, and then the Dodgers, in the World Series. This is a plausible result, but be warned that there are real possibilities for "upsets" along the way.
The Yankees' batting is about as good as the Angels' batting, meaning that superior Yankee pitching ought to give them the edge. But historically, Angels' pitching has been stronger against American League East teams than against the League as a whole.
This was certainly true recently, against the Boston Red Sox. Given this, plus the fact that the season series was 5-5, I would rate these two teams a toss-up for the American League Pennant.
On the other hand, the Los Angeles Dodgers appear to be genuine favorites against the Philadelphia Phillies, if for no other reason than they had two more days' rest. Their lineup is also more solid, overall, than Philadelphia's. And they won the season series 4-3.
People from eastern Pennsylvania will disagree with me, but I consider the Phillies "challengers," rather than a true championship team. They did win the World Series in 2008, against another "challenger" team, the Tampa Bay Rays. They also beat a much weaker Dodgers team in the playoffs last year. But they will not have these advantages in 2009.
Assuming that they beat the Angels, the Yankees might be modest favorites against the Dodgers. The New Yorkers have better hitting and a better bullpen, which might compensate for the Dodgers' better starting rotation. Overall, the Yankees may have a 30 percent chance of winning the World Series.
On the other hand, the Dodgers appear to be favorites in an all California matchup. They and the Angels were first in the Major Leagues in pitching and hitting, respectively, but the Dodgers rank much higher in the other's area of leadership than the Angels do.
Assuming that they are favorites in the pennant race also, the Dodgers have a 35 percent-40 percent of winning the World Series, and the Angels 20 percent. And the Dodgers did win two out of three in Anaheim this year in Interleague play.
The least likely result is that the Phillies will beat both the Dodgers and the American League Champions to repeat as World Series Champions. This possibility may be as low as 10-15 percent, versus 25 percent for two "coin flips."
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