Once upon a time Brian Roberts was among the elite second basemen in the game. Doesn’t that feel like decades ago at this point? Even before injuries limited him to just 59 games in 2010 Roberts’ star had lost a bit of its shine.
Just look at his stolen base totals in recent years:
- 2007 – 50 SB
- 2008 – 40 SB
- 2009 – 30 SB
- 2010 – 12 SB
The fact that it was back problems that limited him in ’10 only adds to the concern. Will the injuries continue to plague him and stop him from running as much as he did in the past? Obviously, without a significant number of stolen bases his value is going to plummet.
Stolen bases aren’t the only source of value for Roberts, though it is probably the biggest. From 2007-2009 he scored at least 103 runs every season (topping out at 110 in 2009). How many did he score last season? Just 28…
The Orioles have made several significant additions this offseason in an attempt to add some life to their offense. Among those added were Mark Reynolds, Derrek Lee and J.J. Hardy, all with the potential to drive in plenty of runs (despite their various other flaws). When you add them in with Nick Markakis, Luke Scott, Matt Wieters and others, you have to think that they will be able to score.
The real question is if Roberts will be able to get on base enough to benefit from it. A .283 career hitter, he hit .278 during his limited run in 2010. However, if the back injury hurts his speed, will he be able to continually enjoy a BABIP of .315 or better? If the speed is not quite what it once was, it wouldn’t be a complete surprise to see his average slip.
That means, of the three things he once brought to the table, there is a fairly big risk that he regresses in all of them. Sound promising yet?
Only twice has Roberts hit over 12 HR in a season. With a career HR/FB of 5.5%, it actually seems more likely that he hits fewer than 10 HR then seeing him even come close to his career high of 18 (done in 2005).
As far as RBI go, only twice in his career has he eclipsed 60. That really shouldn’t come as a surprise, as batting leadoff just doesn’t lend itself to RBI opportunities. If you are thinking he can help you there, you need to think again.
Obviously, Roberts has proven in the past that he can be among the best second basemen in the league, but those days are likely behind him. He was relatively unproductive upon returning from a back injury in 2010 (.278, 4 HR, 15 RBI, 28 R, 12 SB in 230 AB) and there certainly is reason to be skeptical of him returning to his glory days. At 33-years old, they simply could be behind him.
Is Roberts usable? Absolutely, but with the risk he brings with him he should be considered a low-end option, at best.
What are your thoughts of Roberts? How good could he be in 2011? Is he someone you would target ondraft day?
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Make sure to check out some of our 2011 projections:
- Buchholz, Clay
- Butler, Billy
- Choo, Shin-Soo
- Ethier, Andre
- Freese, David
- Hughes, Phil
- Jaso, John
- Johnson, Chris
- Morrow, Brandon
- Reyes, Jose
- Willingham, Josh
- Young, Michael
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