If you were to say that Yovani Gallardo is one of the best young pitchers in baseball, no one should give you a funny look or call you crazy. If he had been healthy last season, maybe the baseball world would regard him among the elite already, but two separate knee injuries limited him to just four starts, certainly slowing his progress.
In 2009, however, he is making his case, posting the following line:
8 Wins
104.2 Innings
2.75 ERA
1.15 WHIP
114 Strikeouts (9.80 K/9)
46 Walks (3.96 BB/9)
.258 BABIP
The real question is, can he duplicate these numbers in the season’s second half?
The first potential negative is the BABIP, which puts him in a tie for sixth in the league. Is that really something we can expect to continue? I wouldn’t think so, and when his luck starts to turn coupled with his inflated walk rate, his WHIP is going to suffer.
Will the walk rate continue to be as bad, however? Over his minor league career he posted a BB/9 of 3.2. Before you say that it was simply against lower level talent, in 77.2 innings at Triple-A in 2007 he matched that mark of 3.2.
After being recalled in 2007, he actually had a BB/9 of 3.0 over 110.1 innings pitched. Even recently he’s been marginally better, posting a 3.4 BB/9 over his last three starts (8 walks over 21.2 innings).
The other number that has to be factored in is the strikeouts. If batters aren’t putting the ball in play against him very often, a little bit worse luck isn’t going to have a significant impact on his WHIP.
His minor league career K/9 was 10.4, including a 12.7 during his ‘07 stay at Triple-A. While he may regress slightly there, I don’t think that it should be considered a guarantee by any stretch.
If he does keep his strikeouts up, even if the luck turns slightly, the improved control will help to offset that.
One thing he has improved on is his groundball rate, currently sitting at 46.6 percent, something he hadn’t shown since being promoted to the major leagues:
- 2007 - 38.2%
- 2008 - 40.0%
His career minor league groundball rate was 48.2 percent, however, including a 43.3 percent rate at Triple-A in ‘07. So, is it so hard to believe that he continues at his current pace? He’s proven in the past to be able to generate significant groundballs and I don’t see any reason to doubt that he will be able to continue to do so.
So, what we have here isa pitcher who:
- has the potential to maintain an elite WHIP even if a little bad luck were to strike him
- could continue to be among the top strikeout artists in the league
- can continue to get opposing hitters to drive balls into the ground
What’s not to like about that skill set?
Prior to the season I projected Gallardo to finish with a 3.47 ERA and 1.27 WHIP (click here to read my Quick Hit written in December), but I also included him as one of my Wild Predictions, saying that he would post a WHIP below 1.19 (click here to view).
As of right now, he’s making that prediction not so wild, and with the way he’s going there is no reason to believe that a huge regression is coming.
What do you think? Am I a little too optimistic on him? Is he going to come tumbling down or could he continue to be this impressive all year long?
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