The Chicago Cubs extended the 2016 World Series with a win in Game 5 on Sunday night, so the series will head back to Progressive Field as the Cleveland Indians look to wrap up the Fall Classic.
According to Odds Shark, the Indians are 5-4 underdogs despite having home-field advantage. Going by the pitching matchup, Chicago would likely be favored by most neutral fans.
The Cubs will be relying on 2015 Cy Young Award winner Jake Arrieta, who finished the regular season 18-8 with a 3.10 earned run average and a 3.52 FIP, according to Baseball-Reference.com. Arrieta's postseason has been slightly underwhelming, with the right-hander allowing seven earned runs in 16.2 innings.
Opposing him will be Josh Tomlin, who has been the opposite of Arrieta in that his work in the playoffs has exceeded his regular-season performance. Tomlin was 13-9 this year but had a 4.40 ERA. In 15.1 postseason innings, he has surrendered three earned runs.
MLB.com's Jordan Bastian noted that Tomlin's strong pitching goes back to the end of the regular season:
Kyle Schwarber's inclusion in Chicago's lineup is likely to be a big key in Game 6. The 23-year-old wasn't medically cleared to play in the outfield, so he was relegated to pinch-hitting duties in the last three games.
As Baseball Prospectus' Craig Goldstein joked, baseball fans have looked for any reason to get Schwarber in the batter's box again:
Being able to count on Schwarber for at least three at-bats will be huge for a Cubs offense that has been spotty throughout the Fall Classic.
For the Indians, their biggest task will be getting to Arrieta early. If they can grab a two- or three-run lead by the third or fourth inning, they'll only need Tomlin to pitch into the fifth before manager Terry Francona can turn things over to the bullpen.
One of the silver linings from Sunday's defeat was that Cleveland didn't use Andrew Miller. After throwing 44 pitches between Games 3 and 4, he'll have two nights off before he may be needed again.
As a result, Miller should be able to go two innings Tuesday, depending on his pitch count.
A loss for the Indians in Game 6 wouldn't be the end of the world. They'd still have a decisive Game 7 at home with their ace on the mound. If Miller has been Cleveland's best player in the playoffs, then Corey Kluber is right behind him.
On Sunday night, Indians second baseman Jason Kipnis said he doesn't want to keep the Cubs alive any longer than necessary to secure the Indians' third title, per USA Today's Bob Nightengale: "You don't want to give lineups like that momentum, or teams to start feeling good about themselves. So the best thing to do is kind of put them away before they can do that."
Kipnis may not get his wish. The middle of the Cubs order is getting back to form and will be even stronger with Schwarber. Tomlin's tendency to give up the long ball—1.86 home runs per nine innings, according to FanGraphs—could be a problem Tuesday.
While Chicago may be able to even up the series, the Indians would still get the edge in Game 7 with their hopes resting on Kluber's right arm.
World Series prediction: Indians in seven games.
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