All the stars align perfectly for MLB aces to dominate Tuesday's top-heavy daily fantasy slate.
Three premier lefties face teams that struggle mightily against southpaws. They're not the only hurlers benefiting from a fortuitous matchup. Two strikeout artists with stellar peripherals face opponents who aren't as tough as they appear. A trustworthy arm gets a strikeout-prone offense, and a youngster who flourishes at home pitches in front of his fans.
This is the wrong day to get cute at starting pitcher. There are no clearance bargains, but nearly every top name is a strong DraftKings play.
1. Madison Bumgarner, San Francisco Giants ($9,600) at MIL
Compared to Clayton Kershaw and David Price, Madison Bumgarner represents the frugal pick at $9,600. All three are studs with a great matchup, so gamers might as well ascertain the most value with the cheapest choice.
Against left-handed pitchers, the Milwaukee Brewers have registered a .253 on-base percentage and 25.1 strikeout percentage, both MLB lows. Their 5.6 walk rate ranks second worst behind the Kansas City Royals.
Bumgarner has shown no signs of fatigue after last year's busy October, generating a 2.84 ERA, 52 strikeouts and 10 walks through 57 innings. His opponent, Milwaukee's Matt Garza, has not fared as well with a 5.71 ERA, and the San Francisco Giants quietly boast a top-five weighted runs created plus (wRC+) against righties.
2. Clay Buchholz, Boston Red Sox ($7,700) at MIN
Sure, Clay Buchholz carries a 4.58 ERA, and the Minnesota Twins have scored 42 runs over their last eight games. Both seem like solid reasons to shy away from the Boston Red Sox's righty.
Hopefully, the competition agrees. Behind Buchholz's misleading ERA lies 9.85 strikeouts and 2.55 walks per nine innings, giving him a 3.15 fielding independent pitching (FIP). His poor luck is starting to fade; he holds a 2.49 ERA and 0.92 WHIP during his last three starts.
The Twins are hot, but they remain one of baseball's least productive offenses against right-handed pitchers. Against lefties, they lead MLB in runs scored.
Sure, they just shelled righty Joe Kelly for seven runs on Monday, but nobody said anything about playing Joe Kelly. Since a disastrous start at Yankee Stadium on April 12, Buchholz has performed like a legitimate ace, and it will begin to show on the surface.
3. David Price, Detroit Tigers ($10,600) at OAK
Lefty David Price mitigates Stephen Vogt and Josh Reddick, the Oakland Athletics' two most dangerous bats who inflict all of their damage against righties. As a result, Oakland has registered a dreadful .283 slugging percentage against southpaws, and gamers don't have to worry about the patient offense reaching base against an ace with a 1.47 BB/9 rate since 2013.
The 29-year-old created some early concern with lacking strikeout totals, but he has quelled everyone's fears by amassing 21 punchouts through his past two outings. Price would top the list if Oakland whiffed more, but he's still intriguing inside a spacious park against a club struggling to generate power.
4. Jacob deGrom, New York Mets ($10,000) vs. PHI
Since joining the New York Mets last May, Jacob deGrom has decimated the opposition at Citi Field:
The 2014 National League Rookie of the Year gets a home start against the Philadelphia Phillies, who rank last in wRC+ against righties. Following last week's one-hit, 11-strikeout gem against the St. Louis Cardinals, he certainly doesn't come cheap at $10,000, but the price hike is justified given the circumstances.
5. Jordan Zimmermann, Washington Nationals ($8,600) at CHC
Harnessing more pop than any other targeted offense, the Chicago Cubs aren't the easiest offense for Jordan Zimmermann to combat, but they strike out in droves. Offsetting Zimmermann's one weakness keeps him relevant with far more exciting options.
Since surrendering seven earned runs during his second start of the season, the 29-year-old has posted a 2.58 ERA. He has also lasted at least six innings in all seven outings, and he's affordable enough to pair with a high-profile ace in cash contests.
6. Clayton Kershaw, Los Angeles Dodgers ($12,200) vs. ATL
This is nothing against Clayton Kershaw. He's still wielding an 11.26 K/9 and 2.91 FIP despite a disappointing 4.32 ERA. There's no reason to panic. Unfortunately, DraftKings agrees, keeping his price tag at a sizable $12,200.
The Atlanta Braves have proved peskier than expected, but that performance doesn't extend to left-handers. They lose any semblance of discipline against southpaws, striking out more and walking less:
But as silly as this sounds, considering Kershaw costs significantly more than other top aces, is a 2.91 FIP good enough? Elite for a mere mortal's standards, it still represents his worst rate since 2010. Given the bounty of options available for consumption, paying top dollar for him isn't necessary on Tuesday.
Tournament Plays
Danny Salazar, Cleveland Indians ($9,100) vs. TEX
With so many top arms sharing the dais, Danny Salazar isn't worth the headache in cash contests. Despite his mouth-watering 12.37 K/9 and 1.85 BB/9, he implodes far too often, allowing five earned runs during his last tango with the Texas Rangers.
His massive upside, however, makes him a high-reward tournament play in a rematch against Texas, whose hot bats may cause others to shy away from the Cy Young talent.
Matt Shoemaker, Los Angeles Angels ($7,300) vs. SD
Despite his 8.53 K/9 and 1.83 BB/9 rates, Matt Shoemaker is saddled with baseball's second-highest FIP (5.81) among qualified starters behind Kyle Kendrick. His struggles are baffling, as he's great one day but abysmal the next.
For those willing to stomach the risk, Shoemaker has the arsenal to break open Tuesday tournaments. Buchholz, however, is a much safer bet around the same price range.
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Advanced statistics, updated as of Monday, courtesy of FanGraphs.
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