I’ve seen multiple places rank David Aardsma as a Top 20 relief pitcher heading into 2010. Some even have him ranked as a Top 15, borderline Top 10 option. I have to wonder, why? Are we talking about the same pitcher here?
I know, he was fantastic in 2010, just look at his line:
3 Wins
71.1 Innings
2.52 ERA
1.16 WHIP
80 Strikeouts (10.09 K/9)
34 Walks (4.29 BB/9)
.271 BABIP
However, are we so quick to ignore his history and simply look at what he did last season? This is the same pitcher with a career ERA of 4.38, including last seasons' sparkling number. From 2004-2008 he spent four seasons in the Major Leagues with four different teams, posting the following ERAs:
- 2004 - Giants - 6.75 ERA - 10.2 IP
- 2006 - Cubs - 4.08 ERA - 53.0 IP
- 2007 - White Sox - 6.40 ERA - 31.1 IP
- 2008 - Red Sox - 5.55 ERA - 48.2 IP
Are we to simply ignore this track record?
While you can credit a very good defense behind him, he also suddenly became a pitcher who generated significant groundballs:
- 2007 - 42.1%
- 2008 - 38.1%
- 2009 - 53.9%
His HR/FB was just 4.2 percent, allowing just four home runs. I know he calls a pitchers' park home, but this is a bit extreme. There is little chance of him being able to maintain that number.
While the strikeouts could very well be for real (career 9.13 K/9), so is the terrible control (career 5.17 BB/9). Don’t count on him limiting the base runners from free passes any time soon.
I’m not even going to mention the BABIP because, as a relief pitcher, it is possible that he can maintain a below average mark. Do I expect it to happen? Probably not, but it is still a possibility.
When we put things together, we get the following projection:
65.0 IP, 2 W, 4.29 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, 65 K (9.00 K/9), 34 BB (4.71 BB/9)
The bottom line is he was a mediocre relief pitcher, at best, who stepped into a situation and ran with it to have a tremendous season in 2009. Does that mean that he’s going to be able to repeat that success? Absolutely not.
He is the 30th closer on my draft board, meaning he’s an absolute last resort option if I miss out on every other available closer. To me, he’s a ticking time bomb just waiting to explode. That’s something that I want as far away from my roster as possible.
What are your thoughts on Aardsma? Could he repeat last season’s success? Do you have any interest in drafting him?
If you would like to see a free preview of the Rotoprofessor 2010 Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide (available for just $5), click here .
Make sure to check out some of our 2010 projections, including:
- Andrus, Elvis
- Arroyo, Bronson
- Baker, Scott
- Bartlett, Jason
- Beckham, Gordon
- Blanks, Kyle
- Burnett, A.J.
- Butler, Billy
- Cabrera, Everth
- Cain, Matt
- Correia, Kevin
- Davis, Chris
- Escobar, Alcides
- Furcal, Rafael
- Hamels, Cole
- Harang, Aaron
- Jones, Chipper
- Kershaw, Clayton
- Kouzmanoff, Kevin
- Kubel, Jason
- Lee, Derrek
- Lopez, Jose
- Markakis, Nick
- Nolasco, Ricky
- Oswalt, Roy
- Pedroia, Dustin
- Pena, Carlos
- Peralta, Jhonny
- Rasmus, Colby
- Reimold, Nolan
- Reynolds, Mark
- Roberts, Brian
- Shields, James
- Sizemore, Grady
- Suzuki, Ichiro
- Upton, B.J.
- Vazquez, Javier
- Votto, Joey
- Wallace, Brett
- Werth, Jayson
- Wieters, Matt
- Youkilis, Kevin
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