This week, I am going to look at five outfielders, at least 36-years old at the start of the season, who have the potential to make an impact on fantasy rosters this season.
The most obvious to be included is Manny Ramirez, but having recently discussed his signing (click here to read), we aren’t going to include him here. Instead, let’s look at a few other potential options.
Raul Ibanez - Philadelphia Phillies - 36-years old
Having moved from Seattle to Philadelphia, he is an interesting player to analyze. He’s been the man in the middle of the Mariners line-up for the past four seasons, averaging 24 HR, 107 RBI, and 90 R a season.
With the Phillies, it’s unlikely that he can match that type of RBI and R production, especially.
He’s going to be hitting fifth, behind Ryan Howard and Chase Utley, meaning that the RBI opportunities are unlikely to be as plentiful as they were. Just imagine how many times he’s going to step to the plate with the bases empty thanks to Howard having already cleared them.
Pat Burrell, who has filled the position the past few seasons, has averaged 93 RBI over the past three seasons. That’s still a great number, but if that’s the production you are going to get from Ibanez, it is a big drop-off.
Burrell has also averaged just 77 Runs over the past three years, and that seems like a very good expectation for Ibanez. Hitting lower in the order, even on a much better offensive team, isn’t going to lead to Ibanez circling the bases as often.
The power is another issue. The 24 HR average was only that high thanks to a 33 HR explosion he had in 2006, a number he’s never come close to replicating. Yes, he moves into a much better hitters park, so a slight increase could be in order, but I would not expect him to suddenly return to 30 HR potential.
I would have him maxing out in the 24-26 range.
He’s a very good option, but I wouldn’t expect him to continue posting the impressive lines he has the past few seasons. He’s no longer the key cog, but just an additional piece.
Brian Giles - San Diego Padres - 38-years old
Remember the days when Giles was a guarantee to hit 35 HR a season? That was a long-time ago (he last hit that many with 38 in 2002) and the chances of him returning to them are nil, especially calling Petco Park home.
He’s even seen a decline the past four seasons, going from 15 to 14 to 13 to 12. Well, if that trend were to continue, 11 would seem likely, wouldn’t it?
He does hit for a solid average (.306 last season), but that’s about all the potential help he brings. He has little speed, despite the fact that he used to routinely reach double-digit stolen bases. Now, if he reaches five, I’d be impressed.
The Padres line-up is not a juggernaut, to say the least, meaning that his chances to produce in the RBI and R departments are unlikely as well. With little more than potential average help, there are too many other options with upside worth grabbing.
Garret Anderson - Atlanta Braves - 36-years old
After spending his entire career with the Angels, Anderson moves to the NL to help fill a gaping hole in the Braves outfield. The problem is, like Giles, he is far from the productive player he once was.
Since hitting 29 HR with 116 RBI in 2003, his highs are 17 HR or 96 RBI (besides that, his high was 85 RBI).
The difference is that he still could bring plenty of offense to the table. In the past four seasons, his low in RBI was 80, and that was when he was not the featured cog in the offense (Vladimir Guerrero filled that role).
Obviously with Chipper Jones and Brian McCann in place, he’s not going to be the main man here either. Still, if he continues to hit fifth, there’s no reason to think that 80+ could not be realistic again.
Moving to a new league could have an impact, but in this day of free agency and interleague play, it’s likely that he has seen the majority of the pitchers already, especially given his age and experience.
I wouldn’t expect that to be an issue. I also wouldn’t expect the new park to influence his power. He’s posted consistent FB rates and HR/FB rates, so at this point it is safe to say he is what he is.
A career .296 hitter, his career low is .280, so he definitely is not going to hurt you there. He may not score a ton of runs, but with a useful average, mid-teen HR and a good amount of RBI he has definite value in five-OF’er leagues.
Gary Sheffield - Detroit Tigers - 40-years old
His swan song may have already come and gone, as Sheffield showed little last season to excite fantasy owners. He posted only one month with an average over .250, and considering that he is not the power source he once was, that type of struggle simply cripples his value.
Yeah, I know if he had stayed healthy he likely would have reached the 25 HR range once again, but if I’m going to carry an OF’er with an average of .250 or less, he had better have the potential to hit at least 35 HR to make up for it.
Does anyone really expect that type of rebound?
He does offer a little speed, even at his age, though injuries have become a huge concern. He had only nine last season and the 22 from 2007 appears to be an aberration. Yeah, he could get to 10-12, which should not be discounted, but they don’t help offset the other risks he imposes.
I’d pass on him.
Ken Griffey Jr. - Seattle Mariners - 39-years old
Health is the only thing that keeps Griffey from being a valuable fantasy option, even at his age. Yeah, he struggled last season with a lower average and not as much power, but as recently as 2007 he hit .277 with 30 HR, and there’s no reason to think that he doesn’t have one last run in him.
He’ll likely fill the role that Ibanez held for the past few years, meaning that he certainly has the potential to be a source of some RBI. I don’t think 100 will happen, but would anyone be surprised to see him reach the 80-85 range with 25 HR if he stays on the field?
I know, that’s a huge if, which is reason enough to stay away, but in the late rounds of five-OF’er leagues, you certainly could do significantly worse. I would have no problem taking the gamble myself, because he certainly brings the potential to help.
What about you? Would you take any of these guys? Are there any other older OF’ers you’d consider?
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