The past few seasons have certainly been a roller-coaster ride for David Wright, haven’t they?
After hitting .302 with 33 HR, 124 RBI, 115 R and 15 SB in 2008 it appeared that Wright was on the verge of becoming one of the elite players in the game. How many players could possibly match that type of production? You can count them on one hand.
However, the bottom fell out in 2009 as the Mets moved into Citi Field and were sabotaged by injuries.
Wright was left as the lone soldier in a cavernous ballpark, and the results were horrendous. While he did hit .307, it came along with just 10 HR, 72 RBI, 88 R and 27 SB. To make matters even worse, the average came courtesy of a .394 BABIP, meaning we all knew that there was little chance that he could maintain it.
What were we supposed to expect in 2010? Was he going to rebound? Was he going to continue to flounder? Could getting hit in the head during the ’10 season continue to haunt him?
Those who expected the Wright of old were probably slightly disappointed, though he certainly did post a solid line:
587 At-Bats
.283 Batting Average (166 Hits)
29 Home Runs
103 RBI
87 Runs
19 Stolen Bases
.354 On Base Percentage
.503 Slugging Percentage
.335 Batting Average on Balls in Play
Those numbers are certainly closer to what we have come to expect from Wright.
Now, the question is: Do they justify spending a first-round pick on him? According to Mock Draft Central he has an ADP of 9.94, so clearly many people value him there.
One of my major concerns—which is shared by many—is Wright’s increasing strikeout rate. Let’s look at the numbers the past few years:
- 2007 – 19.0 percent
- 2008 – 18.8 percent
- 2009 – 26.2 percent
- 2010 – 27.4 percent
It is no longer a one-year stumble, as Wright has posted elevated rates for back-to-back seasons. Unless he is able to rectify things, it is going to make it nearly impossible to hit .300.
Another problem is an increased fly-ball rate in 2010:
- 2008 – 38.2 percent
- 2009 – 35.9 percent
- 2010 – 42.7 percent
It’s far from an outrageous rate, so I wouldn’t be overly concerned, but it is a slight indication that he may be trying to hit home runs. Could Citi Field be in his head? It’s certainly possible, and if he does get even more “homer happy”—overcompensating to prove the power is still there—his overall numbers will undoubtedly suffer.
As we have discussed with other hitters (most notably Aaron Hill), the more fly balls you hit, the less likely you are to have a good BABIP. It just goes without saying that more balls in the air does not lend itself to significant luck.
So, between the strikeouts and the potential for him to see a decreased BABIP, would it be a complete shock to see him hit closer to .260? I’m not saying that he will, considering his long track record of hitting .300, but the risk is certainly there.
While Wright has continually shown speed, last season he was successful on just 19 of 30 attempts. That simply is not good and you have to again wonder if Wright was pushing it in an attempt to regain the trust of the fans and to prove that there was nothing to worry about.
He has never had that poor of a success-rate in the past, so I wouldn’t put much stock in it, but it is worth mentioning. He’s only had two seasons of more than 20 SB, so don’t go expecting him to swipe 30 bags again.
Yes, he plays a weak position and is going to give you at least 25 HR with around 90 runs and 100-plus RBI. Those are all great numbers, but are they first-round numbers? Not to me—at least not with the risk that his averages struggles.
I would much rather go with a Carl Crawford or Robinson Cano late in the first round, even if you are dead set on filling 3B early on.
How much different is Wright’s production going to be to say Ryan Zimmerman, who brings the same type of power, run and RBI potential with more certainty in the average department? Yes, you give up a little speed, but having Crawford more than makes up for it.
To me, Wright is a good player. He’s a good pick in the second round, but I wouldn’t use a first round pick on him. What about you? Is Wright a player you would consider in Round 1? Why or why not?
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