Clayton Kershaw, the Dodgers 2006 first-round draft pick, has slowly been gaining steam since making his Major League debut in 2008. He’s been highly regarded since the day he first donned a Los Angeles Dodgers uniform, but his 2010 campaign showed us just how good he could be:
13 Wins
204.1 Innings
2.91 ERA
1.18 WHIP
212 Strikeouts (9.34 K/9)
81 Walks (3.57 BB/9)
.275 BABIP
There really is little not to like from those numbers, isn't there? There also is nothing overly unrealistic about them either. The BABIP is not overly lucky. He posted a strand rate of 76.2 percent, right along the lines of his career mark of 76.5 percent.
Where he has vastly improved since making his debut is in his walk rate:
- 2008 – 4.35 BB/9
- 2009 – 4.79 BB/9
- 2010 – 3.57 BB/9
Is he able to replicate, if not better, that number is what will ultimately determine his overall success in 2011. First of all, by limiting the walks, he was able to work deeper into games. In 2009 he threw 5.63 innings per start, leading to just eight wins. In 2010 he threw 6.38 innings per start, and you could see the increase in his wins from the statistics above.
The deeper a starting pitcher can go into games, the more opportunity he is going to have for wins. There just is no way around that, because you never know exactly what your bullpen is going to do. One would have thought Jonathan Broxton would’ve been able to hold on to just about every lead he was handed, but that wasn’t the case in ’10. The more outs you can get yourself, the more you put your fate into your own hands.
The drop in the walk rate also allows him to post a potentially elite WHIP. He was just outside the Top 20 in 2010 and, with his strikeout rate, there is no reason to think that he can’t repeat that type of performance again as long as he maintains the walk rate. If he can take a step forward, he is going to be among the best in the league.
What is interesting to note is that as his strikeouts fell during the year, his walk rate improved. In the first half of the season he had a K/9 of 10.28, but a BB/9 of 4.01. In the second half he had a K/9 of 8.22, but a BB/9 of 3.03.
Is there any conclusion we can draw from this? Do we think Kershaw is going to focus on pounding the strike zone, lowering his strikeout rate in favor of walking fewer batters?
It’s something to watch, but it is hard to imagine Kershaw not being among the elite strikeout artists in the game. If he can maintain that, along with the impeccable second half control, the sky truly is the limit.
Let’s take a look at what I am projecting for him in 2011:
200.0 IP, 16 W, 2.88 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 211 K (9.50 K/9), 80 BB (3.60 BB/9)
He’s already proven that he has the stuff to be a Top 10 pitcher, making him a tremendous selection on draft day.
What are your thoughts of Kershaw? Can he be a Top 10 pitcher in 2011? What are the chances of that happening?
**** Make sure to order your copy of the Rotoprofessor 2011 Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide, selling for just $5, by clicking here. ****
Make sure to check out some of our 2011 projections:
- Barmes, Clint
- Buchholz, Clay
- Butler, Billy
- Choo, Shin-Soo
- Drew, Stephen
- Ethier, Andre
- Freese, David
- Hudson, Tim
- Hughes, Phil
- Jaso, John
- Johnson, Chris
- Uggla, Dan
- Morrow, Brandon
- Phillips, Brandon
- Reyes, Jose
- Reynolds, Mark
- Rios, Alex
- Sanchez, Gaby
- Stanton, Mike
- Suzuki, Kurt
- Wieters, Matt
- Willingham, Josh
- Young, Michael
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