We all know Max Scherzer’s 2010 story. It was a tale of two seasons, to say the least, as we can tell by his splits before he was sent down to the minors and after it:
- Prior to his demotion: 42.0 IP, 7.29 ERA, 1.67 WHIP, 5.57 K/9, 3.43 BB/9
- After his recall: 153.2 IP, 2.47 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 9.28 K/9, 3.17 BB/9
Obviously, the strikeouts certainly leap out at you. Whether it was his transition to the AL or some other explanation, we all knew that he was a significant strikeout artist. Seeing him able to strike out more than four batters in a game just once over his first eight starts was downright scary. There was no explanation for it, and he proved that it was nothing more than an aberration.
Upon returning to the majors on May 30, he struck out 14 batters in 5.2 innings against Oakland. He then proceeded to strike out seven or more batters 14 times over his last 23 starts. Now that’s a whole lot more like it.
Throughout his career he has proven that he can be a strikeout per inning guy. For his major-league career he has a K/9 of 9.04. Over his minor-league career he is at 11.64. In other words, there is no reason not to believe in his final 23 starts, at least from a strikeout perspective.
What about the rest of the numbers?
Believe it or not, the WHIP is very much a believable number, as it came courtesy of a .285 BABIP and 3.17 BB/9. Exactly which of those numbers do we not believe? It certainly isn’t like he was overly lucky, nor is it like the walk rate is significantly lower than that of the rest of his career (3.28 in the majors).
Yes, he easily could fall a bit in BABIP, but there is an awful lot to like there.
However, there is reason to be a bit skeptical about the ERA. Just look at his strand rates for the final four months:
- June: 75.4 percent
- July: 83.7 percent
- August: 83.3 percent
- September: 78.8 percent
OK, so we are to believe that his ERA is going to regress, most likely. Of course, that’s not to say that he is going to fall off a cliff and post an ERA of 4.50 or 5.00 anytime soon. Even if his luck regresses, would we expect him to be worse than a 3.75 or so?
Let’s take a look at what I am projecting for him in 2011:
200.0 IP, 15 W, 3.51 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 195 K (8.78 K/9), 73 BB (3.29 BB/9)
It was an odd year for Scherzer, but the moral of the story is that we can safely ignore his poor start and simply focus on what he did after returning to the majors. He brings a potentially elite strikeout rate to go along with a good ERA and WHIP. What exactly is there not to like? He’s a top 30 starting pitcher, without a second thought.
What are your thoughts on Scherzer? How good can he be in 2011? What type of numbers are you expecting?
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