Here’s an early look at the 2011 First Base rankings.
1. Albert Pujols, St. Louis Cardinals: Turned in another fabulous season, hitting .312 with 115 runs, 183 hits, 42 HRs, 118 RBI, 14 SBs, 103 walks and a 1.011 OPS. He truly is a machine and should be the No. 1 player taken in fantasy drafts.
2. Joey Votto, Cincinnati Reds: Potential realized. Votto went from a guy known in fantasy circles to a guy who edged the great Albert Pujols in MVP voting. Votto hit .324 with 106 runs, 177 hits, 37 HRs, 113 RBI, 16 SBs, 81 walks and a 1.024 OPS.
3. Miguel Cabrera, Detroit Tigers: Hit .328 with 111 runs, 180 hits, 38 HRs, 126 RBI, 89 walks and a 1.042 WHIP. As steady as anybody in the league and the addition of Victor Martinez should only help matters. The lack of stolen bases keeps him from the two slot.
4. Adrian Gonzalez, Boston Red Sox: A-Gone averaged 34.3 HRs and 104.8 HRs in his past four seasons with the Padres. Now he goes to more of a hitter’s park with a lineup that includes Carl Crawford, Dustin Pedroia, Jacoby Ellsbury and Kevin Youkilis. Get your popcorn ready, Sox fans.
5. Mark Teixeira, New York Yankees: Tex struggled by his standards hitting .256. He still managed to score 113 runs with 33 HRs and 108 RBI. He’s too good to continue to struggle so look for a return to form in 2011.
6. Ryan Howard, Philadelphia Phillies: Speaking of regression, Howard saw his runs scored (-18), HRs (-14) and RBI (-33) take major hits in 2010. He averaged 49.5 HRs and 143 RBI in his previous four seasons, so I’m not expecting his regression to continue at just 31 years of age.
7. Prince Fielder, Milwaukee Brewers: Another bopper that struggled to get on track. His 141 RBI in 2009 seems like a fluke, but he’s a good bet for 35 HRs and 100-plus RBI.
8. Kevin Youkilis, Boston Red Sox: Youk's problem isn’t performing, it’s staying healthy. He was limited to 102 games last year. In fact, his career high in games played is 147 so you’re taking a little bit of a risk drafting him, especially considering he’s returning to the hot corner. Still, in that lineup he’s good for .300-plus, 90-plus runs, 25-plus HRs and 90-plus RBI, and those are low estimates.
9. Justin Morneau, Minnesota Twins: Speaking of staying healthy, Morneau had an MVP caliber season going before being lost mid-season with a concussion. He hit .345 with a 1.055 WHIP. He scored 53 runs with 18 HRs and 56 RBI in 81 games. He’s also a considerable risk because the next concussion could end not only his season, but his career. He does, however, come with substantial reward potential.
10. Adam Dunn, Chicago White Sox: Dunn isn’t a sexy pick, but has averaged 40.3 HRs and 101.3 RBI in his past seven seasons. It’s his first time playing for an American League team and is a career .250 hitter, so there is a little concern.
11. Kendry Morales, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim: Hopefully for Morales, the freak accidents are behind him. Rolling with Kendry as your No. 1 will also be a leap of faith considering he only had 51 games to prove his 2009 breakout season wasn’t a fluke.
12. Billy Butler, Kansas City Royals: Butler saw his HRs (-6) and RBI (-15) dip in 2010, but he hit a career-high .318. I expect the power to return while maintaining a .310-plus season.
13. Victor Martinez, Detroit Tigers: Let’s face it, you’re drafting V-Mart as a catcher. He won’t see may games at first base because of Cabrera, but should see his named penciled in the lineup card as the DH from time to time. If he can stay healthy, you’re looking at a .300, 20-HR 100-RBI season.
14. Paul Konerko, Chicago White Sox: Konerko displayed his usual penchant for the long ball with 39 HRs and 111 RBI last year, but added a new facet to his game by hitting .312. Considering he’ll be 35 this year, I’m hesitant to believe he can match the power numbers. I certainly think the average will fall back towards his career mark of .280.
15. Buster Posey, San Francisco Giants: Like V-Mart, Posey will largely be drafted as a catcher, but he does maintain 1B eligibility. He really showed maturity for his age (23 when the season starts) hitting .288 in the playoffs. He hit .305 with 18 HRs and 67 RBI as a rookie. Assuming he can avoid the sophomore slump, he should be in line for 20-plus HRs and 75-plus RBI.
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