Fantasy Baseball 2012: The Max Scherzer Trade-Value Conundrum

I could not have envisioned the context of this entry just five days ago...but here it is.

On the strength of his 15-strikeout gem against the Pittsburgh Pirates on May 20, Tigers pitcher Max Scherzer (3-3, 63 strikeouts in 2012) has emerged as a coveted asset in trade talks, primarily with squads chasing strikeouts.

Sunday's stellar outing (which included only one walk) was already Scherzer's second double-digit strikeout effort and fourth of nine or more Ks since April 13.

There's also an ERA angle to consider here: Before his May 5 start against the White Sox, Scherzer (5.73 seasonal ERA) and Tigers pitching coach Jeff Jones apparently closed a hole in the pitcher's delivery. Since that tutorial, Scherzer has surrendered just 10 earned runs in his last four starts (3.73 ERA during that span).

During spring training, I had Scherzer pegged as the No. 33 starting pitcher, a ranking that has looked boldly prescient at times and woefully inadequate for others. (Scherzer has allowed five or more runs three times this season.)

Looking at his next five starts (@ Twins, @ Red Sox, vs. Indians, @ Cubs, vs. Rockies), Scherzer has a realistic capacity for three wins and 38 strikeouts.

Obviously, Scherzer is not in Tigers teammate Justin Verlander's class; but as No. 4 fantasy starters go, he compares favorably to Colby Lewis, Tommy Hanson or Josh Beckett.

(For the record, AccuScore has Scherzer projected for 7.2 victories, 139.3 strikeouts, a 4.35 ERA and 1.35 WHIP from this point forward—May 23 to Sept. 30.)

Here's a balanced, three-tiered breakdown of Scherzer's adjusted trade value in 12-team roto leagues:

1-for-1
Bryan LaHair, Melky Cabrera, Nick Markakis or Drew Stubbs

2-for-2
Scherzer/Michael Cuddyer for Yovani Gallardo/Jason Kipnis
Scherzer/Jason Heyward for Anibal Sanchez/Andre Ethier
Scherzer/Ichiro Suzuki for Matt Cain/Justin Morneau

2-for-3
Scherzer/Ian Kinsler for Matt Holliday/J.P. Arencibia/Tim Hudson
Scherzer/Jose Bautista for Michael Young/Brandon Phillips/C.J. Wilson
Scherzer/Joe Mauer for Austin Jackson/Jonathan Lucroy/Jordan Zimmermann
Scherzer/Curtis Granderson for Hunter Pence/Erik Bedard/Jose Reyes

Jay Clemons can be reached on Twitter, day or night, at @ATL_JayClemons.

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