Two weeks from now, MLB will return in all its glory, leaving precious time for fantasy baseball players to draft a winning squad.
Let's hope you didn't jump the gun on draft day. If so, most of your starting pitchers are already headed to the disabled list, or worse—undergoing Tommy John surgery.
For those holding court this week or next, mock drafts offer indispensable practice before the real thing. Think of it as your PSAT, only without the registration and waking up to spend a Saturday morning trapped inside school.
Using FantasyPros' Draft Wizard, I completed a simulated mock draft on Saturday night. Here are the results from the 12-team trial run, done under the assumption of a five-by-five rotisserie league using standard ESPN.com roster sizes.
Consensus expert rankings and average draft positions (ADP) from multiple sites guide the other teams' automated selections. I randomly drew the No. 5 pick.
Analysis
The program projects my team to finish 10th with 34 points in hitting and 30 in pitching. I, however, feel much better about the results.
I certainly took some risks throughout the draft, gambling on the health of Hanley Ramirez and Michael Wacha while anticipating breakouts from Jason Heyward, Kolten Wong, Gregory Polanco and Yasmani Grandal.
Yasiel Puig is no lock, either. His .366 batting average on balls in play (BABIP) over two years is puzzlingly high for someone with a 51.1 percent ground-ball rate. He'll also need to exceed last season's 16 home runs to justify the Round 2 nod.
Batting average won't be a strength, but I'd rather fill my plate with speed and power. Wong, Polanco and Adam Eaton can each swipe 25-30 bags, but Leonys Martin is the real moneymaker on the basepaths.
According to The Dallas Morning News' Gerry Fraley, the Texas Rangers will insert the center fielder into the leadoff role.
“There is a consistency to having Leonys at the top of the lineup on a daily basis,” manager Jeff Banister said. “My mindset, the coaching staff’s mindset, is let’s give this kid every opportunity to have all those at-bats.”
In 40 games batting first last year, Martin hit .298 with 12 steals and 22 runs scored. The extra plate appearances make him a candidate to steal 35-40 bases while scoring around 85 runs, a huge coup for a mid-round outfielder.
Everyone else seems grim on Cole Hamels because the Philadelphia Phillies won't offer run support, but wins are too random to accurately forecast. I'll take a reliable ace and worry about the fluky stat later.
The starting staff isn't loaded, but I'm loving the relief corps. While I'm usually adverse to paying for top closers, Cody Allen came at a reasonable price given his stellar 11.76 strikeouts per nine innings (K/9). Taking his 1.49 ERA and 10.60 K/9 rate into the ninth inning, Joaquin Benoit is not receiving enough respect as a fantasy closer.
Combine Andrew Miller and Brad Boxberger's 2014 stats, and you get a 2.20 ERA, 0.82 WHIP and 207 strikeouts over 127 innings. Oh yeah, saves aren't out of the question for either dominant reliever.
Joe Girardi is taking his time announcing whether Dellin Betances or Miller will close for the New York Yankees. With Jake McGee targeting a late-April return from arthroscopic elbow surgery, Boxberger can secure the Tampa Bay Rays' ninth-inning gig and never let it go.
This team isn't perfect, but I'd finish better than 10th if this were an actual league played to fruition. Now let's give a special look at two values from this mock who always seem available for the taking as late discounts.
Sleepers
Collin McHugh, SP, Houston Astros
I understand the skepticism on Collin McHugh. During 47.1 prior MLB innings spread from 2012 and 2013, he allowed 47 earned runs while notching 28 strikeouts. Then he went to the Houston Astros, where the righty transformed from subpar organization depth to bona fide ace.
McHugh posted a 2.73 ERA, 1.02 WHIP and 157 strikeouts through 154.2 innings. He also brandished great control, issuing just 41 walks. While a .259 batting average on balls in play (BABIP) suggests some good fortune, he didn't pitch astronomically over his head with a 3.11 fielding independent pitching (FIP).
For comparison's sake, Johnny Cueto registered a 3.30 FIP during his breakout campaign. There's no doubting McHugh had a sensational season, one that would easily make him a top-20 hurler if repeated.
Of course, justifiable fears of regression keep him from rising that far up the draft board. In this mock, 160 players went ahead of a pitcher who punched out over a batter per inning. Per FantasyPros' data, he is on average the No. 52 starting pitcher off the board, although a few pitchers ahead of him are now out of commission.
As a No. 4 or 5 fantasy starter, it's worth the gamble to see if his adjustments stick. If not, dump him for this year's version of McHugh. If he doesn't fall off a cliff, he's a tremendous value pick.
Jhonny Peralta, SS, St. Louis Cardinals
Jhonny Peralta is a shortstop who hit 21 home runs last season, but he turns into a ghost in draft rooms.
Nobody wants a boring 32-year-old without major upside in any category. Most gamers also need speed from the position, and Peralta won't provide any more than some loose change in that department. But if you're searching for a steady veteran with pop, he's your man.
Only Ian Desmond offered more homers at short (24) last year. Hanley Ramirez was the only qualified shortstop with a higher slugging percentage (.448) than Peralta's .443.
Last year's power probably represents his peak, with 15 marking a more realistic baseline. Even if he hits .265 with 15 dingers and decent counting numbers, Peralta makes a great middle infielder for drafters who located enough speed elsewhere.
In my mock, he went a round after Javier Baez, who may start in the minors due to a dreadful spring. Getting a borderline top-10 shortstop after Round 15 works for me.
Note: All advanced statistics are courtesy of FanGraphs.
Follow me on Twitter for more fantasy baseball analysis.
Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com
- Login to post comments