We are a little more than halfway through June, so let’s take a look at the players who are mired in deep slumps based on BABIP for the month.
Is there anyone that an owner may be willing to jump ship on that’s worth buying? Let’s take a look.
1. Vernon Wells, Toronto Blue Jays: .157
His renaissance has hit a rough patch, though the doubters will certainly be viewing this as a sign that it is time to jump ship. Maybe it is, but he’s still making contact, which gives hope (only five Ks over his last 13 games). In his last 12 games he’s had just five hits, four for extra bases (two doubles and two home runs).
Is he the player he was in April (.337, eight HR) or May (.278, five HR)? Probably not, but he’s not this bad either. If you are in a five-outfielder format, he’s certainly shown enough to prove worthy of ownership. At the same time, I wouldn’t be going out and spending a lot of time trying to acquire him either.
2t. Edwin Encarnacion, Toronto Blue Jays: .162
He returned from the DL with a bang, hitting six HR over his first six games, but has been virtually invisible since. He had a 19-game stretch where he went 7-for-60 with 0 HR, three RBI, and four R. It’s encouraging that he hadn’t been striking out much (nine Ks) and has been drawing a fair share of walks (eight BBs) in June.
Really, it is just a lot of bad luck, but the Blue Jays have grown tired of waiting and sent him to Triple-A. He should return at some point, you would think, or another team will roll the dice on him.
2t. Jose Bautista, Toronto Blue Jays: .162
Well, the hot streak was going to have to end sooner or later, right? His average is down to .227, as he’s gone 13 games without a home run. He strikes out a ton (29.1 percent strikeout rate in June), meaning that even if the luck turns, just how much are you going to get?
Having already set a career high in home runs, is it unthinkable that his power doesn’t fully come back? It was certainly fun while it lasted, but it shouldn’t be a big surprise that he’s now struggling.
4. Travis Hafner, Cleveland Indians: .163
Does anyone really care? One of the few “true” DHs in the league, he really doesn’t bring much to the table at this point. He’s not worth considering anyway.
5. Matt Wieters, Baltimore Orioles: .167
He really just can’t seem to get things on track, can he? Since June 10 he’s gone 3-for-33 with one HR. If you look at his minor league numbers, you know he’s simply not this bad. He’s been unlucky overall with a .269 BABIP, and the HR/FB is at just 7.8 percent. Just look at his minor league career, having hit .343 with 32 HR in 578 AB, and you know it should translate to more than this.
If someone in your league is giving up on him, I would certainly be willing to buy. He’s going to turn it around sooner or later, as I’ve said before (click here to view a previous article I wrote about him).
6. Alfonso Soriano, Chicago Cubs: .185
He’s striking out 27.1 percent of the time, simply making matters worse. Even if he wasn’t unlucky, he’d still be struggling. For the season he has a 25.6 percent strikeout rate, so this isn’t a complete aberration.
The power has come back, but he’s also at a 53.5 percent fly-ball rate (he’s only been above 48.2 percent once since 2002). It appears that the power is going to regress as well, so if there’s an owner willing to buy high on him, I wouldn’t hesitate.
7t. Shane Victorino, Philadelphia Phillies: .204
For someone who has been playing so well overall, it’s surprising to see him find his way onto this list. The thing is, his success hasn’t been in the average department (.247), as his BABIP for the season is actually at .250 (though he has 11 HR, 41 RBI, 42 R, and 16 SB).
He’s been hitting for power, in part thanks to a significantly inflated fly-ball rate of 42.1 percent (last season he was at 33.2 percent). That could help to explain things, but given his extensive track record, I would expect him to improve in the average department. I would be buying if the price is right.
7t. Ryan Ludwick, St. Louis Cardinals: .204
For the year his BABIP is at .316, so it appears that the first few weeks of June have simply been a regression back to the mean. At .276 with 11 HR, 41 RBI, and 38 R, I don’t think there is anyone who is panicking over this midseason slump. He should continue to be a must use option in all formats moving forward.
9. Casey McGehee, Milwaukee Brewers: .208
He started with a bang (nine HR, 41 RBI through May), but he never profiled to be that type of player. The fall-off is not a surprise, but that doesn’t mean that he won’t have value moving forward. No, he’s not an elite slugger and an RBI machine, but hitting primarily fifth behind Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder (who we’ll discuss in a bit), the opportunities are going to be there.
Could he drive in another 50 RBI the rest of the way? Quite possibly. Is he a .188 hitter (his current June average)? Absolutely not. He had an 18.9 percent strikeout rate last season and is at 17.1 percent for the year, yet has struck out 23.4 percent of the time during June.
Look for better days ahead, meaning if someone thinks he has peaked and just wants to be rid of him, you may be able to get him for a discount.
10. Aaron Hill, Toronto Blue Jays: .213
The fourth Blue Jay to find his way onto this list—it speaks volumes, doesn’t it? Hill has hardly been striking out (6.0 percent), which makes you think that his struggles are completely luck-related.
Then again, he has a fly-ball rate of 51.6 percent and a line-drive rate of 9.1 percent for the season. He’s never had a line-drive rate below 17.3 percent (in his injury-shortened 2008 campaign), so you have to think that he possibly has gotten home run happy with his swing. Can he correct the problem and turn things around? Yeah, but it’s going to take a lot of work.
I like Hill, but I am certainly nervous about him moving forward. If someone is selling, I’d consider it, but I wouldn’t pay very much to get him.
What are your thoughts on these players? Is there anyone you are trying to buy? Anyone you are ignoring completely?
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