Some closers are safe bets to perform on a year-in, year-out basis. We all know who they are, and depending on your strategy when it comes to closers, most of us want to own them.
For those who like waiting until the late rounds to fill the spot, you must realize that all closers are not created equal. Just because someone appears to be a lock to close games out, it does not make him an option worth targeting.
One such closer is Brad Lidge who, since his epic 2008 campaign, has been a fairly big liability. On the surface 2010, doesn’t look too badly:
1 Win
27 Saves
45.2 Innings
2.96 ERA
1.23 WHIP
52 Strikeouts (10.25 K/9)
24 Walks (4.73 BB/9)
.243 BABIP
However, when we start digging in, there are a significant number of reasons to be concerned.
First of all, is anyone willing to bet that Lidge is going to stay healthy for the full year? Over the past two seasons, he has had three separate trips to the DL:
- 2009 – Knee
- 2010 – Two separate trips due to elbow issues
If that weren’t enough of a concern, you also have to look at what has actually been a declining strikeout rate. From 2004-2008, his low K/9 was an 11.82 in 2007.
In the two subsequent seasons, he has been at 9.36 and 10.25. Those aren’t bad numbers, but they are clearly going in the wrong direction.
The fall could be thanks to a fastball that is clearly losing some zip. At 35 years old, that shouldn’t be a surprise, but is he going to be able to reassess his abilities and adjust?
This is a player who once averaged 96.0 mph on his fastball for an entire season, yet clocked in at just 91.7 mph in ’10. Maybe the elbow issues helped to cause it, but who’s to say that he’s even over them?
Without the zip on his fastball, the control, which has always been an issue, becomes an even greater concern. Just look at the walk rates over the past three seasons:
- 2008 – 4.54
- 2009 – 5.22
- 2010 – 4.73
Yes, the results were there in two of the three years, but there was also a lot of luck involved, especially in ’10.
His .243 BABIP and 82-percent strand rate are repeatable, especially from a relief pitcher who works just an inning at a time, but he also could regress back to the mean.
He is no longer among the elite in the game, not by a longshot. In fact, there’s probably a better chance that he blows up and loses the job as opposed to rediscovering his 2008 campaign.
The Phillies are trying to win a World Series, meaning they aren’t going to be shy about making a change if need be. There is just too much risk involved to select him over other options.
According to Mock Draft Central, he’s currently the 18th relief pitcher coming off the board, before guys like Matt Thornton and Joe Nathan. Do those two have risk? Absolutely, but the reward, at least at this point, appear to be higher than Lidge’s.
What are your thoughts on Lidge? Is he a player you would target? Why or why not?
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Make sure to check out some of our 2011 projections:
- Barmes, Clint
- Buchholz, Clay
- Butler, Billy
- Choo, Shin-Soo
- Drew, Stephen
- Ethier, Andre
- Freese, David
- Hudson, Tim
- Hughes, Phil
- Kendrick, Howie
- Jaso, John
- Johnson, Chris
- Uggla, Dan
- Morrow, Brandon
- Phillips, Brandon
- Reyes, Jose
- Reynolds, Mark
- Rios, Alex
- Sanchez, Gaby
- Span, Denard
- Stanton, Mike
- Suzuki, Kurt
- Walker, Neil
- Wieters, Matt
- Willingham, Josh
- Young, Michael
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