Round 11
Nelson Cruz broke out in a big way in AAA last year with 37 homers, and then hit seven more after coming to the big leagues. There are a few concerns about him however. One is that he is 29 years old, if he was this good why did it take so long for him to get to the majors.
Two, the Pacific Coast League is known to inflate hitting stats. Three, he had a few good seasons in the minors before, but nothing that approached his 2008 season. He is a popular sleeper, just don’t stretch too far for him.
Brad Hawpe is a pretty consistent hitter and you can pretty much figure that you are going to get 23-28 homers, 85-95 RBI, and he will hit between .285-.295. He is a great third outfielder to have on your team, and is a good safe pick. If he were ever to leave Colorado however, it would be a different story.
Round 12
It is hard to know what to expect out of Lastings Milledge because he’s never been at any stop in the majors or minors for very long. The Mets had a world of hope for the future for him before shipping him to Washington. His personality has become a question mark, but the not the skillz.
However, there are a number of safer picks on the board still at outfield, and unless you are the type who likes to gamble on youth, I’d wait on Milledge.
Jayson Werth is being looked at as a high class sleeper because of his 20/20 numbers in 2008. Those are good numbers, but if you look at the rest of them it will explain why he is lasting until now.
His batting average wasn’t spectacular at .273 and he only drove in 64 runs. A pretty decent value here, but keep your eye on the big picture.
Milton Bradley is a talented player but has one tremendous problem. No, it’s not his temper, it is his injury history. The 126 games he played in 2008 was the most he had played in four years, and the fact that he is going to the Cubs isn’t helping.
Now that he is in the National League means there is no DH anymore, meaning if he’s going to play he also has to play the field.
Round 13
Even though he had 68 steals last year, it is hard to choose a one category player in round 13. Willy Taveras led the National League in steals, but he offers you nothing else. He hit .251, scored only 64 runs, hit only one home run, and drove in only 26 runs. I couldn’t take him until much later.
Pat Burrell added years to his career by going to play for Tampa Bay where he can get out of left field and just focus on hitting.
His average is going to kill you, as he generally hits around .250, but he will hit you 30 home runs and drive in 100 runs. Leaving the friendly confines of Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia might have a small effect on his power, but it shouldn’t be much.
A year after hitting 21 homers and stealing 50 bases, Eric Byrnes played only 52 games and was pretty awful even in those games. He hit just six homers, stole only four bases, and was ravaged by hamstring injuries.
He hasn’t started playing spring games yet, but IF he is able to stay healthy, you could have a steal. However, this is far too soon to take that sort of risk.
Round 14
Xavier Nady has improved throughout his career, and was great when he went to New York. He will be the starting right fielder for the Yankees, and I don’t see any reason that he won’t repeat last year’s stats of .305 average, with 25 homers and 97 RBI. A good pick at this point of the draft.
Round 16
Jeremy Hermida has all the tools to be a fantasy star, but just has been unable to play a full season. He did play 142 games in 2008, but he was still disappointing with a .249 average and 17 homers. He is off to a great start this spring with three bombs already, but he is a risky pick at best at this point of his career.
Nick Swisher doesn’t appear to have a full time job with the Yankees this year so there is no reason to take him here. He also had the lowest batting average of his career in 2008 at just .219. He will give you 20+ home runs if he had a regular job, so if he gets dealt he is worth keeping an eye on.
The jewel of the trade that sent Erik Bedard to Seattle, Adam Jones has future star written all over him. He’s a great combination of speed and power, but he has yet to realize that potential.
Jones has said that he wants to steal 30-40 bases, but if gets to 20/20 you should be happy with his production.
Hideki Matsui has had two injury riddled seasons out of the last three, and at age 35 those injuries are really starting to have an effect. Matsui will be mostly relegated to the DH role, but will still be outfield eligible. There are plenty of players that have a much better chance of having a good season than Matsui.
Round 18
In his first full season in the outfield, Rick Ankiel hit 25 homers and drove in 71 runs. A sports hernia cost him the end of the season, and injuries appear to be the only thing that can keep him from hitting 30 homers and drive in 100 runs.
His batting average will never be above .275, but he gives you enough in the other categories to make selecting him worth it, especially in the 18th round.
Denard Span had a good last two months of the season with five homers and 13 stolen bases, but I’m not sure that he will be able to repeat that performance. Before 2008, he never really showed many signs of this coming, but at age 25 there is still room for improvement.
If you could possibly steal Justin Upton at this point of the draft it would be a major win for you. He won’t be 22 until August so there might be some growing pains still this year, but the kid has undeniable talent and has 30/30 written all over him.
There is still some risk in putting too much of your team’s hope in the younger Upton, but if 2009 is the year he puts it all together this will be the pick of the draft.
Round 19
A former Astros prospect, Luke Scott has improved in each season with increasing playing time. Scott should get a full complement of at-bats in 2009, and given his minor league statistics, it is possible that he could improve on his 23 homers and 65 RBI from a season ago.
His average has been consistently in the .250s, and don’t expect that to go up much.
Round 20
Ryan Church was off to an amazing start last year before concussions put him on the shelf for an extended period of time. He should be the starting right fielder of the Mets, regardless of what manager Jerry Manuel might be saying in the media. He has the potential to hit .275 and 25-30 homers if he is able to stay on the field all season.
Fred Lewis is a popular pick because of his potential to hit .285 and steal 30-35 bases. Lewis will be the starting left fielder for the Giants, and is a good bet to reach those numbers. He might even throw in a dozen home runs and 50 RBI to go with it.
Cameron Maybin is one of the brighter future stars of the major leagues. He strikes out too much, but he has the capabilities of hitting 20-25 home runs and stealing 30-40 bases when he does put it all together.
He will turn 22 just as the season starts, so this year might not be the year he lives up to expectations, but at this point in the draft taking a shot on potential is worth it.
Shin-Soo Choo had a nice minor league career, but he finished the season better than perhaps everyone. In August and September the guy hit 10 home runs with a ridiculous 41 RBI. He hit .400 for the month of September.
He had a roller coaster season as he hit just .222 in July, so there are some question marks. But if you can wait until this part of the draft, I am definitely buying.
Later Rounds or others worth considering
Travis Snider (TOR); Elijah Dukes (WAS); Coco Crisp (KC); Delmon Young (MIN); Jeff Francouer (ATL); Carlos Gomez (MIN); J.D. Drew (BOS); Ryan Spilborghs (COL); Mike Cameron (MIL); Adam Lind (TOR); Garret Anderson (ATL); Randy Winn (SF); Jose Guillen (KC); Josh Willingham (WAS); Jason Kubel (MIN); David Murphy (TEX); Jack Cust (OAK); Colby Rasmus (STL); Andruw Jones? (TEX); Chris Dickerson (CIN); Chase Headley (SD); Skip Schumaker (STL); Daniel Murphy (NYM); Matt Joyce (TB); Matt LaPorta (CLE); Juan Rivera (LAA).
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