Desperate for an option over the final few days of the season? It’s certainly worth looking under the radar, especially for those in deeper formats.
I don’t think you can get much further under the radar than Mets outfielder Lucas Duda, who has silently emerged as a viable option.
After starting off his Major League career at 1-for-33, Duda has actually been pretty good since; starting on September 16, he has gone 10-for-24 with two HR, nine RBI, and five R (excluding his numbers in yesterday’s doubleheader, where he homered again).
With the Mets out of contention and suffering from injuries (Jason Bay and Carlos Beltran are out), the team has no reason not to see exactly what they may have.
There’s certainly reason to believe that they may have a player, not just based on his recent success, but from his minor league numbers this season (splitting time between Double and Triple-A):
425 At-Bats
.304 Batting Average (129 Hits)
23 Home Runs
87 RBI
74 Runs
One Stolen Base
.398 On-Base Percentage
.569 Slugging Percentage
.333 Batting Average on Balls in Play
The power is modest, but when you couple it with his additional 42 extra base hits (40 doubles and two triples), you know that there is plenty of potential there. He posted a 43.1 percent fly-ball rate this season and has a minor league career mark of 44.3 percent. That’s not far off from his 39.5 percent mark since his recall (through Tuesday) and makes you believe that he could be a 25-plus HR hitter, if not a little bit more.
The average, also, is not that unrealistic. I’m not sure he’s going to be a .300 hitter, but his minor league peripherals lead us to believe that he has a good eye at the plate. This season he posted a 19.8 percent strikeout rate vs. a 12.4 percent walk rate.
He hasn’t matched those numbers in the Majors, with a 26.3 percent strikeout rate and a 9.2 percent walk rate, but it is a smaller sample size. In fact, in the 24 AB during his hot streak, he has struck out just five times (he struck out 10 times prior to that).
Let’s just say that he could be a .280-plus hitter, and with his slow start he certainly could be in line for a continued hot stretch. They say baseball is a game of averages, so with time things should even out (though there’s not enough time this season).
We will talk about him in more depth during the offseason, especially if it appears he’s going to be a regular for the Mets—at this point, that’s a big question. That’s not an issue for the remainder of 2010. You have a player who has been hot, has some pop, and should continue to play the rest of the season.
In deeper formats, what more can you ask for?
If you are in need of a fill-in over the last few days of the season, he’s certainly worth considering.
What are your thoughts on Duda? Could he have value over the final few days? Would you consider using him?
Make sure to check out some of our other recent waiver wire articles:
- Looking for speed over the final week
- Could Scott Sizemore be worth using?
- Should Owners Spot Start Pitchers Against the Diamondbacks?
- Is Melvin Mora worth using?
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