The second overall selection in the 2009 draft, Dustin Ackley, made his professional debut in 2010, making quick work of the minor leagues. He split time between Double- and Triple-A, posting the following line:
- 501 At Bats
- .267 Batting Average (134 Hits)
- Seven Home Runs
- 51 RBI
- 79 Runs
- 10 Stolen Bases
- .368 On Base Percentage
- .407 Slugging Percentage
- .306 Batting Average on Balls in Play
The statistics were solid, though not spectacular in any sense of the word. Considered potentially “the best pure hitter in the college ranks, if not the entire draft class” by mlb.com heading into the draft, he clearly failed to live up to the billing in 2010.
While he did show a good eye at the play, posting a 13.02 percent walk rate compared to a 15.77 percent strikeout rate, the overall average just wasn’t there at either level that he played at:
- Double-A (289 AB) – .263
- Triple-A (212 AB) – .274
It certainly is concerning, though a slow start to the season (he was hitting .139 through May 3) was a big culprit. Baseball America, who recently ranked him as the Mariners best prospect heading into 2011, noted that in the two months that followed, he hit .301. They also gave us more hope, saying:
“He’s extremely patient at the plate, recognizes pitches well and isn’t afraid to wait for the pitch he wants or to hit with two strikes. He can sometimes pull off pitches, but he gets his bat on plane with the ball extremely quickly and his barrel stays in the hitting zone for a long time. His picturesque swing and uncanny hand-eye coordination produce excellent plate coverage. Ackley is mostly a gap hitter now, but he can drive the ball to all fields and occasionally shows nice loft.”
He certainly lived up to the potential in the Arizona Fall League, where he hit .424 in 66 AB, walking 26 times vs. just 11 walks. Obviously it is a small sample size, but it certainly helps to alleviate a few of our concerns.
While he hit four home runs in the AFL, it is not something that we should expect him to be able to continue. Power was the one question coming out of the draft and it is possible that he only develops into a 15-20 HR hitter, max. Still, at a weaker position, if he is capable of posting an elite average it is more than enough to make us happy.
At 23 years old, he will likely open the season back at Triple-A, but it is not going to be long before he reaches Seattle. Chone Figgins, who played 2B in 2010, will be shifted back to 3B after the trade of Jose Lopez. That leaves Brendan Ryan (.223, two HR, 11 SB in ’10) and Josh Wilson (.227, 2 HR, 5 SB in ’10) as the options to open the season at 2B.
In fact, a hot spring could land Ackley the Opening Day job, but that doesn’t appear likely at this point. Like most teams, the Mariners will likely keep him down in the minors for a few weeks early on, to avoid his arbitration clock from starting a year early.
He’s not going to be one of the elite options, especially considering he doesn’t have significant upside in the HR or SB departments at this point in his career. However, in leagues that require middle infielders he will absolutely have value. Late in your draft if you want to take a high upside flier, you certainly can do a whole lot worse.
What are your thoughts of Ackley? How good will he be? Is he someone you would want to own in 2011?
**** Make sure to pre-order your copy of the Rotoprofessor 2011 Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide, selling for just $5, by clicking here. ****
Make sure to check out our other Prospect Reports as we wrap up 2010 and head towards 2011:
- Archer, Chris
- Britton, Zach
- Iglesias, Jose
- Kipnis, Jason
- Lawrie, Brett
- Mesoraco, Devin
- Pineda, Michael
- Ramos, Wilson
- Revere, Ben
- Taylor, Michael
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