MLB Opening day is almost here and fantasy baseball fever is running wild for fantasy owners all over the world.
There are plenty of players people love to talk about such as: Alex Rodriguez, Albert Pujols, Ryan Braun, etc.
People tend to forgot about players coming back from injury-plagued years or poor production years. There are also players that people go crazy for, who have only had one great year.
These are the sleepers and busts that owners need to know about for the upcoming season.
Here is the list:
Catcher
Sleeper:
Miguel Montero (AZ) Montero exploded on to the fantasy in 2009 by hitting .316 in the second-half with 11 hrs and 40 RBIs. He expects to hold down the starting job in 2010. He hits in an improved Diamondbacks lineup and as long as he gets the at-bats, he should be a top-five catcher that you can get later in the draft.
Bust:
Bengie Molina (SF) Molina is still one of the most consistent catchers in the league, but he is on the wrong side of 35-years-old and they have a top catching prospect in Buster Posey. Molina could either lose at-bats or get traded if the Giants are not contending by mid-season. He's also hitting in a very weak lineup in San Francisco.
First Base
Sleeper:
Lance Berkman (HOU) Sure he is starting the year on the DL, but he may only miss most of April. Berkman can still rake and when he comes back, he will still mash in the middle of a solid top of the order lineup. He is being taken low in drafts due to this injury that he has become a sleeper.
Bust:
David Ortiz (BOS) Ortiz is clearly in the decline, despite improving in the second-half of 2009. The Red Sox may platoon him since he has been so bad against lefties. I would stay away from him and let him be somebody else's problem this year.
Second Base
Sleeper:
Rickie Weeks (MIL) Weeks tore it up in spring training with a .333 AVG, two HR, three SB and a .446 OBP. Weeks is primed for a big year as long as he stays healthy (for once). I'd take the chance on this young stud in the later rounds.
Bust:
Brian Roberts (BAL) Roberts has been declining in recent years despite putting up solid numbers. Now injuries are starting to catch up to him. He was already injured during spring training with an ailing back. He will be 33 in October so don't expect him to steal 30 bases again. I wouldn't take him in the top 10 rounds where he usually goes in drafts.
Third Base
Sleeper:
Ian Stewart (COL) Stewart has always had potential, but has never put it together for a full season. This year he will get full time at-bats and he will have a break-out year. Expect 30+ homers, close to 100 RBIs and a .260 AVG. You can get him late in drafts because people are afraid of his average, but you shouldn't be.
Bust:
Chipper Jones (ATL) Chipper's been on the decline since he got injured during 2008 when he boasted a .364 AVG. Last year was his worst season in years and it's only a matter of time until he gets injured again. He has also said he'd consider retiring after this year, so I would not touch him in drafts. Let somebody else take him and if you miss out on the top third-basemen, take a flier on a guy like Ian Stewart, Adrian Beltre or Jorge Cantu.
Shortstop
Sleeper:
Stephen Drew (AZ) This position is so deep it boggles my mind why people take a shortstop after guys like Hanley Ramirez, Troy Tulowitzki, Derek Jeter or Ben Zobrist are gone. Drew is a great post-hype player to take a chance on. He had a miserable 2009, but he should definitely improve in 2010. People forget he's only 27-years old and is batting lead-off or second for a much improved Diamondbacks lineup. He may even improve on his break-out 2008 season. Watch out for Drew in 2010.
Bust:
Jason Bartlett (TB) Bartlett had a career season in 2009, but since he has never come close to those numbers in any other season, it looks like a fluke. He also wore down in the second-half with a .232 AVG in September. Instead of taking a guy like Bartlett, take a chance on a younger, up and coming shortstop like Alcides Escobar or even J.J. Hardy and Stephen Drew. The position is so deep there is no need to take a guy like Bartlett, praying that 2009 wasn't a fluke.
Outfield
Sleeper:
Carlos Quentin (CWS) People forget this guy was an AL MVP candidate two years ago. He had an injury-plagued 2009, but looks to be over his injury woes and will improve drastically on his miserable 2009. The White Sox have a much improved lineup this year with the acquisition of Juan Pierre at the top of the order. Quentin will have a monster 2010 and you can get him after the tenth round.
Bust:
Ichiro Suzuki (SEA) Ichiro is one the best players in baseball, but he is not that valuable for fantasy. He doesn't do anything particularly well other than get you a high batting average, runs, and stolen bases. The Mariners lineup doesn't look much better than it did in 2009 so why take a guy like Ichiro when Juan Pierre can put up similar production in the last few rounds of the draft.
Starting pitchers
Sleeper:
Francisco Liriano (MIN) Liriano had such an awful 2009 that he ended up in the bullpen, but with his success in the winter league and in spring training he looks like the ace that emerged in 2006. He's the number five starter in the rotation and is looking to have his true break-out season since his incredible 2006. Grab him late and you'll be happy with the results.
Bust:
John Lackey (BOS) Lackey has moved from the AL West to the toughest division in baseball, the AL East. Lackey hasn't stayed healthy the past two years and turns 32 in October. I don't see Lackey improving much on his 3.75 ERA in 2008 and 3.83 ERA in 2009, especially in the AL East. Pitchers like Brett Anderson, Kevin Slowey and Rick Porcello are all better picks that you can get later than where Lackey is going.
Closers
Sleeper:
Chad Qualls (AZ) Qualls had a break out 2009 until he got injured. He still posted 24 SV, 45 SO and 7 BB. He will close full time this year and should have a big year unless he gets traded if the Diamondbacks struggle. Grab him with confidence late in the draft.
Bust:
Brian Fuentes (LAA) Fuentes has a very short leash this year after the Angels signed Fernando Rodney, wary about his 4.81 ERA in the second-half of 2009. I would not touch Fuentes where he is going, which is in the top 10 rounds in the draft.
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