It is not that I don’t like these outfielders; it’s just that I feel like their ADPs (courtesy of Mock Draft Central) have them going a little bit earlier than I’d prefer to call their names:
Josh Hamilton – Texas Rangers
I know many people are going nuts for Hamilton—and rightfully so. He’s coming off a season where he hit .359 with 32 HR, 100 RBI and 95 R. So why exactly am I saying that I wouldn’t draft him at his current ADP of 14.13 (according to Mock Draft Central)? The answer is two-fold:
First of all is his injury history. Even during his monster 2010 campaign, he was held to just 518 AB. The only season he’s had more AB than that was in 2008 when he had 624 AB. If I am going to take a player that early, I at least want to feel comfortable that I am going to get some sort of payoff from him. If it is almost a foregone conclusion that he is going to miss time, it’s rough selecting him this early.
Of course, if you can lock him down to match his ‘10 production, it would still be worth it. Unfortunately, that brings us to point No. 2: there is a good chance that he regresses. Keep in mind that he benefitted from a .390 BABIP, a number that there is little chance of him repeating. A fall there is going to bring his numbers down in general, so be cautious. Remember, it won’t be just his average that is affected, as fewer hits and less time on base will also impact his RBI and R.
At the spot in the draft he’s going, there is no chance that I end up with him on any of my teams.
Ichiro Suzuki – Seattle Mariners
This one should not come as a surprise to anyone who has followed Rotoprofessor the past few seasons. With a current ADP of 32.11, it certainly feels like he is being drafted for name recognition and nothing more.
Yes, he still brings the ability to hit over .300 and steal around 40 bases, but is that really enough to justify a third round selection? When he was at his best, Suzuki was a lock to score 110+ runs, helping to give you an advantage in three offensive categories. With the Mariners offense falling off a cliff, he has fallen to pedestrian totals of 88 and 74 the past two seasons.
Now, helping you in just two out of five categories, the appeal of Suzuki has to have fallen greatly. He just doesn’t offer the upside to select this early on draft day.
Jayson Werth – Washington Nationals
If he hadn’t bolted from Philadelphia, I would feel a lot more comfortable drafting him at his current ADP of 50.22. However, without the protection of having Chase Utley and Ryan Howard joining him in the lineup, as well as playing in the comfy confines of Citizen’s Bank Ballpark, I am a little bit skeptical.
The home ballpark is the much more concerning issue, as it’s not like the Nationals lineup is void of talent (Ryan Zimmerman, etc.). However, just look at his home/road split from 2010:
- Home – .327, 18 HR, 51 RBI
- Road – .266, 9 HR, 34 RBI
That has to bring questions about his production potential, and it’s more than enough to keep me away from him unless he were to fall significantly.
B.J. Upton – Tampa Bay Rays
His current ADP of 67.51 just screams that people are closing their eyes and hoping he finally lives up to the hype, doesn’t it? That really is the only thing that makes sense, considering he is being drafted before high upside players like Jay Bruce, Hunter Pence and Colby Rasmus.
He has a long enough track record at this point that says he’s a source of SB and possibly nothing more. Over the past two seasons, he’s hit .241 and .237. Over the past three years, he has hit a total of 38 HR. He’s never scored more than 89 R or had more than 82 RBI.
Yes, there is potential, but he has not shown me close to enough to justify picking him this early. I’d much rather take one of the other three outfielders I named, who have shown more potential in recent years.
Torii Hunter – Los Angeles Angels
He has an ADP of 95.74. Really? This one just baffles me, honestly. Do we think its 2006?
He’s a nice player, but what exactly does he bring to the table? He brings some power (low 20s), a decent average (career .280 hitter), some runs and some RBI. The fact that he’s now 35 years old and stole just nine bases in 2010 should tip us off on something, shouldn’t it?
To me, he’s a fringe option in shallower formats, not bringing anything “special” to the table. Yet, he’s the 23rd outfielder coming off the board. Really?
Two bonus choices:
- Alfonso Soriano – Chicago Cubs – He’s a shell of his former self, yet he has an ADP of 98.24. Don’t draft him on name value alone.
- Grady Sizemore – Cleveland Indians – He’s a huge injury concern, and there is no way of knowing exactly what he is going to bring to the table. The unknown makes it impossible to select him in the first 10 rounds, yet he has an ADP of 99.43
What are your thoughts on these players? Would you draft them at their current ADP? Why or why not?
**** Make sure to order your copy of the Rotoprofessor 2011 Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide, selling for just $5, by clicking here. ****
Make sure to check out our 2011 rankings:
- Top 15 Catchers
- Top 15 First Basemen
- Top 15 Second Basemen
- Top 15 Third Basemen
- Top 15 Shortstops
- Top 30 Outfielders
- Top 30 Starting Pitchers
- Top 15 Closers
THIS ARTICLE IS ALSO FEATURED ON WWW.ROTOPROFESSOR.COM
Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com
- Login to post comments