Fantasy Baseball Top 30 Starting Pitchers For 2011

There has been some significant movement in our starting pitcher rankings since we originally checked in on them. 

The most glaring change was due to Zack Greinke’s trade to the Brewers, but that’s certainly not all. Let’s take a look at how things currently look:

1. Roy Halladay – Philadelphia Phillies
2. Felix Hernandez – Seattle Mariners
3. Tim Lincecum – San Francisco Giants
4. Jon Lester – Boston Red Sox
5. Adam Wainwright – St. Louis Cardinals
6. CC Sabathia – New York Yankees
7. Cliff Lee – Philadelphia Phillies
8. Clayton Kershaw – Los Angeles Dodgers
9. Zack Greinke – Milwaukee Brewers
10. Jered Weaver – Los Angeles Angels
11. Justin Verlander – Detroit Tigers
12. Ubaldo Jimenez – Colorado Rockies
13. Josh Johnson – Florida Marlins
14. Francisco Liriano – Minnesota Twins
15. Chris Carpenter – St. Louis Cardinals
16. Yovani Gallardo – Milwaukee Brewers
17. Cole Hamels – Philadelphia Phillies
18. Clay Buchholz – Boston Red Sox
19. Mat Latos – San Diego Padres
20. Tommy Hanson – Atlanta Braves
21. Dan Haren – Los Angeles Angels
22. Roy Oswalt – Philadelphia Phillies
23. Colby Lewis – Texas Rangers
24. David Price – Tampa Bay Rays
25. Ricky Nolasco – Florida Marlins
26. Brett Anderson – Oakland Athletics
27. Matt Cain – San Francisco Giants
28. Max Scherzer – Detroit Tigers
29. Matt Garza – Tampa Bay Rays
30. Josh Beckett – Boston Red Sox

Thoughts:

• I know seeing Colby Lewis over David Price seems odd, but I took a detailed look into why I prefer him earlier this week.  Check it out by clicking here.
• Some people are going to be higher than I am on Matt Cain.  I fear a regression in his BABIP (.260) and control (2.46 BB/9 compared to a 3.37 career BB/9), meaning a rather sizable jump in his WHIP (1.08) could be in store for him.  Yes, he has improved his control for three straight years, but sooner or later, the trend is going to stop.  It’s not to say that he’s a bad option, I just prefer the other options more.  I’ll be taking a look at my projection for Cain in the near future.
• Since the last time we looked at the rankings Zack Greinke has been dealt to the Milwaukee Brewers, significantly helping his value.  You have to think that he’ll have a higher win upside, while also potentially seeing a bump in strikeouts and a decrease in ERA and WHIP thanks to leaving the DH behind (and facing generally easier lineups).  The former Cy Young Award winner was a Top 20 option prior to the deal but now cracks the Top 10.  For more on the deal, click here. 
• Adam Wainwright or CC Sabathia?  It’s virtually a coin flip and, despite pitching for the Yankees, Sabathia does call the harder division home.  When pitchers are as close as they are, I’d generally side with the NL option.
• Josh Beckett’s inclusion may be a bit of a surprise, given how poorly he pitched in 2010.  However, he struggled with luck (.349 BABIP) and we all know how good he has the potential to be.  It wouldn’t be a surprise to see him perform like a Top 15 pitcher at year’s end, would it?  (For more on his 2010 struggles, click here)
• I know some people want to consider Felix Hernandez the top starting pitcher in the league, but I just can’t do it.  Halladay has an edge in both wins and WHIP, while the two will likely be close in the ERA department.  While Hernandez may strike out a few more, is it enough to overcome Halladay’s other advantages?  I don’t think so.  (For a more detailed comparison, click here)
• I know people are worried about Latos’ workload in 2010, but any pitcher carries a bit of a risk with him.  No one knows for sure how his body will respond, as it’s the same question we’ve had with Tim Lincecum since he entered the league (and how has that turned out?).  With his strikeout rate (9.21 K/9 in ’10 vs. 10.55 over his minor league career), control (2.44 B/9 in ’10 vs. 2.30 over his minor league career) and the benefit of pitching in Petco Park, you have to like his potential to excel once again.
• Josh Johnson certainly is one of the best starting pitcher options in the league, but he falls just short of the Top 12 for me.  Don’t overlook the fact that he benefited from a 79.2% strand rate and increased his strikeout rate be nearly one K per nine innings (8.22 vs. 9.11).  I know he’s certainly improved since his minor league days, but his K/9 coming up was just 7.41.  There’s a good chance he regresses there, which certainly will hurt his potential value.  I wouldn’t suggest a return to his minor league numbers, but potentially back to the low-to-mid 8.0 range.

What are your thoughts on the rankings?  Whose too high?  Whose too low?

**** Make sure to pre-order your copy of the Rotoprofessor 2011 Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide, selling for just $5, by clicking here. ****

Make sure to check out our 2011 rankings:

• Top 15 Catchers
• Top 15 First Basemen
• Top 15 Third Basemen
• Top 15 Shortstops
• Top 30 Outfielders
• Top 20 Starting Pitchers
• Top 15 Closers
• 2011 Fantasy Draft First Round Breakdown

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