Fantasy Baseball: Top 35 Outfielders For 2011, An Extremely Early Look

Outfield has become a surprisingly unpredictable position to rank for 2011.  There are numerous players who have underperformed, overperformed or missed significant time with injuries.  This list, more then any of the others we’ve done, is unstable.  Consider players in the same area fairly interchangeable, as values will change dramatically depending on second half production.

With that said, let’s take a look at how things currently look heading into next season for those of us who are rebuilding (remember, these can, and probably will, change dramatically by the end of the season):

1. Ryan Braun—Milwaukee Brewers
2. Matt Kemp—Los Angeles Dodgers
3. Matt Holliday—St. Louis Cardinals
4. Carl Crawford—Tampa Bay Rays
5. Andre Ethier—Los Angeles Dodgers
6. Josh Hamilton—Texas Rangers
7. Justin Upton—Arizona Diamondbacks
8. Nelson Cruz—Texas Rangers
9. Alex Rios—Chicago White Sox
10. Carlos Gonzalez—Colorado Rockies
11. Jason Heyward—Atlanta Braves
12. Jason Bay—New York Mets
13. Andrew McCutchen—Pittsburgh Pirates
14. Shin-Soo Choo—Cleveland Indians
15. Jayson Werth—Philadelphia Phillies
16. Carlos Beltran—New York Mets
17. Ben Zobrist—Tampa Bay Rays
18. Ichiro Suzuki—Seattle Mariners
19. Adam Jones—Baltimore Orioles
20. Vladimir Guerrero—Texas Rangers
21. Adam Dunn—Washington Nationals
22. Grady Sizemore—Cleveland Indians
23. Jacoby Ellsbury—Boston Red Sox
24. Hunter Pence—Houston Astros
25. Jay Bruce—Cincinnati Reds
26. Colby Rasmus—St. Louis Cardinals
27. Nick Markakis—Baltimore Orioles
28. Denard Span—Minnesota Twins
29. Carlos Quentin—Chicago White Sox
30. Mike Stanton—Florida Marlins
31. Chris Young—Arizona Diamondbacks
32. Shane Victorino—Philadelphia Phillies
33. Corey Hart—Milwaukee Brewers
34. Curtis Granderson—New York Yankees
35. B.J. Upton—Tampa Bay Rays

Thoughts:

• For how unpredictable the outfield position has been in 2010, it’s amazing that the top four remain constant.  Those are the elite of the position and that doesn’t appear likely to change.  After that, however, the field is wide open and will likely change dramatically over the next few weeks and months.
• I know Jason Bay has not lived up to expectations, but it’s not like he has been awful either.  Given his track record, a bad three months isn’t enough to drop him outside of the Top 12.  If the power doesn’t return in the second half, however, he will quickly plummet down the rankings.
• If Nelson Cruz could ever remain healthy for an entire season, he’d likely be a Top Five option.  Unfortunately, we have still yet to see that happen.  Still, he’s proven that even with missing a little bit of time, he’s one of the best the position has to offer.
• For as good as Vladimir Guerrero has been, does anyone really believe that he can keep it going for the rest of the second half, or even into 2011?  Still, with his first half resurgence, he has to be viewed as a No. 2 outfielder (assuming he has eligibility in your league).
• Despite the injury that now has him on the sidelines, Shin Soo-Choo proved that he has the potential to go 20/20 every season and sooner or later, could develop into a 30/30 threat.  That makes him one of the better options in all formats.
• Jayson Werth is likely to change teams, so depending on where he lands we’ll have to adjust his value, either up or down.
• I’m a big believer in Nick Markakis, but yet again he appears to have failed to take that next step forward.  There’s still time, but at this point it appears impossible to consider him a Top 15 outfielder for next season.  As a low-end No. 2 option, maybe, but nothing more than that.
• Does anyone really believe that Adam Lind is this bad?  He’s got to turn it around sooner or later and will likely rebuild his value for 2011.  I’m not giving up on him yet and I see him as a great buy low candidate for the second half (you can view my five second half buy low candidates by clicking here ).
• Grady Sizemore and Carlos Beltran are both extremely tough players to rank at this point, given the injuries that have plagued them as of late.  At least we’ll get a good idea if Beltran will be able to return to the player he once was in the second half.  With Sizemore, it’s all a matter on if you believe he can rebound or not.
• Domonic Brown has the potential to crack this list, if he makes an impact before year’s end.  For more on him, check out my recent Prospect Report by clicking here . 
• Mike Stanton’s early struggles have suppressed his potential value, but you can see the power starting to come around.  He certainly has the potential to fly up these rankings if he proves his power will translate to the Major Leagues.

What are your thoughts on these rankings?  Who is being overvalued?  Who is being undervalued?

Make sure to check out our other extremely early 2011 rankings:

• Catchers
• First Basemen
• Second Basemen
• Shortstops
• Third Basemen
• Closers

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