The Nationals’ Mike Morse has become an intriguing source of power for fantasy owners. With eligibility at first base and the outfield, his value is certainly diminished, given the depth of other options, but looking at the numbers there’s certainly a chance he is usable (statistics are through Monday):
213 AB, .296 AVG (63 Hits), 10 HR, 30 RBI, 29 Runs, 0 SB, .343 OBP, .502 SLG, .340 BABIP
His OBP is a number that jumps out at you. He has posted a walk rate of just 6.1 percent, while striking out 22.5 percent of the time.
Drafted in the third round of the 2000 draft, Morse has played all over the diamond in a lengthy minor league career. In 2,695 AB he posted a walk rate of 6.9 percent and a strikeout rate of 19.6 percent. In other words, the rates he has shown this year are highly believable. That certainly doesn’t bode well for him likely replicating a usable average moving forward.
Of course, if he could hit for an excessive amount of power, then perhaps, but there are questions there as well. He had only 66 career minor league home runs, never hitting more than 17 in a season prior to 2009 (when he hit 16 in the minor leagues and three for the Nationals).
Thus far he’s posted a HR/FB of 16.1 percent, which wouldn’t necessarily be unbelievable if it weren’t for his history. It’s tough to say that he hasn’t given us enough of a sample size to know what he is, either. With that many at-bats and so few home runs, it’s hard to argue with.
He’s 28 years old, so he’s not a 22 year old who may be just finding himself in the game of baseball. We know what Morse is (barring a huge swing similar to Jose Bautista’s), so he's not likely to be a 30 HR hitter.
You couple the likely decline in power (which we may already be seeing as he has gone 13 straight games without a home run) with a potential problem in the average department and there’s a lot not to like. Depending on your format he could have value, but there are likely to be better options available to you.
Leave him on the waiver wire at this point.
What are your thoughts on Morse? Is he viable for the rest of 2010? Would you pass on him?
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