Fantasy Focus: Will Roy Oswalt Join the St. Louis Cardinals?

As a fantasy baseball fan, I pay close attention to the rapidly approaching trade deadline.

For instance, I was thrilled to see Cliff Lee move to Texas, home of the long-ball, since I didn't draft him on any teams this year. Indeed, most trades have some fantasy impact, but there is a pending trade that has the potential to make a major impact—both in fantasy and reality.

In an attempt to shore up their rotation and make a strong push to win the World Series this year, the St. Louis Cardinals have been actively pursuing Roy Oswalt.

Oswalt is having a fantastic year with six wins, 117 K's in 124 IP, a 3.12 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, and a .220 BAA on a terrible Houston team.

Oswalt is getting along in years, and he realizes that his chances of winning a World Series with this Houston team are practically non-existent. However, winning a World Series with the St. Louis Cardinals is a strong possibility.

From a fantasy perspective, Oswalt has been very good this year, but the losses have taken what should be a career year and transformed it into merely a good overall 2010 campaign. A trade to the St. Louis Cardinals can make a monumental difference in his 2nd half stats, and here's how.

St. Louis boasts one of the strongest offenses in the league, and this translates into run support for their starting pitchers.

Here's the run support (runs per game) for the St. Louis Cardinals top 3 pitchers:

Adam Wainwright—6.51

Jaime Garcia—6.95

Chris Carpenter—6.73

Oswalt's run support is 3.27 runs per start in Houston. The difference between the average run support of St. Louis' top three starters (6.73) and Oswalt in Houston is 3.46. Theoretically, Oswalt would receive an extra 3.46 runs per start in St. Louis.

In all of the losses or no-decisions that Oswalt has had this year, he has given up an average of 2.85 runs per start. If we subtract the run differential and the average runs that he gave up per contest, Oswalt would have picked up several more wins in the first half.

If Oswalt joins the Cardinals for the rest of the second half he should sport the same strong numbers. But with the increase in run support and the improved supporting cast, expect his win totals to climb by four wins. 

For those of us that drafted Oswalt in several leagues, we can only hope that this trade happens in the near future.

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