Throughout the years Lance Berkman has proven time and time again that he was a great option for fantasy owners. A career .299 hitter, he hasn’t hit below .278 since getting a full-time job in 2000. He’s shown the ability to hit 45 HR, but has consistently been in the 25-35 range. He’s a perennial threat to eclipse the 100 RBI/100 R plateaus.
Yet, in 2009, things have fallen flat for him, at least partially. He’s posted a line of (through Thursday):
238 At-Bats
.248 Batting Average (59 Hits)
16 Home Runs
42 RBI
35 Runs
4 Stolen Bases
.377 On Base Percentage
.508 Slugging Percentage
.250 Batting Average on Balls in Play
The average is the number that jumps out at you first and foremost. He is way too good of a hitter to be hitting to such a low average, and it is obvious that some bad luck is clearly playing a factor in his struggles. Since 2000, he has never posted a BABIP of less than .303.
His strikeouts are right in line with what he has done throughout his career. For his career, he’s struck out 19.9 percent of the time versus his 21.0 percent in 2009. That’s not a difference that is going to have a significant impact on his average.
As we’ve discussed before, if you are looking for a boost in average, he’s the perfect player to try to add.
The real question fantasy owners need to ask themselves is if you think the power is going to be able to continue at it’s current pace. His fly ball rate is up slightly, currently at 41.9 percent.
In 2006 he posted a 41.8 percent mark, the only season since 2002 that he was above 39 percent. It wouldn’t be surprising to see the rate at which he’s hitting balls into the air to decline as the season progresses.
His HR/FB rate is up from last season, but it is right in line from what he did from 2005-2007:
- 2005: 19.0%
- 2006: 24.6%
- 2007: 20.5%
- 2008: 16.6%
- 2009: 20.0%
I’d say that there is no reason to believe he’s going to falloff there. The fly ball percentage decreasing slightly will slow his pace, but not by much. He easily could continue at his current pace and I wouldn’t shy away from him with that fear in mind.
He’s had six seasons of over 100 RBI and five of over 100 R. Throw in two seasons of 95 R and one of 93 RBI, and you know that he’s likely to continue producing there.
Obviously, he’s a player I fully endorse trading for. The power, RBI and R are going to continue with a boost in average. How can you go wrong?
As far as who I would trade to acquire him, the following are players I’ve seen dealt for him, one-for-one, that I would certainly agree with:
- Curtis Granderson (his power comes courtesy of a 51.3% FB%)
- Matt Garza (he’s great, but if you have pitching to spare, this makes sense)
Would you trade these players for Berkman? Who else would you part with to get him? Is Berkman even someone you want?
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