Geovany Soto entered the 2008 season as a player with a ton of upside potential, having made his presence felt in a 2007 cup of coffee (.389, 3 HR in 54 AB). Having lived up to his potential, owners entered 2009 thinking that he was easily a top five catcher in all formats, taking him early in drafts to ensure they got production out of a position that generally doesn’t offer much.
Unfortunately, saying that he fell flat would be an understatement. His season was a disaster, with inability and injury holding him to a line of:
331 At Bats
.218 Batting Average (72 Hits)
11 Home Runs
47 RBI
27 Runs
1 Stolen Bases
.321 On Base Percentage
.381 Slugging Percentage
.251 Batting Average on Balls in Play
From a player who posted a .504 slugging percentage in 2008, it’s easy to see what went wrong, at least in part. The power just wasn’t there, with his slugging percentage regressing to a significantly low number.
What is interesting is that his flyball rate was static, going from 41.4% in 2008 to 41.3% in 2009. His HR/FB rate, which did fall, did not completely disappear, going from 14.7% to 10.3%. While that’s a fall, it’s not a devastating one. He could still put up solid home run totals, even if he did not return to his ‘08 levels.
It’s also not like his strikeouts or walks were significantly off from his solid 2008 campaign:
Strikeouts: 24.5 percent in 2008 vs. 23.3 percent in 2009
Walks: 11.2 percent in 2008 vs. 13.1 percent in 2009
So, where exactly were his problems? I find it hard to simply say that the luck was the sole culprit, but that argument does have some merit. In 2008 he posted a .337 BABIP, which fell all the way to .251 in 2009. Among players with at least 300 AB, that placed him 15th worst in the league.
It is safe to assume a bounce back there, and while he likely isn’t going to return to the .337 mark, even if he is around .300 his overall numbers will be significantly better. The underlying statistics were virtually static, meaning better luck will mean significantly better results.
If his BABIP had been .300 last season (assuming no additional extra base hits), his AVG would have gone to .254 and his SLG would have gone to .417. What if he had matched the .337 mark? He would’ve been at .281 and .444, respectively. I think a fair expectation is falling somewhere in the middle, which certainly are numbers for a catcher that fantasy owners would be happy with.
It is easy for some to say that Soto had been poor prior to 2007, when he came out of no where to post 26 HR prior to his recall. However, there were some significant changes to his approach. All you have to do is look at his Triple-A flyball rates as proof:
2005 - 29.1 percent
2006 - 30.4 percent
2007 - 39.6 percent
He has maintained that flyball rate, even in his struggles, so it’s hard to point to those early years and use them as a basis for anything. He’s a changed player, and the numbers prior to that transformation should be disregarded.
We’ll probably touch on him again later in the offseason, where I’ll give an actual projection, but at this point what needs to be noted is that he is a great pick at the catching position. The power is still there, and getting him at his current ADP (148.10), would be a solid selection thanks to his potential.
He’s a player to target in all formats in my book, especially if he slips down to the 14th or 15th round, but what about you? Am I simplifying his struggles? Do you not expect him to fully bounce back in 2010?
THIS ARTICLE IS ALSO FEATURED ON WWW.ROTOPROFESSOR.COM
Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com
- Login to post comments