The Red Sox slipped only a little in 2008, reaching game seven of the ALCS after entering the year as defending World Series Champions. But even if the Sox hold their ground again in 2009, others appear to have gained on them.
Though Boston returns virtually the entire roster from a team that has been the class of the AL over the last two years, it failed in its pursuit of No. 1 offseason target Mark Teixeira, who signed with the rival Yankees.
Nonetheless, Boston still looks like a contender in 2009, thanks largely to a solid nucleus and productive farm system that has provided good balance and depth throughout the organization.
Rotation
Assuming Josh Beckett remains in good health, Boston boasts a young and deep group of starting pitchers. Beckett, who was bothered by nagging injuries throughout last year, will be backed by Jon Lester, Diasuke Matsuzaka and Tim Wakefield.
The Red Sox agreed to terms with righthanders Brad Penny and John Smoltz to add some veteran depth. Smoltz is battling back from shoulder surgery last summer; the Sox might not have his services until June.
The team still has prospects Clay Buchholz and Michael Bowden, among others, and righthander Justin Masterson could also start. Thanks largely to the emergence of Lester, Red Sox starters finished last season with a 4.02 ERA that was third-best in the AL. This remains the strength of the club.
Bullpen
Beyond closer Jonathan Papelbon, manager Terry Francona experienced some difficulty from his relievers during the first half of last season. That all changed when Masterson joined the group. In the final two months, with Masterson serving as a primary setup man for Papelbon, the Boston bullpen stabilized and pitched quite well.
During the offseason, the Sox further fortified the relief corps by adding right-handers Takashi Saito and Ramon Ramirez. They join the group that also incudes right-hander Manny Delcarman, as well as lefties Hideki Okajima and Javier Lopez, giving Francona one of the deepest and most balanced bullpens in baseball. At least on paper.
Middle Infield
One year after winning the 2007 AL Rookie of the Year Award, second baseman Dustin Pedroia claimed the AL MVP award. The Sox subsequently signed Pedroia to a six-year, $40.5 million contract with a club option that could keep him with the team through 2015.
For all the stability that Pedroia has given the Red Sox at second base, shortstop remains the major question. Julio Lugo has two years remaining on a four-year, $36 million contract. He essentially missed all of the second half of last year with an injury and was extremely unproductive.
Rookie Jed Lowrie did not make an error in 49 regular season games at shortstop, but he slumped badly at the plate late last year. Shortstop remains one of the few areas where the Sox can still make a significant upgrade.
Corners
The big question concerns the health of third baseman Mike Lowell, who underwent offseason hip surgery and has two years remaining on a three-year, $37.5 million deal. Lowell’s recovery appears to be coming along quite well, but the Sox seemed full prepared to trade him if the had been able to sign Teixeira. Had that happened, third base would’ve belonged to Kevin Youkilis, who has evolved into one of the best corner men in the game.
Despite moving from first to third last year, Youkilis was one of the most productive players in baseball, finishing third in the AL MVP balloting. If Lowell proves to be healthy, the Red Sox are in very good shape at first and third (offensively and defensively). Both Youkilis and Lowell own Gold Gloves.
Outfield
In the recent history of the Boston Red Sox, there is a clear delineation: Before Manny and after Manny. The Sox traded Manny Ramirez last July 31 in the deal that brought Jason Bay to Boston, a trade that had ripple effects throughout the team’s lineup.
Bay performed quite well during his two months in Boston, but the Sox nonetheless chased Teixeira during the winter. Because of the Crisp trade, too, there is no uncertainty with regard to the Boston outfield: Bay will be in left, Jacoby Ellsbury on center, and J.D. Drew in right.
The Sox signed Rocco Baldelli from Tampa Bay to add some depth, given Drew’s injury history and the inconsistency of Ellsbury, who batted .240 during a three-month stretch in the middle of last season. Defensively, this group can cover ground and is quite good.
Catching
For much of the past decade, the Red Sox have benefited from having one of the best two-way catchers in the game in the switch-hitting Jason Varitek. In 2008, however, Varitek’s offense slipped badly, and the Sox dropped to near the bottom of the league in offensive production from their catchers.
Varitek subsequently filed for free agency, leaving the position in a great state of uncertainty. Even though Varitek later re-signed with the Red Sox, the team also signed Josh Bard to a major league contract. The Red Sox explored a number of trade options, too, repeatedly inquiring with the Texas Rangers about Jarrod Saltalamacchia. Unproven minor leaguers Dusty Brown and George Kottaras also remain options.
Designated Hitter / Bench
Losing Ramirez was damaging enough to the Boston lineup, but a wrist injury to David Ortiz also hurt the 2008 club significantly. Ortiz never needed surgery and returned to the team for the final two months, but there is some concern in the Boston organization that Ortiz will never revisit the glory years of 2003-07, when he was one of the most feared hitter in baseball. That fact, too, inspired the pursuit of Teixiera. The Sox bolstered their bench in January by adding Rocco Baldelli and re-signing Mark Kotsay.
Management
Over the last several years, there have been few management teams as successful and shrewd as the Red Sox. As a big market team, Boston has the resources to spend with the big boys. Nonetheless, the Red Sox have emphasized the draft and player development since GM Theo Epstein took over, and they have built one of the best and most productive farm systems in the game.
Three years after temporarily resigning from his post, Epstein agreed to a contract extension last fall that will keep him in Boston for the foreseeable future. Overall, the Red Sox operation is in very good hands with a talented, young baseball operations staff and committed ownership, which seems to make Boston one of the most stable organizations in the game.
Final Analysis
Red Sox fans are optimistic after their team reached game seve of the ALCS, but here’s the question: If the Sox are so good, why was their management so concerned about improving the offense?
This team is still a contender, to be sure, and the Red Sox have enough talent, youth, experience, pitching and money to make a run at any team in baseball. Still, the lineup looked uncharacteristically soft at the end of last season, and no one should be surprised if the 2009 Sox have difficulty scoring runs.
Tampa Bay is now a legitimate threat and the Yankees have rebuilt their starting rotation, meaning the Red Sox will face improved pitching on a regular basis. If the lineup is indeed weaker, that could put an awful lot of pressure on the pitching staff.
Carter’s Projected Red Sox Lineup:
CF Jacoby Ellsbury
2B Dustin Pedroia
DH David Ortiz
1B Kevin Youkilis
3B Mike Lowell
LF Jason Bay
RF J.D. Drew
SS Jed Lowrie
C Jason Varitek
Bench:
C Josh Bard
C Dusty Brown
IF Julio Lugo
UT Mark Kotsay
OF Rocco Baldelli
Rotation:
RH Josh Beckett
LH Jon Lester
RH Diasuke Matsuzaka
RH Tim Wakefield
RH Brad Penny/ RH John Smoltz
Bullpen:
RH Jonathan Papelbon (Closer)
RH Justin Masterson
LH Hideki Okajima
RH Ramon Ramirez
RH Manny Delcarmen
LH Javier Lopez
RH Takashi Saito
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