My 2009 predictions based on the 2008 season article unleashed a plethora of insults (some community....).
Basically, 2008 was a wild season because of the Rays going from the worst record in baseball in 2007 to the World Series in 2008.
And because the Washington Nationals had the worst record in 2008, the system had them going to the World Series in 2009.
So, I've decided to apply the same system to the year before:
What if the 2009 MLB season pans out like the 2007 season did?
Again—**These predictions based on a system, NOT on my opinion. I do not really believe that this will happen.**
This is merely to show how unpredictable a season is. I've noticed a trend of predictions based mainly on how the teams did the year before. Small intangibles happen over the season and some finish nowhere near where people predicted.
Here's how it worked:
Season Stats:
The system I have developed takes the change in teams overall MLB rank and record from 2006-07 applies to it 2008-09.
- Whatever a team's 2006 overall record rank was recorded (i.e. the Yankees highest, Astros 14th highest, the Rays 30th, etc.).
- Then I compared that same team's rank in overall record in 2007 (i.e. Yankees 3rd highest, Astros 21st, Rays 30th, etc).
2006 Rank
|
2007 Rank
|
|
---|---|---|
Yankees
|
1
|
3
|
Astros
|
14 |
21
|
Rays
|
30
|
30
|
I then took the team with 2007 rank that matched the 2006: For example, the Yankees went from the best to third highest record in 2006-07, so I applied the same to the Angels, who had the best record in 2008, and assigned them third best in 2009.
2008 Rank
|
2009 Rank
|
|
---|---|---|
Angels
|
1
|
3
|
Dodgers
|
14
|
21
|
Nationals
|
30
|
30
|
<!-- my page break -->
2009 Regular Season Predictions
(based on 2006-2007 change in team's record)
The predictions are based solely on this concept. I came up with this completely blind, not looking at the team names, just the rank of overall record. So there is absolutely no bias in the Win-Loss Record. I did have to make some decisions regarding playoff teams by finding similar situations in 2007.
W
|
L
|
PCT
|
|
b-Toronto Blue Jays |
96
|
66
|
.593
|
wc-New York Yankees* |
95
|
68
|
.583
|
Boston Red Sox |
88
|
74
|
.543 |
Tampa Bay Rays |
79
|
83
|
.488
|
Baltimore Orioles |
69
|
93
|
.454
|
W
|
L
|
PCT
|
|
Detroit Tigers |
90
|
72
|
.556
|
Cleveland Indians |
84
|
78
|
.519
|
Minnesota Twins |
83
|
79
|
.513 |
Chicago White Sox |
82
|
80
|
.506
|
Kansas City Royals |
71
|
91
|
.438
|
W
|
L
|
PCT
|
|
Texas Rangers |
96
|
66
|
.593
|
Los Angeles Angels* |
94
|
69
|
.577
|
Oakland Athletics |
88
|
74
|
.488 |
Seattle Mariners |
69
|
93
|
.389
|
*Yankees beat Angels in one-game playoff for wild-card spot (arbitrary decision based on Yankees were the Wild-card winner in 2007 and the best record and wild card came out of the AL East)
W
|
L
|
PCT
|
|
b-New York Mets |
89
|
73
|
.549
|
Atlanta Braves |
83
|
79
|
.512
|
Philadelphia Phillies |
76
|
86
|
.469 |
Florida Marlins |
75
|
87
|
.463
|
Washington Nationals |
66
|
96
|
.407
|
W
|
L
|
PCT
|
|
Cincinnati Reds |
89
|
73
|
.549
|
wc-St. Louis Cardinals |
89
|
73
|
.549
|
Chicago Cubs |
88
|
74
|
.543 |
Houston Astros |
78
|
84
|
.481
|
Milwaukee Brewers |
72
|
90
|
.444
|
Pittsburgh Pirates |
68
|
94
|
.420
|
W
|
L
|
PCT
|
|
San Diego Padres |
85
|
77
|
.525
|
Los Angeles Dodgers |
73
|
89
|
.451
|
San Francisco Giants |
73
|
89
|
.451 |
Arizona Diamondbacks |
72
|
90
|
.444
|
Colorado Rockies |
71
|
91
|
.438
|
b: Best Record, wc: Wild Card winner
(Reds given division because of 06-07 equivalent is the Rockies, while the Cardinals' equivalent are the Mets, who did not make the playoffs in 2007.)
<!-- my page break -->Playoffs:
2007 AL Playoff Team | 2009 AL Equivalent |
---|---|
Red Sox |
Blue Jays |
Indians
|
Rangers
|
Angels
|
Tigers
|
wc-Yankees
|
wc-Yankees
|
2007 NL Playoff Team | 2009 NL Equivalent |
---|---|
Diamondbacks
|
Reds
|
Phillies
|
Mets
|
Cubs
|
Padres
|
wc-Rockies
|
wc-Cardinals
|
Each series results I made exactly the same as the 2007 playoffs:
ALDS
Blue Jays 3-0 over Tigers
Rangers 3-1 over Yankees
NLDS
Reds 3-0 over Padres
Cardinals 3-0 over Mets
LCS
Blue Jays 4-3 over Rangers
Cardinals 4-0 over Reds
World Series
Blue Jays 4-0 over Cardinals
- Login to post comments