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If The 2009 MLB Standings Were Based on the 2007 Season

My 2009 predictions based on the 2008 season article unleashed a plethora of insults (some community....).

Basically, 2008 was a wild season because of the Rays going from the worst record in baseball in 2007 to the World Series in 2008.

And because the Washington Nationals had the worst record in 2008, the system had them going to the World Series in 2009.

So, I've decided to apply the same system to the year before:

What if the 2009 MLB season pans out like the 2007 season did?

Again—**These predictions based on a system, NOT on my opinion. I do not really believe that this will happen.**

This is merely to show how unpredictable a season is. I've noticed a trend of predictions based mainly on how the teams did the year before. Small intangibles happen over the season and some finish nowhere near where people predicted.

Here's how it worked:

Season Stats:

The system I have developed takes the change in teams overall MLB rank and record from 2006-07 applies to it 2008-09.

  • Whatever a team's 2006 overall record rank was recorded (i.e. the Yankees highest, Astros 14th highest, the Rays 30th, etc.).
  • Then I compared that same team's rank in overall record in 2007 (i.e. Yankees 3rd highest, Astros 21st, Rays 30th, etc).
 
2006 Rank
2007 Rank
Yankees
1
3
Astros

14

21
Rays
30
30

 

I then took the team with 2007 rank that matched the 2006: For example, the Yankees went from the best to third highest record in 2006-07, so I applied the same to the Angels, who had the best record in 2008, and assigned them third best in 2009.

 
2008 Rank
2009 Rank
Angels
1
3
Dodgers
14
21
Nationals
30
30

 

<!-- my page break -->

2009 Regular Season Predictions

(based on 2006-2007 change in team's record)

The predictions are based solely on this concept. I came up with this completely blind, not looking at the team names, just the rank of overall record. So there is absolutely no bias in the Win-Loss Record.  I did have to make some decisions regarding playoff teams by finding similar situations in 2007.

AL East
 
W
L
PCT
b-Toronto Blue Jays
96
66
.593
wc-New York Yankees*
95
68
.583
Boston Red Sox
88
74

.543

Tampa Bay Rays
79
83
.488
Baltimore Orioles
69
93
.454

 

AL Central
 
W
L
PCT
Detroit Tigers
90
72
.556
Cleveland Indians
84
78
.519
Minnesota Twins
83
79

.513

Chicago White Sox
82
80
.506
Kansas City Royals
71
91
.438

 

AL West
 
W
L
PCT
Texas Rangers
96
66
.593
Los Angeles Angels*
94
69
.577
Oakland Athletics
88
74

.488

Seattle Mariners
69
93
.389

*Yankees beat Angels in one-game playoff for wild-card spot (arbitrary decision based on Yankees were the Wild-card winner in 2007 and the best record and wild card came out of the AL East)

 

 

NL East
 
W
L
PCT
b-New York Mets
89
73
.549
Atlanta Braves
83
79
.512
Philadelphia Phillies
76
86

.469

Florida Marlins
75
87
.463
Washington Nationals
66
96
.407

 

NL Central
 
W
L
PCT
Cincinnati Reds
89
73
.549
wc-St. Louis Cardinals
89
73
.549
Chicago Cubs
88
74

.543

Houston Astros
78
84
.481
Milwaukee Brewers
72
90
.444
Pittsburgh Pirates
68
94
.420

 

NL West
 
W
L
PCT
San Diego Padres
85
77
.525
Los Angeles Dodgers
73
89
.451
San Francisco Giants
73
89

.451

Arizona Diamondbacks
72
90
.444
Colorado Rockies
71
91
.438

b: Best Record, wc: Wild Card winner

(Reds given division because of 06-07 equivalent is the Rockies, while the Cardinals' equivalent are the Mets, who did not make the playoffs in 2007.)

<!-- my page break -->Playoffs:

2007 AL Playoff Team 2009 AL Equivalent

Red Sox

Blue Jays

Indians
Rangers
Angels
Tigers
wc-Yankees
wc-Yankees

 

2007 NL Playoff Team 2009 NL Equivalent
Diamondbacks
Reds
Phillies
Mets
Cubs
Padres
wc-Rockies
wc-Cardinals

 

Each series results I made exactly the same as the 2007 playoffs:

 

ALDS

Blue Jays 3-0 over Tigers

Rangers 3-1 over Yankees

 

NLDS

Reds 3-0 over Padres

Cardinals 3-0 over Mets

 

LCS

Blue Jays 4-3 over Rangers

Cardinals 4-0 over Reds

 

World Series

Blue Jays 4-0 over Cardinals

Poll

Best of the American League
Tampa Bay
19%
Boston
19%
Chicago
7%
Minnesota
10%
Los Angeles
17%
Texas
27%
Total votes: 270

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