I know the first thing is getting past the spelling of his last name. Marc Rzepczynski. Once you handle that, you are going to find a pitcher that has the potential to make an impact in all fantasy formats, potentially this season.
The Toronto Blue Jays' fifth round draft pick in 2007, all he has done is produced since being selected. Over his first two seasons of professional baseball (two different levels of Single-A), he went 12-6 with a 2.82 ERA, 1.16 WHIP and 173 K over 166.2 innings. Between Double & Triple-A this season, he has gotten even better, for the most part:
88.0 Innings
2.66 ERA
1.44 WHIP
104 Strikeouts (10.64 K/9)
40 Walks (4.09 BB/9)
.374 BABIP
Some things clearly do not add up. Here’s a pitcher who is walking way too many batters and has been extremely unlucky, yet he has a sparkling ERA? That can be explained by the 13 unearned runs he allowed in the minor leagues. Improved luck would significantly improve his WHIP, though there is another issue to be discussed.
The walks were never as big of a problem as they’ve been this season:
- 2007 (Low Single-A) - 3.4 BB/9
- 2008 (High Single-A) - 3.1 BB/9
So, the question is if this season has been an aberration or if more mature hitters are able to chase pitches out of the strike zone less frequently? It’s still too early to tell, but I have to believe that the control may continue to be an issue for him moving forward.
He walked four over six innings in his major league debut, so it doesn’t appear to be an aberration.
Pitching in the tough AL East, that certainly is something worth noting.
The strikeouts are a different story. He had a K/9 of 9.4 between ‘07 & ‘08, but this season really took things to another level. In his Major League debut, seven batters in just six innings, continuing his dominance.
Baseball America, who ranked him as the team’s No. 9 prospect heading into the season, described his arsenal by saying:
“Rzepczynski pounds the bottom of the strike zone with all four of his pitches, as evidenced by his 3.0 groundout/airout ratio in 2008. His sinker sits at 88-90 mph and touches 92 with tremendous tailing life, while his solid-average slider resides at 82-83 and gives him a weapon to the other side of the plate. His sinking changeup grades as an average pitch.”
He showed that groundball potential in his first major league start, posting a GB% of 61.5 percent. Granted, it was just six innings of work, but it was against a tremendous offense in the Tampa Bay Rays. Prior to his recall, he had posted a 60.9 percent groundball rate, allowing just one home run.
Obviously, he’s not likely to repeat that type of performance, especially having to routinely face the Red Sox and Yankees, but you have to like what you see. The groundball rate he showed in the minors would put him among the elite in the major leagues.
Only one pitcher has a rate greater then 60 percent this season (Joel Pineiro at 61.0 percent). Only a half a dozen pitchers in any given year are likely to have rates in that range.
If he can continue it, while continuing to produce strikeouts, he’s going to be successful at the major league level. If he can also get some semblance of control, then forget about it.
For now, you have to be prepared to accept some ups and downs, as you would from any rookie pitcher. The walks are going to hurt him as are the match-ups. He is clearly not a pitcher that I would depend on, but if the match-up is favorable, he could prove solid.
His next start comes before the break against the Orioles. If he pitches well there, I wouldn’t hesitate to stash him in deeper formats. The Blue Jays are a team constantly looking for starting pitchers thanks to a laundry list of injuries. If he pitches well, he’s going to stick. Shallow yearly leagues, however, are likely to have better options.
What do you think of him? Is he a pitcher you think will develop into a usable option?
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