There is little doubt when someone says that Andrew McCutchen is among the best outfielders in baseball, is there? The question is, at 24 years old, exactly how do we compare him to the rest of the field? Do we rank him based on what he has shown in the past or what we think the future holds (and realize that he could fulfill his potential as soon as 2011)?
By checking out my Top 30 Outfielder Rankings, you know where I fall on the discussion. To me, he already is a top-10 outfielder. Before we get into exactly what I think we can expect from him in 2011, let’s look at what he did in 2010:
570 At-Bats
.286 Batting Average (163 Hits)
16 Home Runs
56 RBI
94 Runs
33 Stolen Bases
.365 On Base Percentage
.449 Slugging Percentage
.311 Batting Average on Balls in Play
Those are very good numbers for his first full professional season and McCutchen certainly has the potential to grow on them. First of all, you have to like the improvement he showed in making contact from his first Major League experience (433 AB in ’09) to last season:
2009 – 19.2 percent strikeout rate
2010 – 15.6 percent strikeout rate
That is the type of improvement you love to see from a young player and certainly gives us hope that he can improve on his average in 2011. Of course, there are numerous other factors that come into play when we discuss average, and all look promising.
First the walk rate, as he has a 10.8 percent mark over his first 1,003 Major League at-bats. When you couple that with his improved strikeout rate, you really get the feeling that the youngster is learning how to command the strike zone.
Next the BABIP, which was an extremely believable number. However, with his speed he certainly has the ability to maintain a much higher mark. Just as a comparison, here are a few speedsters BABIP from 2010:
Ichiro Suzuki – .353
Brett Gardner – .340
Scott Podsednik – .338
Michael Bourn – .329
McCutchen does not put an excessive amount of balls in the air (37.8 percent), so with his wheels it is not unreasonable to see his BABIP increase, potentially substantially. With more luck, McCutchen could easily see his average approach or exceed .300, certainly something that would please fantasy owners.
You also have to think that as he gains experience and strength, he could increase his home run totals. I’m not about to say that he could become a 30 HR threat, but seeing him reach 20 would not be surprising in the least. He had 35 doubles and 5 triples in 2010, so seeing a few more of those find their way over the fence is all it will take.
The RBI and R from 2010 were based on hitting leadoff, but with Jose Tabata on the roster would it surprise anyone if the Pirates shift McCutchen down to the third hole? Yes, that would likely mean a few less runs scored, but significantly more RBI.
If that were to happen, it wouldn’t be unreasonable to think that he could pick up at least 85 R and 85 RBI, making him a lot more valuable than someone who is going to score 95 and only drive in 50.
I also don’t think the shift in the lineup spot would hurt his ability to steal bases either. The Pirates are not a high-powered offense and are going to need to manufacture runs any way they can. That means using their speed, no matter where it is in the lineup.
The bottom line is that we are talking about a player who easily could become a .300/20/85/85/30 player in 2011. In fact, he has the ability to outperform those numbers. How many players in baseball can you say that about?
McCutchen has an ADP of around 50, according to Mock Draft Central. In the early fifth round, to get a player who can help you across the board is a win/win scenario. I wouldn’t hesitate to make that selection every single time.
What about you? Is McCutchen a player you would select that early in your draft? How do you think he can perform in 2011?
Make sure to order your copy of the Rotoprofessor 2011 Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide, selling for just $5, by clicking here.
Make sure to check out some of our 2011 projections:
Buchholz, Clay
Butler, Billy
Choo, Shin-Soo
Ethier, Andre
Freese, David
Hughes, Phil
Jaso, John
Johnson, Chris
Morrow, Brandon
Uggla, Dan
Reyes, Jose
Suzuki, Kurt
Wieters, Matt
Willingham, Josh
Young, Michael
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