For those who were concerned with Clayton Kershaw prior to the season, they certainly had their questions answered early and often in 2010. While the Dodgers opted to shut him down early due to a heavy workload (he went from 171.0 innings in 2009 to 204.1 innings in 2010), that couldn’t put a damper on his amazing campaign.
Let’s take a look at the numbers before putting his success in perspective:
13 Wins
204.1 Innings
2.91 ERA
1.18 WHIP
212 Strikeouts (9.34 K/9)
81 Walks (3.57 BB/9)
.288 BABIP
There’s nothing unrealistic in that line, either. While you would’ve loved to have seen a few more wins, it’s a prime example of why the category is so unpredictable. When you pitch to a sub-3.00 ERA, you are supposed to win more games, right? Unfortunately, bullpens and other factors play a huge role in things.
Sooner or later you have to think he’s going to get luckier, but at this point it hasn’t happened. Just remember, despite a 2.79 ERA in 31 appearances (30 starts) in 2009, he won just eight games.
The biggest concern that owners had for him entering 2010 was the control. In 2009 he posted a BB/9 of 4.79, but he reduced that by more then a walk per nine innings. Considering his minor league BB/9 of 3.72 in 220.0 innings, there was reason for optimism heading into the season. Now, seeing him succeed has to impress owners.
Fully acclimated to the Major Leagues, there is no reason to think that he can’t continue to pitch with better control. Once you couple that with his strikeouts (which we’ll get to momentarily) and his believable BABIP, and you have a pitcher that appears primed to continue posting a strong WHIP.
Speaking of the strikeouts, Kershaw followed up his 9.74 K/9 in ‘09 with another impressive number. He’s clearly proved that he has the stuff to strikeout more then a batter per inning in the Major Leagues, immediately positioning him as one of the better starting pitcher options in the league.
When you put the whole package together, you get a potential Top 10 option in all formats. Just look at what you have:
200-plus strikeout potential (which he accomplished in ‘10).
Sub-3.00 ERA potential (as he’s done the past two years).
Sub-1.15 WHIP potential.
If you want to point to the wins as a drawback, be my guest. Avoid him because his offense or his bullpen let him down over the past two seasons.
However, here’s a thought you should get used to hearing from me this offseason, you just can’t chase wins. They are too unpredictable. When you have a pitcher who brings the other skills to the table, it’s just too good to pass up. Hopefully wins will follow, but there is never a guarantee.
It’ll be interesting to see where he falls when we run our 2011 rankings. I have not yet done my 2011 projection for him, but he certainly has the potential, the stuff and the numbers to be the anchor of your fantasy staff.
What are your thoughts on Kershaw? Do you think he could improve upon his 2010 success? Or do you think he’s in for a regression?
Make sure to check out our 2011 projections:
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