The divisional round of the baseball playoffs begin this week.
All eight teams have at least 90 wins. This is only the third time since 2000 that each playoff team has hit the ninety-win plateau. It certainly means that the cream has risen to the top.
It took the entire 162 game season to clarify the playoff pairings for both leagues.
In the American League the AL East Division title was still up in the air. Tampa Bay's victory assured them the AL East title, and the best record in the league.
For the Senior Circuit the playoff picture was much more confusing as on the final day of the season three teams battled for the last two spots.
The simplest scenario prevailed when Atlanta won and San Francisco defeated San Diego.
Going into the last day of the season only the Phillies knew for sure where they would play when the divisional playoffs began. Philadelphia clinched the best record in the NL and the advantage of the series-deciding game to be held at Citizen Bank Park throughout the playoffs and the World Series.
Cincinnati had qualified for the playoffs, but where they would open the playoffs and against whom, was not determined until after the Giants beat the Padres.
Here are the opening round match ups:
National League:
Cincinnati (NL Central) at Philadelphia (NL East), Wednesday October 6th, 5:07 pm EST.
Atlanta (WC) at San Francicso (NL West), Thursday October 7th, 9:37pm EST.
American League:
Texas (AL West) at Tampa Bay (AL East), Wednesday October 6th, 1:37 pm EST.
New York (WC) at Minnesota (AL Central), Wednesday October 6th, 8:37 pm EST.
As the playoffs begin on Wednesday here are some questions to be considered as we head into the divisional round of the playoffs:
Does the best record in the league translate into success?
Heading into the final weekend in the American League, Minnesota, Tampa Bay, and New York all had a shot at the league's best record.
While the Rays and Yankees were battling for the AL East crown, the Twins were resting their starters and setting up their playoff rotation.
Over the past 10 years the team with the most wins in each league has made it to the World Series six times. That means only 30 percent of the time does the best league record even make it to the World Series.
For the AL, the team with the most wins has advanced to the World Series four times, winning three of them.
For the NL, only twice has the best record made it to the Fall Classic failing to win either time.
In 2002 the best records from each league squared off. Boston, with 96 wins, defeated Colorado, who with 90 wins tied with Arizona for the most wins in the NL but was awarded the wild card on a tie breaker.
Since 2001 the World Series Champions have averaged 94 wins, while the runner up has done better winning an average of 95.4 games.
This would indicate, that when given the opportunity, the best strategy is to rest your starters and get healthy for a long playoff run.
This would point to a Minnesota (94-68) vs. Philadelphia (97-65) World Series match up, with the Twins winning.
Division Champ or Wildcard—is there an advantage?
There have been discussions about changing the current playoff format.
Some analysts have suggested that two wildcard teams face off in a one game playoff between the two best second-place teams.
This would force them to not only play an extra game, but to use their best available starter, essentially removing him from the divisional playoff series until possibly game four.
Since 2000 a wildcard team has won the World Series only three times. That's a measly 15 percent of the time.
Even with the current format, the past 10 years indicate that there is a disadvantage coming in as the wildcard.
That does not bode well for the New York Yankees and the Atlanta Braves.
How important is momentum going into the playoffs?
For those teams that clinch a playoff spot early, is it more important to continue their winning ways or to set their playoff rotation and give their regulars time off to recover from the grind of the regular season?
How the participants in the past 10 World Series have finished their regular season provides some insight.
Since 2001 only 10 of 36 teams in the divisional round have made it to the Championship Series when entering the post season with five or fewer wins in their final 10 games.
The divisional round winners had an average winning percent of .620, while those making a first round exit had a .590 winning percentage.
Not a huge difference perhaps, but enough to suggest winning leads to more winning.
That being the case, only the Texas Rangers in the AL and the Philadelphia Phillies, and the San Francisco Giants in the NL enter the post season with a winning record over the last 10 games.
So what's my prediction?
Based on nothing but the past performance of playoff teams in their final 10 games and the record of the of World Series participants it will be the Texas Rangers against the Philadelphia Phillies.
Of course there's always the disclaimer that past performance is not an indication of future events.
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