With an NL Only draft on my schedule for the night I thought this would be the perfect time to offer up an NL Only draft primer.
These NL Only leagues are a whole different ballgame than the mixed leagues. If you don’t come to one of these drafts prepared you will probably find yourself a bit overwhelmed as the talent pool can dry up awfully fast. If you haven’t done your research you may get a bit lost come the end of the draft. Hopefully some of the things that I will focus on here can help you with your research process.
There are a few things I want to take a look at that are more relevant to non-mixed leagues. The first thing I want to do is look at position scarcity, which plays much more of a role in these kind of leagues than in a mixed league.
Position Scarcity
Not keeping an eye on things like position scarcity can lead to Fernando Tatis playing third base for your team.
I am going to look at some of the positions that are the weakest, but the biggest thing for you to do is keep an eye on every position as the draft is progressing. A position that looks deep on paper can change very quickly in the actual draft because while the top 10 may not look bad at third base if Mark Reynolds and Pablo Sandoval get drafted by teams to play first base than things are going to start thinning out in a hurry.
Also keep your specific format in mind. The league I am drafting in tonight has both a corner and middle infield position. So if I wait too long at second base tonight I’m not guaranteed the 10th best guy, because people will be filling there MI spots the whole time and I’m going to be looking at Jeff Keppinger and Juan Uribe as my best choices.
Keep this in mind to avoid such a gloomy fate.
Catcher is obviously one of the most scarce positions so I won’t spend a lot of time there, but I will look at spots you might not realize are considered scarce.
Depending on the league that you are in, outfield can become a problem position in a hurry. The league I am in has four OF spots and some leagues have five. If you are in one of those leagues be prepared to dig deep.
Considering there are 16 teams in the NL and three starters per team you only have 48 starting OF’s and you’ll have 40 guys starting in your league not counting guys being drafted at other positions and UTIL.
Other than OF the spot I think has the most scarcity would be second base. After Utley, Phillips, and Uggla your choices become a mixture of guys who are either injury prone, have high potential but are unproven, on the downside of their career, or are simply just mediocre players.
Now I am not saying you should spend your first six picks taking, Utley, McCann, and four different OF’s. But keep this in the back of your mind: If it’s the eighth round and your picking between Todd Helton and Rickie Weeks consider what’s left at those positions.
Perhaps you could get Adam Laroche, Jorge Cantu, or Garrett Jones in the next round if you pass on Helton where as if you don’t take Weeks you could be looking at Felipe Lopez, Clint Barmes, and Akinori Iwamura. Nothing against those guys who aren’t terrible, but where is the bigger step down? These are things you have to consider in this kind of league.
Position Flexibility
Another thing to be aware of is the guys who have position flexibility. A guy who can play at multiple positions can be a treasure in these leagues, particularly when filling our your bench.
My draft tonight will have five bench spots, but some have as few as three. With that few of bench positions it’s very nice to have a guy on that bench who you can plug in at a number of different places.
Position flexibility shouldn’t elevate guys too high, but if your choosing between say Casey McGahee and Scott Rolen and there really isn’t much separating them in your mind, than take McGahee who can play 3B, 2B, MI, and CI compared to Rolen who is limited to just 3B and CI.
Here are some of the guys who have multiple position eligibility and you can get late:
- Ian Stewart (2B/3B)
- Casey McGehee (2B/3B)
- Jerry Hairston Jr (SS/3B/OF)
- Emilio Bonaficio (SS/3B)
- Chase Headley (3B/OF)
- Martin Prado (1B/2B/3B)
- Adam Kennedy (2B/3B)
- Augie Ojeda (2B/SS/3B)
- Jorge Cantu (1B/3B)
- Julio Lugo (2B/SS)
NL Only Sleepers
Sleepers in a league like this will be different than those in a mixed league. Guys on this list are probably guys you would most likely not consider in a normal 10 team mixed league, but are worth a look in this type of league.
Kyle Blanks: He isn’t getting much press this year because he plays in San Diego, but that’s one of the reasons I have him on this list. He doesn’t have much competition in the outfield so he should be an everyday starter.
Not only will he be a starter, but with the power he showed last year he’ll likely hit in the middle of the line up somewhere between three to five.
His power wasn’t a fluke. He’s shown he can hit at every level and with his 450 AB’s and 30 HR’s at the age of only 23 he is far from his ceiling.
Pedro Alvarez: He looked impressive in the minors last year hitting over 280 with 27 HR’s. If he was in a different farm system I wouldn’t put him here, but the Pirates are short on talent and Alvarez is the bright spot in a bleak franchise.
I don’t think he’ll do what Longoria did a couple years ago, but I do think he’ll have the same opportunity and if he doesn’t make the big league team out of the gates he’ll be there before June.
Sean West: He’s competing for a spot in the Florida rotation this spring and my money says he’ll get it. And even if he doesn’t he has to be a guy to keep an eye on considering the inconsistency and injury issues of the Florida Marlins starters.
He’s 6’8", throws in the mid 90’s, and has decent control—never walking more than four guys in a game last year. I don’t expect amazing consistency, but I do expect flashes of greatness this year, a steady rise in K’s that I think will be higher than 7 K/9, and somewhere between 10–12 wins.
I wouldn’t take him in a mixed league, but I really like the potential value in an NL Only league.
Closers in Waiting
This is another big thing in NL Only leagues.
Saves come at a premium and you would do wise to make sure you get at least one solid guy. Your certainly not guaranteed a second guy though, so it’s essential to nab a couple guys who could poach saves during the year or take over the job at some point. The key thing here is opportunity.
Here are a few guys who could be closing before the end of the year due to either injury or inconsistency from the current closer.
John Grabow: I don’t trust Carlos Marmol at all. He walks too many guys and is too inconsistent. Unless he takes a step forward this year I predict the Cubs will be looking for someone else sooner than later.
Grabow doesn’t have the best track record with walks either, but he does seem much more consistent as a whole and because there are a lack of other options he could get the job by default if Marmol falters.
However, keep an eye on Jeff Gray who came over as the biggest piece in the Jake Fox trade and may make a splash this year.
Takashi Saito: This is not anything against Wagner who I actually like this year. However we all know he is injury prone and the chances of him being healthy for the whole year isn’t great. Couple that with the fact that Saito is one of the better setup men out there and he’s worth a late round pick.
Luke Gregerson: This is once again nothing against the guy closing games right now. Heath Bell was great last year and I expect a repeat performance, but if the Padres are out of it at the deadline Bell could be big time trade bait. If that happens Gregerson should step into the role and could be a very nice surprise. Not to mention with 93 K’s in 75 IP last year he can be helpful as nothing more than a setup man.
Drafting Starting Pitching
This is the last thing I want to touch on and it may be more my own personal preference, but I believe in non-mixed leagues that the idea of waiting on pitching goes out the window.
In mixed leagues you can wait until the seventh or eighth round to take your first pitcher and still get Chris Carpenter, Yovani Gallardo, or Josh Beckett.
If you do that in an NL Only League your looking at Ryan Dempster or Roy Oswalt. In my opinion your best strategy is to grab one of the big six guys (see below) and than grab a No. 2 in the seventh or eighth round where Oswalt and Dempster as your No. 2 is much more appealing.
After this you can just grab value guys as they're available. You don’t want to be forced into taking a bunch of pitchers in the middle rounds higher than they should go because you missed out on one of the big guys early. If you do miss out on one of the big six, don’t miss out on the next tier of guys I have listed below.
Big 6 SP’s
Tim Lincecum
Roy Halladay
Adam Wainwright
Dan Haren
Johan Santana
Chris Carpenter
Guys who could emerge as fantasy aces
Tommy Hanson
Yovani Gallardo
Josh Johnson
Cole Hamels
Ubaldo Jimmenez
Clayton Kershaw
So that’s it for the NL Only Primer. I will post a recap of my NL Only Draft in the next couple days and than look for the same thing for the AL sometime next week. Feel free to give your thoughts.
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